Harold Trinkunas
htrinkunas.bsky.social
Harold Trinkunas
@htrinkunas.bsky.social

Deputy Director at Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. Usual disclaimers apply.

https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/people/harold-trinkunas

Political science 66%
Sociology 21%
🎧 What if nuclear war didn’t look like chaos, but competence?
CISAC Co-Director Scott Sagan discusses A House of Dynamite and the real risks of nuclear decision-making on the Bang Bang Podcast. ⤵️
www.bangbangpod.com/p/a-house-of...
A House of Dynamite (2025) w/ Scott Sagan | Ep. 54
Van and Lyle are joined by nuclear weapons and disarmament expert Scott Sagan to discuss A House of Dynamite, the 2025 political thriller that imagines nuclear catastrophe not as spectacle or obvious ...
www.bangbangpod.com
In their latest for @lawfaremedia.org, CISAC’s Andy Grotto & Jim Dempsey call on the Pentagon to fix cyber vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure supporting U.S. military bases.
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-...
The Pentagon’s Operational Technology Problem
The readiness of America’s warfighters depends on the cybersecurity of operational technology that is largely unregulated.
www.lawfaremedia.org
My last end-of-the-year letter as @FSIStanford director! After 11 years in the job, I am stepping down at the end of the month.
fsi.stanford.edu/content/annu...
Annual Report 2025
fsi.stanford.edu
Hollywood meets nuclear strategy, and it’s messier than you think. CISAC Co-director Scott Sagan and Research Assistant Shreya Lad unpack what A House of Dynamite gets right about nuclear risk, and where it goes dangerously wrong.
thebulletin.org/2025/12/a-ho...
A house of mistakes: what Kathryn Bigelow’s 'A House of Dynamite' gets radically right—and dangerously wrong—about nuclear war
A House of Dynamite gets so many details wrong that the lessons viewers take from the film will likely be counterproductive, even dangerous. If it is a wake-up call, the audience will wake up on the w...
thebulletin.org
Have Chinese AI models pulled ahead of their global counterparts? In a new issue brief from @stanfordhai.bsky.social, CISAC research scholar @gwbstr.com and colleagues analyze China’s open-weight model ecosystem and its global policy implications.
hai.stanford.edu/policy/beyon...
Beyond DeepSeek: China's Diverse Open-Weight AI Ecosystem and Its Policy Implications | Stanford HAI
Almost one year after the “DeepSeek moment,” this brief analyzes China’s diverse open-model ecosystem and examines the policy implications of their widespread global diffusion.
hai.stanford.edu
Please join us in congratulating @jimgoldgeier.bsky.social for being elected President of the International Studies Association (ISA) for the 2027–2028 term!
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/news/jim-gol...
Jim Goldgeier elected President of the International Studies Association
Goldgeier will serve as ISA President for the 2027–2028 term
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu
As global competition intensifies, CFIUS faces rising pressure to protect U.S. innovation. A new report by CISAC’s Andrew Grotto and colleagues outlines steps the administration can take now to strengthen America’s investment-screening system.
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/gtg/publicat...
CFIUS and the “America First” Investment Policy: Nine Recommendations for
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu
Aging jets aren’t the real problem. Bureaucracy is.
In a new article for @warontherocks.bsky.social, Air Force National Defense Fellow Austin Gruber breaks down the hidden chokepoint dragging U.S. Air Force readiness into the red.
warontherocks.com/2025/12/grou...
Grounded by Red Ink: The Hidden Chokepoint in U.S. Air Force Readiness
At sunrise in the Pacific, a fighter jet rolled to the end of the flight line as crew chiefs swarmed in final checks. Everything pointed to “ready.” Then
warontherocks.com
I'm speaking at Stanford on 8 Dec on the penultimate stop of 2025's Autocratics vs. Democrats book tour. More details here: fsi.stanford.edu/events/book-...
Book Talk with Michael McFaul | Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia
Stanford University
fsi.stanford.edu
Next week: "Hope and Despair: The Emotional Response to the War in Ukraine" with Gabrielius Landsbergis and Michael McFaul

RSVP here ⤵️
events.stanford.edu/event/hope-a...
Hope and Despair: The Emotional Response to the War in Ukraine
events.stanford.edu
Next week: "Anonymous Online Survey Detection of Political Violence, Social Unrest and Human Rights Violations" with Andrew Shaver

RSVP here ⤵️
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/events/anony...
Anonymous Online Survey Detection of Political Violence, Social Unrest and
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu
Next week: "Book Talk with Michael McFaul | Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder"

RSVP here ⤵️
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/events/book-...
Book Talk with Michael McFaul | Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu
Happening tomorrow! Tune in to the International Panel on Children in War, bringing together global experts to discuss children in conflict and the future of humanitarian protection. For more information and where to RSVP, click the link below ⤵️

drruthgibson.substack.com/p/internatio...
International Panel on Children in War - December 2, 2025
Please circulate the information on this international panel, highlighting researchers and clinicians speaking about Children in War, hosted online. Registration details below.
drruthgibson.substack.com
The deadline to apply for the CISAC fellowship program is almost here! Make sure to have your applications in by December 3rd to be considered for the 2026-2027 academic year.
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/cisac-fellow...
CISAC Fellowships
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu
CISAC is hiring! We are seeking an experienced Finance and Research Administration Manager to oversee the Center’s financial and grants portfolio. This role manages all aspects of CISAC’s financial operations and research administration activities⤵️

careersearch.stanford.edu/jobs/finance...
Finance and Research Administration Manager in Dean of Research, Stanford, California, United States
CISAC is seeking an experienced Finance and Research Administration Manager to oversee the Center’s financial and grants portfolio. Reporting to the.....
careersearch.stanford.edu
Please join us in congratulating David Relman for being awarded the 2025 Barry Prize for Distinguished Intellectual Achievement! The award is the American Academy of Sciences and Letters premier recognition of excellence in scholarship.
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/news/david-r...
David Relman Awarded the 2025 Barry Prize for Distinguished Intellectual
The Barry Prize for Distinguished Intellectual Achievement is the American Academy of Sciences and Letters premier recognition of excellence in scholarship
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu
CISAC is hiring! We’re seeking a Senior Research Scholar & William J. Perry Lecturer with policy experience and expertise in international, nuclear, deterrence, digital, bio, or environmental security.

Click below to apply and learn more ⤵️
careersearch.stanford.edu/jobs/senior-...
Senior Research Scholar & William J. Perry Lecturer in Dean of Research, Stanford, California, United States
(Full-time, 3-year fixed term, renewable) Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), part of the Freeman Spogli....
careersearch.stanford.edu
How do shifting global power dynamics shape racial hierarchies in world politics? In a new Q&A, CISAC fellow Kevin Bustamante breaks down how structural racism emerges, and why it matters for today’s policy debates.
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/news/fellows...
Fellowship Spotlight: Kevin Bustamante
CISAC Fellow, Kevin Bustamante, examines how race, hierarchy, and geopolitics intersect in a changing world
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu
Next week: "How America Failed to Disarm North Korea: The Inside Story" with Joel Wit

RSVP here ⤵️
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/events/how-a...
How America Failed to Disarm North Korea: The Inside Story | Joel Wit
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu
On the 80th anniversary of the Trinity test, the Nobel Laureate Assembly for the Prevention of Nuclear War, including CISAC’s Scott Sagan, Herb Lin, Sig Hecker & Lynn Eden, called on world leaders & policymakers to recommit to reducing the nuclear threat.
thebulletin.org/2025/07/the-...
The Nobel Laureate Assembly Declaration for the Prevention of Nuclear War
Tremendous progress has been made in reducing global nuclear stockpiles and nuclear risks, but we are now heading in the wrong direction. Poised at the beginning of a new, complex, and dangerous nucle...
thebulletin.org
New research from CISAC's Patrick Hulme shows presidents often act alone in military interventions not b/c Congress is weak, but b/c lawmakers choose to avoid blame while quietly supporting action. The “imperial presidency” story misses the real dynamic.
Read more⤵️
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
War and Responsibility | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
War and Responsibility
www.cambridge.org
This is a very cool opportunity for writers of fiction. So happy Kim Stanley Robinson agreed to help out. thebulletin.org/write-before...
Write Before Midnight - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Write Before Midnight A Bulletin short fiction contest Announcing the Bulletin‘s new short fiction contest… Over the decades, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has published the smartest minds in ...
thebulletin.org
Please join us in welcoming back Dr. Sulgiye Park to CISAC!
Joining as a Research Scholar, Park will contribute to research, teaching, and mentorship.
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/news/cisac-w...
CISAC Welcomes Dr. Sulgiye Park
Dr. Sulgiye Park has joined the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) as a Research Scholar, where she will contribute to research, teaching, and mentorship
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu
Please join us in welcoming our 2025-2026 fellows! These scholars will spend the academic year generating new knowledge across a range of topics that can help all of us build a safer world.
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/news/cisac-n...
CISAC Names 2025-2026 Fellows
The Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) is pleased to welcome the fellows who will be joining us for the 2025-26 academic year. These scholars will spend the academic year genera...
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu
I’m thrilled to announce that, after ten years of research, my book on the birth of democracy in South America is finally out!
I'm especially excited to be publishing it #openaccess, which means you can download a PDF for free at: www.cambridge.org/core/books/b...
Anne Neuberger delivered the 2025 Payne Distinguished Lecture, outlining how the United States must rethink cyber deterrence to defend critical infrastructure.

Read more on key takeaways below⤵️
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/news/event-r...
Event Recap: Payne Distinguished Lecture | Geopolitics and Deterrence in
Anne Neuberger delivered the 2025 Payne Distinguished Lecture, outlining how the United States must rethink cyber deterrence to defend critical infrastructure
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu
Congratulations to @htrinkunas.bsky.social of @stanfordcisac.bsky.social on receiving the Alfred Stepan Lifetime Achievement Award from the Latin American Studies Association for his outstanding academic career and contributions to security and defense studies.
Dr. Harold Trinkunas Awarded the Alfred Stepan Lifetime Achievement Award
Trinkunas is awarded for his outstanding academic career and contributions to security and defense studies, such as civil-military relations, transnational organized crime, terrorism, and local orders...
ow.ly

I like this approach better than going back to blue book final exams.
Rose Gottemoeller is announced as the recipient of the 2025 Thérèse Delpech Memorial Award… and the crowd at #nukecon goes wild.

Alex Bell with the announcement.
This is the fundamental problem with Silicon Valley as well: the modal belief is that anything to do with politics or the state is either an engineering problem or a conspiracy.

And then these guys are let loose on our democracy.