Jonathan Tonkin
@jdtonkin.bsky.social
Dad | Associate Professor & Rutherford Discovery Fellow @UCNZ | #ecology, #biodiversity, #forecasting, #freshwater, #climatechange | surf obsessed | https://tonkinlab.org | 18K weekly newsletter. Subscribe: https://predirections.substack.com
Pinned
Jonathan Tonkin
@jdtonkin.bsky.social
· May 29
Ecological and evolutionary consequences of changing seasonality
Climate change and other anthropogenic drivers alter seasonal regimes across freshwater, terrestrial, and marine biomes. Seasonal patterns affect ecological and evolutionary processes at different eco...
www.science.org
If you think the seasons are feeling… different, you may be right.
Our new review in Science (@science.org) shows that Earth’s changing rhythms could have major and underestimated consequences for life on Earth. 🌍🧵
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Our new review in Science (@science.org) shows that Earth’s changing rhythms could have major and underestimated consequences for life on Earth. 🌍🧵
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
This nails it!
Our built environment isn't ready for the changes we've made to our natural environment.
VIDEO: 🇹🇭 🇲🇾 Tens of thousands displaced by floods in Thailand and Malaysia
Tens of thousands of people in Thailand and neighbouring Malaysia have been displaced by widespread flooding, with streets submerged, homes inundated and at least 34 people dead, officials said
Tens of thousands of people in Thailand and neighbouring Malaysia have been displaced by widespread flooding, with streets submerged, homes inundated and at least 34 people dead, officials said
November 26, 2025 at 4:39 PM
This nails it!
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
Global Cold‐Water Coral Biodiversity Redistribution Under Projected Climate Change
🔗 buff.ly/FyhJb97
🔗 buff.ly/FyhJb97
November 19, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Global Cold‐Water Coral Biodiversity Redistribution Under Projected Climate Change
🔗 buff.ly/FyhJb97
🔗 buff.ly/FyhJb97
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
Climate variations over the last 2000 years provide valuable context and help answer questions about how unusual the recent changes are.
Now with added global sea level rise: climatelabbook.substack.com/p/climate-ch...
Graphics: ed-hawkins.github.io/climate-visu...
Now with added global sea level rise: climatelabbook.substack.com/p/climate-ch...
Graphics: ed-hawkins.github.io/climate-visu...
November 18, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Climate variations over the last 2000 years provide valuable context and help answer questions about how unusual the recent changes are.
Now with added global sea level rise: climatelabbook.substack.com/p/climate-ch...
Graphics: ed-hawkins.github.io/climate-visu...
Now with added global sea level rise: climatelabbook.substack.com/p/climate-ch...
Graphics: ed-hawkins.github.io/climate-visu...
I'm happy to share that I’ve been promoted to full professor! 🎉
So many people to thank. Suffice to say, I wouldn’t have reached this point without important mentors, students, colleagues, and family. I can’t wait to celebrate with them properly over a beverage of choice soon. 🍻🍷☕️
So many people to thank. Suffice to say, I wouldn’t have reached this point without important mentors, students, colleagues, and family. I can’t wait to celebrate with them properly over a beverage of choice soon. 🍻🍷☕️
November 23, 2025 at 8:12 AM
I'm happy to share that I’ve been promoted to full professor! 🎉
So many people to thank. Suffice to say, I wouldn’t have reached this point without important mentors, students, colleagues, and family. I can’t wait to celebrate with them properly over a beverage of choice soon. 🍻🍷☕️
So many people to thank. Suffice to say, I wouldn’t have reached this point without important mentors, students, colleagues, and family. I can’t wait to celebrate with them properly over a beverage of choice soon. 🍻🍷☕️
Most of society misses out on making real connections with #nature.
We’re lucky in NZ to have an amazing network of backcountry huts that are dirt cheap to stay in. One night here can shift perspective forever.
If we want people to care for nature, we need to help them fall in love with it first.
We’re lucky in NZ to have an amazing network of backcountry huts that are dirt cheap to stay in. One night here can shift perspective forever.
If we want people to care for nature, we need to help them fall in love with it first.
November 21, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Most of society misses out on making real connections with #nature.
We’re lucky in NZ to have an amazing network of backcountry huts that are dirt cheap to stay in. One night here can shift perspective forever.
If we want people to care for nature, we need to help them fall in love with it first.
We’re lucky in NZ to have an amazing network of backcountry huts that are dirt cheap to stay in. One night here can shift perspective forever.
If we want people to care for nature, we need to help them fall in love with it first.
You know what I want in a politician? Someone who thinks beyond the next 3-5 years. Someone who thinks beyond their generation. Let’s vote for these people.
November 19, 2025 at 6:03 AM
You know what I want in a politician? Someone who thinks beyond the next 3-5 years. Someone who thinks beyond their generation. Let’s vote for these people.
Diverse forests make complementary use of canopy space and produce more biomass
Diverse forests make complementary use of canopy space and produce more biomass
www.geo.uzh.ch
November 13, 2025 at 7:10 PM
Diverse forests make complementary use of canopy space and produce more biomass
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
New paper alert! We (well, Gabrielle Koerich) modelled distributions of 28 Antarctic moss species using Bayesian spatial models. Results? Moss diversity is shaped by proximity to seabird colonies and water availability, with clear differences between maritime and continental assemblages.
November 13, 2025 at 6:12 AM
New paper alert! We (well, Gabrielle Koerich) modelled distributions of 28 Antarctic moss species using Bayesian spatial models. Results? Moss diversity is shaped by proximity to seabird colonies and water availability, with clear differences between maritime and continental assemblages.
New paper alert! We (well, Gabrielle Koerich) modelled distributions of 28 Antarctic moss species using Bayesian spatial models. Results? Moss diversity is shaped by proximity to seabird colonies and water availability, with clear differences between maritime and continental assemblages.
November 13, 2025 at 6:12 AM
New paper alert! We (well, Gabrielle Koerich) modelled distributions of 28 Antarctic moss species using Bayesian spatial models. Results? Moss diversity is shaped by proximity to seabird colonies and water availability, with clear differences between maritime and continental assemblages.
For my Substack, every second week is a little round-up of ideas I’m exploring, articles I'm reading, and other stuff that caught my attention related to climate, biodiversity, and water. It’s part reading list, part reflection. I call this series 'Nexus Notes'.
Nexus Notes – Antarctic moss, human right to a safe climate, extinction of ecologists(?), and the importance of feedback
Nexus Notes #17
predirections.substack.com
November 12, 2025 at 8:57 PM
For my Substack, every second week is a little round-up of ideas I’m exploring, articles I'm reading, and other stuff that caught my attention related to climate, biodiversity, and water. It’s part reading list, part reflection. I call this series 'Nexus Notes'.
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
"I've found that the most rewarding aspects of an academic career often lie in the unmeasured — in meaningful collaborations, moments of discovery, and watching students and mentees flourish." Very true.
What would you share with an earlier version of yourself?
What I wish I knew: 33 thoughts for early career researchers
Thirty three reflections I wish someone had shared with me early in my research career.
predirections.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 12:59 AM
"I've found that the most rewarding aspects of an academic career often lie in the unmeasured — in meaningful collaborations, moments of discovery, and watching students and mentees flourish." Very true.
What would you share with an earlier version of yourself?
What I wish I knew: 33 thoughts for early career researchers
Thirty three reflections I wish someone had shared with me early in my research career.
predirections.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 12:41 AM
What would you share with an earlier version of yourself?
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
Real action requires looking forward, not back
The world is changing at pace – a pace that requires approaches that are anticipatory, not reactionary
Some thoughts on a recent call for a more anticipatory approach to the Global Biodiversity Framework.
The world is changing at pace – a pace that requires approaches that are anticipatory, not reactionary
Some thoughts on a recent call for a more anticipatory approach to the Global Biodiversity Framework.
Real action requires looking forward, not back
The world is changing at pace – a pace that requires approaches that are anticipatory, not reactionary
predirections.substack.com
November 7, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Real action requires looking forward, not back
The world is changing at pace – a pace that requires approaches that are anticipatory, not reactionary
Some thoughts on a recent call for a more anticipatory approach to the Global Biodiversity Framework.
The world is changing at pace – a pace that requires approaches that are anticipatory, not reactionary
Some thoughts on a recent call for a more anticipatory approach to the Global Biodiversity Framework.
Real action requires looking forward, not back
The world is changing at pace – a pace that requires approaches that are anticipatory, not reactionary
Some thoughts on a recent call for a more anticipatory approach to the Global Biodiversity Framework.
The world is changing at pace – a pace that requires approaches that are anticipatory, not reactionary
Some thoughts on a recent call for a more anticipatory approach to the Global Biodiversity Framework.
Real action requires looking forward, not back
The world is changing at pace – a pace that requires approaches that are anticipatory, not reactionary
predirections.substack.com
November 7, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Real action requires looking forward, not back
The world is changing at pace – a pace that requires approaches that are anticipatory, not reactionary
Some thoughts on a recent call for a more anticipatory approach to the Global Biodiversity Framework.
The world is changing at pace – a pace that requires approaches that are anticipatory, not reactionary
Some thoughts on a recent call for a more anticipatory approach to the Global Biodiversity Framework.
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
Delighted to announce a new paper, led by Mansi Mungee, which studies insect populations over the UK using weather radar and is covered by the Guardian: www.theguardian.com/environment/...
more below...
#entomology #radar #biodiversity #insect #research #conservation #data #tech #sustainability
more below...
#entomology #radar #biodiversity #insect #research #conservation #data #tech #sustainability
Night-flying insects over UK in decline, weather radar study reveals
Study of Met Office data one of first to show how nocturnal insects affected by factors such as light pollution
www.theguardian.com
October 31, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Delighted to announce a new paper, led by Mansi Mungee, which studies insect populations over the UK using weather radar and is covered by the Guardian: www.theguardian.com/environment/...
more below...
#entomology #radar #biodiversity #insect #research #conservation #data #tech #sustainability
more below...
#entomology #radar #biodiversity #insect #research #conservation #data #tech #sustainability
I couldn’t think of a better example of short-term thinking than this! 🤦♂️
www.1news.co.nz/2025/10/30/f...
www.1news.co.nz/2025/10/30/f...
Farmers agree to sale of Fonterra's consumer brands
In a statement, Fonterra said it received a "strong mandate", with 88.47% of votes in support of the sale.
www.1news.co.nz
October 30, 2025 at 6:45 PM
I couldn’t think of a better example of short-term thinking than this! 🤦♂️
www.1news.co.nz/2025/10/30/f...
www.1news.co.nz/2025/10/30/f...
If you’re not sure of your vaccination record with MMR, just go to the pharmacy and get a jab. There’s no harm in getting an extra dose. Measles is not worth the risk.
Measles outbreak: Auckland Grammer School students told to stay home
Measles outbreak: Auckland Grammer School students told to stay home
Auckland Grammar School students in Year 9 and Year 10 have been told to stay home after an exposure event.
www.rnz.co.nz
October 30, 2025 at 6:02 PM
If you’re not sure of your vaccination record with MMR, just go to the pharmacy and get a jab. There’s no harm in getting an extra dose. Measles is not worth the risk.
"Basic research is easily mocked because it can seem impractical, but, in fact, it is a major driver of economic growth. “The return on investment in basic research — the return to society — is very high, typically multiple dollars back per dollar invested,” says Holdren."
7 basic science discoveries that changed the world
Ozempic, MRI machines and flat screen televisions all emerged out of fundamental research decades earlier — the very types of study being slashed by the US government.
www.nature.com
October 30, 2025 at 5:22 PM
"Basic research is easily mocked because it can seem impractical, but, in fact, it is a major driver of economic growth. “The return on investment in basic research — the return to society — is very high, typically multiple dollars back per dollar invested,” says Holdren."
Ugh. No thanks. Auckland folks keep an eye out please! Please share.
Biosecurity alert: hornet queen nest found in New Zealand
Aucklanders warned after hornet queen discovered in Glenfield.
www.stuff.co.nz
October 23, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Ugh. No thanks. Auckland folks keep an eye out please! Please share.
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
On the second day of our annual hui, we started the day with a keynote from University of Otago Vice-Chancellor Grant Robertson on the research system in Aotearoa 🧪🧵
October 22, 2025 at 10:49 PM
On the second day of our annual hui, we started the day with a keynote from University of Otago Vice-Chancellor Grant Robertson on the research system in Aotearoa 🧪🧵
After four days off the grid in the NZ backcountry, I’m excited to be heading to Dunedin to talk complexity at the annual hui (meeting) for @tepunahamatatini.bsky.social, the NZ centre of research excellence in complex systems.
October 20, 2025 at 6:23 PM
After four days off the grid in the NZ backcountry, I’m excited to be heading to Dunedin to talk complexity at the annual hui (meeting) for @tepunahamatatini.bsky.social, the NZ centre of research excellence in complex systems.
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
One of the things that was special about the Marsden Fund is that the decision-making process was tweaked over the years rather than reinvented over and over again like other funds. That allowed for decades of learning that I hope will not be lost in this latest restructure.
"The trouble with the government’s idea for a simple, more efficient science fund is that it’s trying to be a Ferrari on tin can funding." - @cillaw.bsky.social via @smcnz.bsky.social → www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz/2025/10/14/b... 🧪
Big shakeup for NZ's research funding - Expert Reaction
The Government will consolidate decision-making for New Zealand's science research funding as part of its new science system strategy.
Research Funding New Zealand will be a new independent board that...
www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz
October 15, 2025 at 2:24 AM
One of the things that was special about the Marsden Fund is that the decision-making process was tweaked over the years rather than reinvented over and over again like other funds. That allowed for decades of learning that I hope will not be lost in this latest restructure.
You have to check this out. #Rivers of #food: How healthy rivers are central to feeding the world, from @wwf-water.bsky.social.
@jjopperman.bsky.social wonderfully presented this work recently at the International Society for Rivers Science conference in Davis, CA.
rivers-of-food.panda.org
@jjopperman.bsky.social wonderfully presented this work recently at the International Society for Rivers Science conference in Davis, CA.
rivers-of-food.panda.org
Rivers of Food
One third of the world's food production is dependent on rivers. But they are under increasing pressure, threatening global food security now and in the future.
rivers-of-food.panda.org
October 14, 2025 at 11:32 PM
You have to check this out. #Rivers of #food: How healthy rivers are central to feeding the world, from @wwf-water.bsky.social.
@jjopperman.bsky.social wonderfully presented this work recently at the International Society for Rivers Science conference in Davis, CA.
rivers-of-food.panda.org
@jjopperman.bsky.social wonderfully presented this work recently at the International Society for Rivers Science conference in Davis, CA.
rivers-of-food.panda.org
The seventh Planetary Boundary of nine has been crossed. Ocean acidification has joined climate change, change in biosphere integrity, land system change, freshwater change, modification of biogeochemical flows, and introduction of novel entities.
Nexus Notes – Planetary Boundaries special edition
Nexus Notes #15
predirections.substack.com
October 13, 2025 at 8:18 AM
The seventh Planetary Boundary of nine has been crossed. Ocean acidification has joined climate change, change in biosphere integrity, land system change, freshwater change, modification of biogeochemical flows, and introduction of novel entities.
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
This is very sad, but also not surprising. The science has warned for a long time, including in IPCC reports, that even modest levels of global warming will devastate virtually all coral reefs.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Planet’s first catastrophic climate tipping point reached, report says, with coral reefs facing ‘widespread dieback’
Unless global heating is reduced to 1.2C ‘as fast as possible’, warm water coral reefs will not remain ‘at any meaningful scale’, a report by 160 scientists from 23 countries warns
www.theguardian.com
October 13, 2025 at 1:17 AM
This is very sad, but also not surprising. The science has warned for a long time, including in IPCC reports, that even modest levels of global warming will devastate virtually all coral reefs.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
www.theguardian.com/environment/...