Author | Lightnews

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · May 28

Economic data week ending 5/31:

5/29 at 8:30am: GDP Q1 first revision. Previous Q1 GDP numbers crushed the S&P and saw a day of much higher volatility.

5/30 at 8:30am: PCE data

It's hard to keep up with what tariffs exist and which are postponed. PCE should start reflecting this.

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · May 21

No economic data this week to pay attention to. Instead, it's more just waiting for momentum to pick up in either direction. The last week has seen the VIX going down and SPY upside stalling out. The catalyst for further upside is headlines around trade deals. #S&P500 #Stocks

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · May 12

Economic data week ending 5/17:

May 13th, 8:30am: CPI
May 15th, 8:30am: PPI
May 15th, 8:40am: Jpowell speech

Current headlines around trade deals are stealing the show from any other market moving news. That being said, it's still important to pay attention to the inflation readings.

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · May 9

The end of today's trading day wasn't confidence inspiring but at least #SPY ended up. If SPY can get another 1% higher before any sell off, I think that'll be enough to go bullish. The major story line is will Trump get any trade deals. If yes, be bullish, if no, stay bearish. #S&P500 #Daytrade

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · May 7

Today was very muted compared to standard Fed Press Conference days. #Jpowell gave another higher for longer and wait and see speech. To me, he sounded nervous at the start with a hint of optimism toward the end. I'm paying extra attention to tomorrow's movement. #Daytrade #SPY #Stocks

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · May 7

#SPY ended lower today but I wouldn't look too closely at today's movement. Tomorrow's press conference is what will determine the next leg up or down. The Fed's ideas around how tariffs will affect the rate cut path is what I'm waiting for news on. #Daytrade #S&P500 #Stocks

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · May 6

It turns out #SPY can go down. With the Fed meeting just around the corner that's where all eyes will be. There's been many times in the past when a single question during the press conference changed the direction of day. Sit tight until then and see what #Jpowell says. #Daytrade #Stocks

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · May 5

Economic data week ending 5/10:

May 7th 2pm: Fed Interest rate decision.

May 7th 2:30pm: Fed chair Powell press conference.

Wednesday is very important. There's almost no chance of a rate cut but Powell's thoughts on the economy moving forward will be important.

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · May 3

Another solid up day for #SPY as it ends +1.46%. We're still trading upward without beneficial news, just hopes and dreams. If you are holding calls, I wouldn't blame you for continuing to hold. Headline risk does seem to be leaning towards possible good news. #Daytrade #S&P500 #Stocks

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · May 2

#SPY opened higher and closed near the open. This is a decent follow through after yesterday's V recovery. With the final 10 minutes moving lower I wouldn't be holding for an additional day. For a longer position, I'm still waiting for the news to match the movement. #Daytrade #S&P500 #Stocks

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · May 1

I didn't have GDP numbers on my list of market moving data but I'll have to add it for the next few months. Today was the first time I've seen it affect the stock market like this. With #SPY having a giant V recovery that certainly feels bullish for the next couple days. #Daytrade #Stocks #S&P500

1

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · Apr 29

Last week #SPY did close above $546 but it wasn't accompanied by good tariff news. Markets are moving on the hopes of tariff decreases and not the reality of how companies are affected. The story line is conflicting so I'm going to sit on the sideline. Lots of earnings and economic data this week.

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · Apr 29

Economic data week ending 5/2:

PCE - Wednesday at 10am.
Unemployment data - Friday at 830am.

We're almost at the point where tariffs will be affecting these data releases. There's also plenty of companies with earnings this week.

1

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · Apr 24

#SPY closed at $546.55, right at the $546 level I'm watching. Markets have been trending higher in tariff cut hopes but there's still no good news. If tomorrow is an additional follow through day and the Whitehouse gives a solid trade news update, I could see a ton of upside potential. #Daytrade

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · Apr 23

#SPY ended up +1.55% but at one point today was up over 3%. Half the day's gains were erased as tariff deal optimism fell off. SPY still hasn't eclipsed where it was during that huge 9% up day. If we can get above $546 on solid momentum, I may change my bearish thesis. Until then, still bearish.

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · Apr 23

Dip buyers did in fact come in today. News of "possible" deals fueling the market. Headline risk in either direction remains high and even when bearish its still best to stay out and wait for a basing pattern in price action or actual good news on tariffs. #Stocks #Daytrade #SPY

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · Apr 22

#SPY down 2.36%. Tomorrow will be very telling if dip buyers come in. Right now my assumption is that we're going to retest the recent swing low fairly soon. Markets are on edge with recent Trump comments and no good news (yet) on trade deals. Bearish until proven otherwise. #Stocks #S&P500

1

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · Apr 21

navigating the questions from the media. When asked a leading question, he'd always provid a data driven answer. I have the utmost respect for how well he's done in his role. If Trump is able to fire him early and install a yes man, that will be the straw that broke the camel's back. #Stocks #S&P500

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · Apr 21

Possibly. But the data driven approach combined with an unwavering desire to remain free from politics has led the U.S. back to a point where inflation was under control. They're now much more agile and have the experience needed to make the correct decisions. Jpowell has also been fantastic at

1

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · Apr 21

Economic data week ending 4/26:

None!

Instead today I'll speak about the continued attack on #Jpowell by the Trump admin. Over the last several years I have been very impressed with how the fed board has conducted themselves. Did they initially wait too long to raise rates during covid?

1

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · Apr 18

A choppy sideways day for the S&P. While this was a green day there wasn't enough movement to change my short term thesis. Still bearish till proven otherwise. Markets are closed tomorrow so make sure to get outside and enjoy the fresh air! #Stocks #S&P500 #SPY 📈

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · Apr 16

Bessent's comment was just about the two day ratio when the "tariff pause" was announced. It's a pretty short sighted thing to say given that the market direction isn't determined by two days of movement.

1 1

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · Apr 16

All the signs were there for today to be a return to the downside. #SPY ended down 2.21%. Fed chair Powell warning that keeping inflation under control with these tariffs is going to be a challenge. This was an expected speech but the market was hoping for signs of rate cuts. #Stocks #Daytrade

1

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · Apr 15

I'd describe the last few days as a counter trend that's reaching its exhaustion point. We saw plenty of Sell The Rip taking place and #SPY ended lower by 0.26% after initially gaining. My assumption is a resumed downtrend through the remainder of the week. #Stocks #S&P500

Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · Apr 15

No economic data this week to pay attention to.

#SPY ended slightly higher but the start and end of the day was down. Tariffs between the US and China are still being decided and a lot is still up in the air right now. I'm still being patient. #Stocks #S&P500