@irgetsreal.bsky.social
Professor of International Relations, Georgetown. Former DoD and Senate staff. Foreign policy, political science, case study methods, environment, snark.
OK, so let’s indulge in the inside the beltway parlor game du jour: speculating about wtf Susie Wiles is up to.
First let’s dispense with the obvious: she is a seasoned pro so there is zero chance she did not know she was on the record or did not know the end game.
First let’s dispense with the obvious: she is a seasoned pro so there is zero chance she did not know she was on the record or did not know the end game.
December 17, 2025 at 1:31 PM
OK, so let’s indulge in the inside the beltway parlor game du jour: speculating about wtf Susie Wiles is up to.
First let’s dispense with the obvious: she is a seasoned pro so there is zero chance she did not know she was on the record or did not know the end game.
First let’s dispense with the obvious: she is a seasoned pro so there is zero chance she did not know she was on the record or did not know the end game.
This resonates with @jeffreyding.Baku.social Lepgold Prize winning book Technology and the Rise of Great Powers. Ding argues that it is not the country that discovers a new tech but the one that engineers and scales it that wins.
Finished Dan Wang's terrific book on China's engineering, its strengths & weaknesses. He contrasted the lawyerly state in the U.S. that impedes construction of new infrastructure & laments that turn. Lawyers seem to be only ones thus far slowing Trump's authoritarian turn. Wonder Wang's views now?
December 16, 2025 at 12:42 PM
This resonates with @jeffreyding.Baku.social Lepgold Prize winning book Technology and the Rise of Great Powers. Ding argues that it is not the country that discovers a new tech but the one that engineers and scales it that wins.
Reposted
Reposted
December 10, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Reposted
When my mom had a medication interaction that seemed like a severe stroke, she took three cognitive tests, the last one in front of large numbers of doctors and experts, most of whom she did not know.
Fortunately they diagnosed it and she quickly recovered.
Fortunately they diagnosed it and she quickly recovered.
December 10, 2025 at 1:12 PM
When my mom had a medication interaction that seemed like a severe stroke, she took three cognitive tests, the last one in front of large numbers of doctors and experts, most of whom she did not know.
Fortunately they diagnosed it and she quickly recovered.
Fortunately they diagnosed it and she quickly recovered.
Trump’s $12 billion farm bailout is limited to producers with an adjusted gross income of $900,000 or less.
Thank God we are not bailing out millionaires.
Thank God we are not bailing out millionaires.
December 9, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Trump’s $12 billion farm bailout is limited to producers with an adjusted gross income of $900,000 or less.
Thank God we are not bailing out millionaires.
Thank God we are not bailing out millionaires.
Biggest “throwing under the bus while seemingly giving praise” speech since Mark Antony.
"the combat decisions he has made"
Hegseth is setting up Admiral Bradley to take the blame for killing the survivors--which is just the tip of an immense iceberg of illegal acts.
U.S. military officials beware: Following orders is not a defense to murder or war crimes.
Hegseth is setting up Admiral Bradley to take the blame for killing the survivors--which is just the tip of an immense iceberg of illegal acts.
U.S. military officials beware: Following orders is not a defense to murder or war crimes.
December 2, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Biggest “throwing under the bus while seemingly giving praise” speech since Mark Antony.
Reposted
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
November 25, 2025 at 9:26 AM
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
Reposted
So, I went through the U.S. plan on Ukraine. Here I offer a point-by-point analysis: profradchenko.substack.com/p/the-us-pla....
The U.S. plan: an analysis
I work through the 28 points explaining the underlying issues
profradchenko.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 2:33 PM
So, I went through the U.S. plan on Ukraine. Here I offer a point-by-point analysis: profradchenko.substack.com/p/the-us-pla....
Reposted
1/How to make sense of Saudi-US expose -- golf course licenses and real estate deals for a defense agreement and nuke tech? Enter the world of neo-royalism (www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mxthh...)
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/w...
Trump Organization Is Said to Be in Talks on a Saudi Government Real Estate Deal
www.nytimes.com
November 15, 2025 at 2:19 PM
1/How to make sense of Saudi-US expose -- golf course licenses and real estate deals for a defense agreement and nuke tech? Enter the world of neo-royalism (www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mxthh...)
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/w...
Trump having the Justice Department investigate everyone but him on Epstein’s crimes is the ultimate “whoever smelt it dealt it”
November 15, 2025 at 9:52 AM
Trump having the Justice Department investigate everyone but him on Epstein’s crimes is the ultimate “whoever smelt it dealt it”
Please share with PhD students: apply until Dec.1 for June 2026 IQMR. Those accepted will get lodging and meals stipend but have to pay own expenses to get to Syracuse NY. Those from Africa, Lat. America. And MENA get air fare paid
Application and details here:
docs.google.com/document/u/1...
Application and details here:
docs.google.com/document/u/1...
IQMR_Open Pool Call_2026
docs.google.com
November 12, 2025 at 9:47 PM
Please share with PhD students: apply until Dec.1 for June 2026 IQMR. Those accepted will get lodging and meals stipend but have to pay own expenses to get to Syracuse NY. Those from Africa, Lat. America. And MENA get air fare paid
Application and details here:
docs.google.com/document/u/1...
Application and details here:
docs.google.com/document/u/1...
The internet thinks rickrolling began in 2007.
Actually, the OG rickroll was when Delta Force rickrolled Noriega out of the Holy See in Panama city in 1989.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/11/u...
Actually, the OG rickroll was when Delta Force rickrolled Noriega out of the Holy See in Panama city in 1989.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/11/u...
How the Heavy-Metal Fall of a Dictator Shapes Trump’s Venezuela Policy
www.nytimes.com
November 11, 2025 at 5:27 PM
The internet thinks rickrolling began in 2007.
Actually, the OG rickroll was when Delta Force rickrolled Noriega out of the Holy See in Panama city in 1989.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/11/u...
Actually, the OG rickroll was when Delta Force rickrolled Noriega out of the Holy See in Panama city in 1989.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/11/u...
Ouch! Feeling kind of old as one of that “earlier generation” that engaged in “shopworn” debates :)
Great review of important recent work on qualitative methods! I would add Fairfield and Charman on formal Bayesian process tracing as one of the key recent contributions.
Great review of important recent work on qualitative methods! I would add Fairfield and Charman on formal Bayesian process tracing as one of the key recent contributions.
Check out my review of some exciting new books in qualitative methods!
November 8, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Ouch! Feeling kind of old as one of that “earlier generation” that engaged in “shopworn” debates :)
Great review of important recent work on qualitative methods! I would add Fairfield and Charman on formal Bayesian process tracing as one of the key recent contributions.
Great review of important recent work on qualitative methods! I would add Fairfield and Charman on formal Bayesian process tracing as one of the key recent contributions.
Will be very funny if Republican gerrymandering spreads out their votes and they lose even more seats in a big wave election in the midterms like the one we saw this week.
November 7, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Will be very funny if Republican gerrymandering spreads out their votes and they lose even more seats in a big wave election in the midterms like the one we saw this week.
Reposted
Paul Musgrave with a political science-centric obituary for Dick Cheney. musgrave.substack.com/p/dick-chene...
Dick Cheney, ABD
Remembering the greatest alt-ac of them all
musgrave.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 5:02 PM
Paul Musgrave with a political science-centric obituary for Dick Cheney. musgrave.substack.com/p/dick-chene...
It turns out that knocking down a wing of the WH to build yourself a gilded ballroom when people are struggling to pay for food and health care is not a winning electoral strategy.
November 5, 2025 at 11:57 AM
It turns out that knocking down a wing of the WH to build yourself a gilded ballroom when people are struggling to pay for food and health care is not a winning electoral strategy.
The only way to break Trump’s hold over spineless Republicans in Congress is to make them fear the general electorate more than they fear getting primaried by Trump.
Yesterday was a big step, and the midterms loom. Expect Rs in swing districts to rediscover health care costs and end the shutdown.
Yesterday was a big step, and the midterms loom. Expect Rs in swing districts to rediscover health care costs and end the shutdown.
November 5, 2025 at 10:31 AM
The only way to break Trump’s hold over spineless Republicans in Congress is to make them fear the general electorate more than they fear getting primaried by Trump.
Yesterday was a big step, and the midterms loom. Expect Rs in swing districts to rediscover health care costs and end the shutdown.
Yesterday was a big step, and the midterms loom. Expect Rs in swing districts to rediscover health care costs and end the shutdown.
Reposted
The factional grifters will hate this, but the Mamdani-Spanberger-Sherrill axis actually suggests the outlines of a broad, emerging Dem coalition organized around both anti-Trump *and* affordability politics, not a party bitterly divided against itself.
These big wins will embolden Dems to take on Trump's lawbreaking and show there's a price for GOP enabling of him. Folks hate to hear this, but normal patterns are asserting themselves: Liberalism isn't dead, Rs are likely to lose in 2026, and Trump is really unpopular, not a magical exception.
November 5, 2025 at 2:48 AM
The factional grifters will hate this, but the Mamdani-Spanberger-Sherrill axis actually suggests the outlines of a broad, emerging Dem coalition organized around both anti-Trump *and* affordability politics, not a party bitterly divided against itself.
NYT map on vote shift in BA compared to 2024. Not a single red arrow in even the most rural areas.
This is not just about unemployed and furloughed government workers in Northern VA.
This is not just about unemployed and furloughed government workers in Northern VA.
November 5, 2025 at 10:02 AM
NYT map on vote shift in BA compared to 2024. Not a single red arrow in even the most rural areas.
This is not just about unemployed and furloughed government workers in Northern VA.
This is not just about unemployed and furloughed government workers in Northern VA.
Is there anywhere, at any level, that Trump did well yesterday, or better than expected?
If so, I have not seen it yet, from governorships right down to mayors races and state legislatures.
If so, I have not seen it yet, from governorships right down to mayors races and state legislatures.
November 5, 2025 at 9:57 AM
Is there anywhere, at any level, that Trump did well yesterday, or better than expected?
If so, I have not seen it yet, from governorships right down to mayors races and state legislatures.
If so, I have not seen it yet, from governorships right down to mayors races and state legislatures.
The thing about competitive authoritarianism is that the incumbents can lose even after tilting the playing field.
Yesterday Trump lost, badly. I expect in 2026 he will lose badly again. We can do this.
Yesterday Trump lost, badly. I expect in 2026 he will lose badly again. We can do this.
November 5, 2025 at 9:54 AM
The thing about competitive authoritarianism is that the incumbents can lose even after tilting the playing field.
Yesterday Trump lost, badly. I expect in 2026 he will lose badly again. We can do this.
Yesterday Trump lost, badly. I expect in 2026 he will lose badly again. We can do this.
Biggest election surprise: 13 point win by Sherill (w 95% counted).
Way ahead of polls and almost as big as Spanberger.
Great sign for the midterms, terrible day for Trump. Expect diversions and online tantrums.
Way ahead of polls and almost as big as Spanberger.
Great sign for the midterms, terrible day for Trump. Expect diversions and online tantrums.
November 5, 2025 at 9:40 AM
Biggest election surprise: 13 point win by Sherill (w 95% counted).
Way ahead of polls and almost as big as Spanberger.
Great sign for the midterms, terrible day for Trump. Expect diversions and online tantrums.
Way ahead of polls and almost as big as Spanberger.
Great sign for the midterms, terrible day for Trump. Expect diversions and online tantrums.
NYT today.
It turns out that when you put tariffs on everyone, they just trade more with each other.
Trump made US the loner in the lunchroom of world trade.
It turns out that when you put tariffs on everyone, they just trade more with each other.
Trump made US the loner in the lunchroom of world trade.
November 4, 2025 at 9:42 AM
NYT today.
It turns out that when you put tariffs on everyone, they just trade more with each other.
Trump made US the loner in the lunchroom of world trade.
It turns out that when you put tariffs on everyone, they just trade more with each other.
Trump made US the loner in the lunchroom of world trade.