Jonathan Libgober
@jlibdoesecon.bsky.social
AP in Econ at USC. I do Information Economics & more, both pure and applied. Best friend of Spinoza (Nosik) Petrov-Libgober, husband of @lenapetrova.bsky.social, and brother of @blibgober.bsky.social.
My paper on research registries with Eliot Abrams and
John List is now forthcoming at Economic Journal:
academic.oup.com/ej/advance-a...
Very happy to finally have finished up this project, although I learned a ton from working on it.
John List is now forthcoming at Economic Journal:
academic.oup.com/ej/advance-a...
Very happy to finally have finished up this project, although I learned a ton from working on it.
Research Registries and the Credibility Crisis: An Empirical and Theoretical Investigation
Abstract. We analyze one prominent policy solution to the credibility crisis in experimental research—research registries—with primary focus on the AEA RCT
academic.oup.com
October 31, 2025 at 5:50 PM
My paper on research registries with Eliot Abrams and
John List is now forthcoming at Economic Journal:
academic.oup.com/ej/advance-a...
Very happy to finally have finished up this project, although I learned a ton from working on it.
John List is now forthcoming at Economic Journal:
academic.oup.com/ej/advance-a...
Very happy to finally have finished up this project, although I learned a ton from working on it.
This was a fun one! Glad to see it in a great home.
Forthcoming in AEJ: Microeconomics: "Higher-Order Beliefs and (Mis)learning from Prices" by Kevin He and Jonathan Libgober. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Higher-Order Beliefs and (Mis)learning from Prices
(Forthcoming Article) - We study misperceptions of private-signal correlation in an incomplete-information
Cournot duopoly game. Exaggerating the correlation between players’ demand signals is
benefic...
www.aeaweb.org
October 28, 2025 at 10:17 PM
This was a fun one! Glad to see it in a great home.
I've discovered that you have much more fun as a tourist if you don't know what the exchange rate is.
July 28, 2025 at 4:28 PM
I've discovered that you have much more fun as a tourist if you don't know what the exchange rate is.
I feel like I've heard critiques of economics as a discipline since as long as I've studied economics. Has anyone done a historiography of this?
I guess it's a sign of the field's influence that people seem to care so much, so maybe it's a good thing. At the same time, I can't help but think...why?
I guess it's a sign of the field's influence that people seem to care so much, so maybe it's a good thing. At the same time, I can't help but think...why?
July 26, 2025 at 12:26 PM
I feel like I've heard critiques of economics as a discipline since as long as I've studied economics. Has anyone done a historiography of this?
I guess it's a sign of the field's influence that people seem to care so much, so maybe it's a good thing. At the same time, I can't help but think...why?
I guess it's a sign of the field's influence that people seem to care so much, so maybe it's a good thing. At the same time, I can't help but think...why?
Huge congrats to my amazing colleague and her coauthors on this fantastic paper.
Forthcoming in the AER: "Labor Market Power, Self-Employment, and Development" by Francesco Amodio, Pamela Medina, and Monica Morlacco. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Labor Market Power, Self-Employment, and Development
(Forthcoming Article) - This paper shows that self-employment shapes labor market power
in low-income countries, with implications for industrial devel-
opment. Using Peruvian data, we find that wage-...
www.aeaweb.org
July 15, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Huge congrats to my amazing colleague and her coauthors on this fantastic paper.
Reposted by Jonathan Libgober
New post on prediction markets, opinion polls, and the New York City mayor's race: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
Markets, Models, and Mamdani
Political prediction markets have been around for decades, but rose to unprecedented visibility and prominence during the last election cycle in the United States.
open.substack.com
June 28, 2025 at 6:34 PM
New post on prediction markets, opinion polls, and the New York City mayor's race: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
Reposted by Jonathan Libgober
New post on the realization after two decades of Poindexter's dream: rajivsethi.substack.com/p/betting-on...
Betting on Geopolitical Violence
Back in 2003, a Pentagon office led by Admiral John M.
rajivsethi.substack.com
June 18, 2025 at 10:18 PM
New post on the realization after two decades of Poindexter's dream: rajivsethi.substack.com/p/betting-on...
Seems that I jumped ahead of this a little bit...
Recently accepted to #REStud, "Retractions: Updating from Complex Information," from Gonçalves, Libgober, and Willis:
www.restud.com/retractions-...
#EconSky #Complexity
www.restud.com/retractions-...
#EconSky #Complexity
May 17, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Seems that I jumped ahead of this a little bit...
Less related to recent events than it may seem, but I wanted to post this at some point:
My Retractions paper, with brilliant coauthors Duarte Goncalves and Jack Willis, was accepted at Restud earlier this year, and is now on the journal's website.
www.restud.com/retractions-...
My Retractions paper, with brilliant coauthors Duarte Goncalves and Jack Willis, was accepted at Restud earlier this year, and is now on the journal's website.
www.restud.com/retractions-...
Retractions: Updating from Complex Information - The Review of Economic Studies
We modify a canonical experimental design to identify the effectiveness of retractions. Comparing beliefs after retractions to beliefs (a) without the retracted information and (b) after equivalent ne...
www.restud.com
May 17, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Less related to recent events than it may seem, but I wanted to post this at some point:
My Retractions paper, with brilliant coauthors Duarte Goncalves and Jack Willis, was accepted at Restud earlier this year, and is now on the journal's website.
www.restud.com/retractions-...
My Retractions paper, with brilliant coauthors Duarte Goncalves and Jack Willis, was accepted at Restud earlier this year, and is now on the journal's website.
www.restud.com/retractions-...
An important paper on the role of subjective beliefs on the business cycle, now published in Restud.
academic.oup.com/restud/advan...
academic.oup.com/restud/advan...
Survey Data and Subjective Beliefs in Business Cycle Models
Abstract. This paper develops a theory of subjective beliefs that departs from rational expectations, and shows that biases in household beliefs have quant
academic.oup.com
May 9, 2025 at 5:20 PM
An important paper on the role of subjective beliefs on the business cycle, now published in Restud.
academic.oup.com/restud/advan...
academic.oup.com/restud/advan...
My paper on algorithmic pricing, joint with In-Koo Cho, is now online at the Journal of Economic Theory.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Learning underspecified models
This paper examines learning dynamics under non-parametric model uncertainty. We choose the monopolistic profit maximization problem (Myerson (1981)) …
www.sciencedirect.com
April 29, 2025 at 4:39 PM
My paper on algorithmic pricing, joint with In-Koo Cho, is now online at the Journal of Economic Theory.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
My dog will literally climb on top of me while I'm working on my laptop but then start to growl in discomfort if I hug him back. Make it make sense.
April 22, 2025 at 2:59 AM
My dog will literally climb on top of me while I'm working on my laptop but then start to growl in discomfort if I hug him back. Make it make sense.
Reposted by Jonathan Libgober
Attempted murder of a Jewish governor and his family on Passover is not a headline story for @nytimes.com and @washingtonpost.com. I’m relieved that Shapiro and his family survived the attack.
April 14, 2025 at 12:42 AM
Attempted murder of a Jewish governor and his family on Passover is not a headline story for @nytimes.com and @washingtonpost.com. I’m relieved that Shapiro and his family survived the attack.
As an economist, here is my take on how to understand the justification for Trump's tariffs.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kettle_...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kettle_...
Kettle logic - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
April 8, 2025 at 5:44 AM
As an economist, here is my take on how to understand the justification for Trump's tariffs.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kettle_...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kettle_...
I've taught game theory for several years now (maybe like, 10 times?) but somehow it only now just hit me that mixed strategies in Bayesian games are pretty damn weird.
March 13, 2025 at 5:45 AM
I've taught game theory for several years now (maybe like, 10 times?) but somehow it only now just hit me that mixed strategies in Bayesian games are pretty damn weird.
Reposted by Jonathan Libgober
New York Times, Jan. 26, 1935.
March 2, 2025 at 4:46 PM
New York Times, Jan. 26, 1935.
The only part I don't like about this is that now we may be forced to spell it "defence."
Excellent stuff. “Starmer announces that the UK government will allow Ukraine to use £1.6bn of UK export finance to buy more than five thousand air defence missiles. He says these will be made in Belfast, creating jobs in the UK's defence sector” www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
Zelensky-Starmer latest: Starmer to give news conference after Ukraine summit with European leaders
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen describes the summit as a
www.bbc.co.uk
March 2, 2025 at 11:21 PM
The only part I don't like about this is that now we may be forced to spell it "defence."
Reposted by Jonathan Libgober
If I shared the ITYSL meme with Tim Robinson in the hot dog suit every time a Republican said that Putin is out of control, I wouldn't have time to do anything else.
February 19, 2025 at 4:46 AM
If I shared the ITYSL meme with Tim Robinson in the hot dog suit every time a Republican said that Putin is out of control, I wouldn't have time to do anything else.
Rubio has like, what, 5 months left on the job?
February 17, 2025 at 7:51 AM
Rubio has like, what, 5 months left on the job?
Roses are red,
A noise ball is blue,
But when you find out it's noise,
The info will not undo.
uploads.strikinglycdn.com/files/8779d7...
A noise ball is blue,
But when you find out it's noise,
The info will not undo.
uploads.strikinglycdn.com/files/8779d7...
uploads.strikinglycdn.com
February 15, 2025 at 12:52 AM
Roses are red,
A noise ball is blue,
But when you find out it's noise,
The info will not undo.
uploads.strikinglycdn.com/files/8779d7...
A noise ball is blue,
But when you find out it's noise,
The info will not undo.
uploads.strikinglycdn.com/files/8779d7...
Chiefs can still win this if Mike Pence has the courage to do the right thing.
February 10, 2025 at 2:08 AM
Chiefs can still win this if Mike Pence has the courage to do the right thing.
Honestly, staying away from social media during the impending collapse of the federal government/American society is a pretty good move for overall mental health.
February 8, 2025 at 5:13 AM
Honestly, staying away from social media during the impending collapse of the federal government/American society is a pretty good move for overall mental health.
Today I asked my class if anyone had seen "A Beautiful Mind." Nobody raised their hands. I was in shock, until I realized that they probably hadn't been born when it came out...
February 3, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Today I asked my class if anyone had seen "A Beautiful Mind." Nobody raised their hands. I was in shock, until I realized that they probably hadn't been born when it came out...
If only LA's construction of the LAX people mover had the same urgency of USC's construction of its new football stadium....
January 29, 2025 at 8:36 PM
If only LA's construction of the LAX people mover had the same urgency of USC's construction of its new football stadium....