Author | Lightnews

Richard Heatwave Berler

@heatwavekgns.bsky.social

380 followers 510 following 5K posts

I love weather! CBS Duluth, MN May 23, 1976-80, KGNS Laredo, TX Feb 14, 1980-now. NCEI/NWS coop site 415060 June 10, 1985 to December 31, 2023. NWS Jefferson Award. AMS CBM#18

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Richard Heatwave Berler @heatwavekgns.bsky.social · 3h

This!

Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 3h

Melissa is a great example of the value of in-situ observations - without recon flights, we largely rely on satellite estimates to assess a storm's current intensity. And current satellite estimates for Melissa are much more intense than what recon has recorded so far.

Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · 4h

There's the tie for the record.

Richard Heatwave Berler @heatwavekgns.bsky.social · 3h

I got to watch Koufax pitch at Shea in 1966, Drysdale as well as a 12 year old growing up in Connecticut!

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Richard Heatwave Berler @heatwavekgns.bsky.social · 4h

Official advisory showing winds estimated to be gusting to ~215 mph.

Richard Heatwave Berler @heatwavekgns.bsky.social · 4h

Monday 10:17 pm: The key messages from NHC (2nd image) re impact of this storm are sobering, to say the least.

Richard Heatwave Berler @heatwavekgns.bsky.social · 5h

@bxmatilla.bsky.social had the comparison…

Richard Heatwave Berler @heatwavekgns.bsky.social · 5h

Thanks for this, was wondering about Patricia, Wilma, Gilbert on these methodologies. Amazingly stead state last 24 hours re warm core definition, estimated surface pressure and wind.

Richard Heatwave Berler @heatwavekgns.bsky.social · 5h

Thanks for this, was wondering about Patricia, Wilma, Gilbert on these methodologies. Amazingly stead state last 24 hours re warm core definition, estimated surface pressure and wind.

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Richard Heatwave Berler @heatwavekgns.bsky.social · 5h

Would have made a 4 pm map, but had $165 of groceries stolen from the hatchback of my car at HEB in ~40 seconds while I returned cart to the cart corral. Did not discover until I got home. Here is my 8 pm analysis. Similar heat Tuesday, much cooler Wednesday, 50’s dawn, 70’s pm.

Richard Heatwave Berler @heatwavekgns.bsky.social · 13h

Monday 1:27 pm: Melissa now with sustained 175 mph wind. Rather compact, hurricane force wind (75 mph) extend just 30 miles out from the center. The impact discussion that I am including only speaks to wind, not the exceptional rainfall and storm surge with this storm.

Richard Heatwave Berler @heatwavekgns.bsky.social · 13h

I imagine that dropsondes have helped with estimating surface winds over the one box fits all assumptions based upon winds at flight level, and Dvorak and automated Dvorak estimates. Automated Dvorak has been much higher than what reconnaissance has observed with Melissa.

Reposted by Richard Heatwave Berler

Jeremy DeHart @jeremydehartwx.bsky.social · 15h

From a crewmember on yesterday's Teal 74 mission into now-Category 5 Hurricane #Melissa. As clear of an eye as you will see in the Atlantic basin.

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Reposted by Richard Heatwave Berler

John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 16h

"The NOAA aircraft left the storm early after
experiencing severe turbulence in the southwestern eyewall."

These men and women are not being paid due to the US government shutdown. Not to mention that according to AOML's director emeritus Robert Atlas, they are down 40-50% staff. #Melissa

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Richard Heatwave Berler @heatwavekgns.bsky.social · 17h

Monday 9:10 am: Magnitude of pronounced warm core and core of high winds in eyewall are remarkable. 205 mph gust at 700 mb flight level was observed by reconnaissance aircraft.

Richard Heatwave Berler @heatwavekgns.bsky.social · 18h

Monday 8:50 am: A hot airmass will be our weather control through Tuesday afternoon, marginally dry air, high 90’s each day. Much cooler air arrives from Rockies Tuesday night, not enough moisture available for rain.

Reposted by Richard Heatwave Berler

cira-csu.bsky.social @cira-csu.bsky.social · 18h

Lightning flashes within the powerful eye wall of Hurricane Melissa.

Incredible imagery this morning of Melissa, a Category 5 storm, south of Jamaica.

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Richard Heatwave Berler @heatwavekgns.bsky.social · 18h

Monday 8:12 am: Hurricane Melissa is still intensifying. One of the most compact and pronounced warm cores one observes, 85F at 750 mb flight level in eye, ~59F just miles outside of 5 mile diameter eye.

Richard Heatwave Berler @heatwavekgns.bsky.social · 1d

Melissa continues to over perform on the automated Dvorak:

Richard Heatwave Berler @heatwavekgns.bsky.social · 1d

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Richard Heatwave Berler @heatwavekgns.bsky.social · 1d

Do you know when automated Dvorak data was first available? Wonder how Patricia, Wilma measured up. Can’t get my head around Wilma’s 2 mile diameter eye and Patricia’s 32C in the eye at 700 mb!

Richard Heatwave Berler @heatwavekgns.bsky.social · 1d

Phew! The flight continues!

Richard Heatwave Berler @heatwavekgns.bsky.social · 1d

Hope the aircraft is ok. Sure is a shame to miss this sampling.

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Richard Heatwave Berler @heatwavekgns.bsky.social · 1d

Patricia?

Richard Heatwave Berler @heatwavekgns.bsky.social · 1d

I was wondering if Wilma or Gilbert may have accomplished that (do not know when automated estimates began).

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Richard Heatwave Berler @heatwavekgns.bsky.social · 1d