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Jeffrey H. Michaels

@jmichael424.bsky.social

230 followers 130 following 16 posts

Affiliated with King's College London, Oxford CCW, RAND Europe, and the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies.

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Political science 82%

Sociology 10%

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Reposted by Jeffrey Michaels, Charles T. Mathewes

War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 7d

What if China doesn’t invade Taiwan the way we expect?

A Wargame to Take Taiwan, from China’s Perspective

In August 2025, 25 international experts gathered at Syracuse University to do something unusual: plan China's invasion of Taiwan. For two days,

warontherocks.com

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Reposted by Jeffrey Michaels

War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 7d

Current Taiwan wargames may be preparing for the wrong war.

A Wargame to Take Taiwan, from China’s Perspective

In August 2025, 25 international experts gathered at Syracuse University to do something unusual: plan China's invasion of Taiwan. For two days,

warontherocks.com

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Jeffrey H. Michaels @jmichael424.bsky.social · Jun 11

www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/t...

Top military chief says soldiers were issued bayonets for DC unrest, documents show some were not trained in riot response

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has confirmed a report by The Associated Press that some of the service members who were mobilized to Washington, D.C., last month in response to civil unrest...

www.cnbc.com

Jeffrey H. Michaels @jmichael424.bsky.social · Jun 11

daily.jstor.org/the-bayonet-...

The Bayonet: What’s the Point? - JSTOR Daily

According to one scholar, the military sees training in this obsolete weapon as helpful on the modern battlefield.

daily.jstor.org

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Jeffrey H. Michaels @jmichael424.bsky.social · Jun 11

If so, they've chosen a rather cryptic way of communicating it. Between the SDR and the Sunday Times story that preceded it, the government seems to prefer the trial balloon approach rather than making a firm commitment.

Jeffrey H. Michaels @jmichael424.bsky.social · Jun 11

Very much hope you can follow this with a study on the contemporary utility of the bayonet

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Reposted by Jeffrey Michaels

Matthew Ford @warmatters.bsky.social · Jun 11

@thewavellroom.bsky.social kindly published my article on small arms and the challenges facing those British Army officers working on replacing SA80 as part of Project GRAYBURN.

wavellroom.com/2025/06/11/t...

The false promise of new technology: the British Army and the (new) calibre debate

Ammunition calibre. Should bullets be larger or smaller? It's key debate for thinking about warfare. Read one expert view .

wavellroom.com

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Reposted by Jeffrey Michaels

HCSS - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies @hcss.bsky.social · Jun 11

🚨 The latest HCSS report by strategic advisor @jmichael424.bsky.social is recommended by Retd Army Major General @warinthefuture.bsky.social Mick Ryan as one of the top five war and national security reads of the week:

The Big Five - 8 June edition

My regular update on global conflict. This week, a Pacific-focus with the Trump-Xi call, Chinese spies in Taiwan and a detailed look at Taiwan’s evolving version of Ukraine’s drone wall concept.

buff.ly

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Reposted by Jeffrey Michaels

HCSS - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies @hcss.bsky.social · Jun 4

Deterring with words? It’s cheaper, faster—and just as vital.

A new guide by HCSS strategic advisor @jmichael424.bsky.social explores how NATO and others have used (and misused) verbal warnings, from WWI to Ukraine.

📝 Read more:
hcss.nl/news/new-rep...

New report | Deterrence Warning Messages: A Short Guide for NATO - HCSS

Why do deterrence efforts fail? Often, it’s not what is said, but how it’s said. In a new report, HCSS strategic advisor Dr. Jeffrey H. Michaels explores how the success or failure of deterrence often...

hcss.nl

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Reposted by Jeffrey Michaels

HCSS - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies @hcss.bsky.social · Jun 3

🚨 Why do deterrence efforts fail? Often, it’s not what is said, but how it’s said.

New report by HCSS strategic advisor @jmichael424.bsky.social explores the power—and pitfalls—of deterrence warning messages.

📘 Read more:
hcss.nl/report/deter...

Deterrence Warning Messages: A Short Guide for NATO - HCSS

hcss.nl

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Substack

Deterrence Warning Messages

Can words prevent war? What if deterrence failures are not only about what is threatened, but how those threats are communicated?

Reposts 0 Jun 3

Jeffrey H. Michaels @jmichael424.bsky.social · Jun 2

Rather curious use of the word 'expected':

"The externally-led review is expected to recommend that our Armed Forces move to warfighting readiness to deter the growing threats faced by the UK. The report makes 62 recommendations, which the government is expected to accept in full."

Reposted by Jeffrey Michaels

HCSS - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies @hcss.bsky.social · Jun 1

🚨 Words matter: from WWI to Ukraine, poorly delivered warnings have often led to deterrence failure.

Coming this week: a new HCSS report by @jmichael424.bsky.social‬ shows how NATO can get deterrence right—starting with communication.

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Jeffrey H. Michaels @jmichael424.bsky.social · Dec 5

PS: I'm not sure how feasible this was in any event

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Jeffrey H. Michaels @jmichael424.bsky.social · Dec 5

Always a tricky balance during CW. So much depended on Sov objectives + Sov willingness to initiate nuclear use if they felt opposition too strong. Thus legitimate question of utility of large scale conventional defence but I'd still prefer that option to the alternative.

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Jeffrey H. Michaels @jmichael424.bsky.social · Dec 5

Quite so although sadly never really replaced with anything better. Approach seems to be 'insufficient and lose' rather than 'insufficient and escalate'. Doubtful 'insufficient and replace' ever taken seriously and never properly resourced.

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Jeffrey H. Michaels @jmichael424.bsky.social · Dec 5

So much for the Cold War 'deliberate insufficiency' concept of escalating to nuclear use after the army is expended

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Jeffrey H. Michaels @jmichael424.bsky.social · Dec 3

News agencies swarming to Bolivia to get a comment from Edward Luttwak!

Shashank Joshi @shashj.bsky.social · Dec 3

If you declare martial law & several hours later the country’s principal news agency has as its main headline that parliament has repealed your martial law, and none of the provisions of that law have been enforced, then your coup has failed.

Reposted by Jeffrey Michaels, Bence Németh

Shashank Joshi @shashj.bsky.social · Dec 3

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Jeffrey H. Michaels @jmichael424.bsky.social · Dec 3

If you can find a version with English subtitles, I can recommend this series: program.imbc.com/5republic

제5공화국 | 만나면 좋은 친구 MBC

방송종료 2005.04.23~2005.09.11 - <제5공화국>은 사실(fact)만을 기록하는 다큐멘터리도 아니고, 그렇다고 작가의 상상력만으로 만들어내는 허구(fiction)도 아니다. 정확히 말하면 사실의 효과를 높이기 위해 작가의 상상력이 추가된 팩션(faction=fact+fiction)이다. 이 팩션의 성공여부는 역사의 맥락을 얼마나 정당하게 묘...

program.imbc.com

Jeffrey H. Michaels @jmichael424.bsky.social · Dec 3

By South Korean standards at any rate

Jeffrey H. Michaels @jmichael424.bsky.social · Nov 21

Another corker from Andrew Lambert
www.the-tls.co.uk/history/mode...

The Navy’s vital role in Britain’s past and future

The third and final instalment of N. A. M. Rodger’s erudite, engaging naval history of the British Isles places the Royal Navy at the centre of national

www.the-tls.co.uk

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Jeffrey H. Michaels @jmichael424.bsky.social · Nov 20

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Deterrence Studies: A field still in progress

This article reviews three recent books covering a broad spectrum of deterrence research and uses them to argue for a properly constituted field of Deterrence Studies. Having declined after the Col...

www.tandfonline.com

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Jeffrey H. Michaels @jmichael424.bsky.social · Nov 20

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Politically unthinkable? The missing dimension of nuclear use scenarios | European Journal of International Security | Cambridge Core

Politically unthinkable? The missing dimension of nuclear use scenarios

www.cambridge.org

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Substack

Deterrence Messaging Prior to 24 February 2022

This post consists of a compilation of various official statements made in the months prior to 24 February 2022 that warned Russia of the consequences it would incur should it renew its aggression against Ukraine. To be clear, this is not a comprehensive list. Nevertheless, it is representative of the types of public statements conveyed, both in terms o…

Reposts 0 Nov 1

Substack

Deterrence Dictionary

Deterrence: “the prevention of action by the existence of a credible threat of unacceptable counteraction and/or belief that the cost of action outweighs the perceived benefits”[1]

Reposts 0 Aug 8

Substack

There's No Such Thing as Self-Deterrence?

About one month ago I jumped on the Substack bandwagon wanting my own space to write and rant about all things deterrence. Until today one thing or another popped up and the Substack remained low on the priority list. However, scrolling through my Twitter feed yesterday afternoon I came across a tweet from one of my favorite academics, Sergey Radchenko,…

Reposts 0 Apr 22

Substack

Coming soon

This is Deterrence Now Substack.

Reposts 0 Mar 25