Gavin Bena 🗳
@gavinbena.bsky.social
your friendly local elections nerd & missouri young democrats representative for MO-02
Linktree: https://linktr.ee/gavinbena
Linktree: https://linktr.ee/gavinbena
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Gavin Bena 🗳
@gavinbena.bsky.social
· Sep 2
Have my maps, graphics, and data helped you understand our political world? Please consider supporting my work at patreon.com/GavinBena by becoming a member!
Your help allows me to keep my work public rather than hiding democracy behind a paywall, and gives our local candidates-
Your help allows me to keep my work public rather than hiding democracy behind a paywall, and gives our local candidates-
great to be in Jefferson City today for the Missouri Democratic Party’s quarterly State Committee meeting
December 6, 2025 at 6:18 PM
great to be in Jefferson City today for the Missouri Democratic Party’s quarterly State Committee meeting
The missile knows where it is at all times. It knows this because it knows where it isn't, by subtracting where it is, from where it isn't, or where it isn't, from where it is, whichever is greater, it obtains a difference, or deviation. The guidance sub-system uses deviations to
December 4, 2025 at 6:12 AM
The missile knows where it is at all times. It knows this because it knows where it isn't, by subtracting where it is, from where it isn't, or where it isn't, from where it is, whichever is greater, it obtains a difference, or deviation. The guidance sub-system uses deviations to
I would say I’m thoroughly enjoying the irony of someone whining about me ‘not doing real organizing’ turning around and taking credit for my work, but the honest truth is that I’m actually just not.
I’m rather quite peeved, honestly.
I’m rather quite peeved, honestly.
December 4, 2025 at 3:43 AM
I would say I’m thoroughly enjoying the irony of someone whining about me ‘not doing real organizing’ turning around and taking credit for my work, but the honest truth is that I’m actually just not.
I’m rather quite peeved, honestly.
I’m rather quite peeved, honestly.
going to the next presidential debate holding signs saying “THE RINGWORLD IS UNSTABLE” just to see what happens
December 3, 2025 at 2:13 PM
going to the next presidential debate holding signs saying “THE RINGWORLD IS UNSTABLE” just to see what happens
Aftyn Behn lost in Tennessee, but narrowed the gap by 13.2%; losing by just 9% in a Trump +22% district.
If Missouri Democrats could come even close to pulling off the same, the results would be staggering: Taking down Ann Wagner, flipping 3 seats in the Senate and a whopping 17 in the House.
If Missouri Democrats could come even close to pulling off the same, the results would be staggering: Taking down Ann Wagner, flipping 3 seats in the Senate and a whopping 17 in the House.
December 3, 2025 at 4:57 AM
Aftyn Behn lost in Tennessee, but narrowed the gap by 13.2%; losing by just 9% in a Trump +22% district.
If Missouri Democrats could come even close to pulling off the same, the results would be staggering: Taking down Ann Wagner, flipping 3 seats in the Senate and a whopping 17 in the House.
If Missouri Democrats could come even close to pulling off the same, the results would be staggering: Taking down Ann Wagner, flipping 3 seats in the Senate and a whopping 17 in the House.
my december resolution is to just start smashing shit against the wall until people get out of my way and I can do the work they’ve been failing to even comprehend :)
December 2, 2025 at 6:40 AM
my december resolution is to just start smashing shit against the wall until people get out of my way and I can do the work they’ve been failing to even comprehend :)
don’t mind me just being yanked around by a very excited husky’s first snow since he was a puppy :)
November 29, 2025 at 12:54 PM
don’t mind me just being yanked around by a very excited husky’s first snow since he was a puppy :)
Democrats on Labor: “after returning from handing out water at the picket line today, we’re very excited to announce a new multibillion investment that will create thousands of new jobs across a variety of sectors-”
Republicans on Labor:
Republicans on Labor:
November 29, 2025 at 6:22 AM
Democrats on Labor: “after returning from handing out water at the picket line today, we’re very excited to announce a new multibillion investment that will create thousands of new jobs across a variety of sectors-”
Republicans on Labor:
Republicans on Labor:
shoutout to all my fellow introverts currently taking a break from thanksgiving to recharge and scroll on their phone
November 27, 2025 at 11:11 PM
shoutout to all my fellow introverts currently taking a break from thanksgiving to recharge and scroll on their phone
currently eating white rice with rosemary, salt and cracked black pepper in bed while watching bunny videos instead of answering texts on my phone because it’s Thanksgiving Eve and I feel like it
November 27, 2025 at 4:10 AM
currently eating white rice with rosemary, salt and cracked black pepper in bed while watching bunny videos instead of answering texts on my phone because it’s Thanksgiving Eve and I feel like it
call me ibuprofen and wine the way I am what I eat
November 26, 2025 at 5:45 AM
call me ibuprofen and wine the way I am what I eat
Petition campaigns need signatures from rural communities to make it on the statewide ballot - it takes a powerful grassroots effort from every county in the state to deliver real change for Missouri.
Find their links to get involved below:
Find their links to get involved below:
November 21, 2025 at 10:35 PM
Petition campaigns need signatures from rural communities to make it on the statewide ballot - it takes a powerful grassroots effort from every county in the state to deliver real change for Missouri.
Find their links to get involved below:
Find their links to get involved below:
Clay Higgins was the lone vote against releasing the Epstein files.
If you’ve forgotten who he is, here’s a helpful reminder:
If you’ve forgotten who he is, here’s a helpful reminder:
November 18, 2025 at 10:08 PM
Clay Higgins was the lone vote against releasing the Epstein files.
If you’ve forgotten who he is, here’s a helpful reminder:
If you’ve forgotten who he is, here’s a helpful reminder:
the Illinois House was once elected by cumulative voting, with each of the 59 senatorial districts electing 3 representatives for a total of 177
in 1980, the Cutback Amendment abolished cumulative voting and cut the House to just 118 elected from single-member districts
i think this was a mistake
in 1980, the Cutback Amendment abolished cumulative voting and cut the House to just 118 elected from single-member districts
i think this was a mistake
November 18, 2025 at 9:59 PM
the Illinois House was once elected by cumulative voting, with each of the 59 senatorial districts electing 3 representatives for a total of 177
in 1980, the Cutback Amendment abolished cumulative voting and cut the House to just 118 elected from single-member districts
i think this was a mistake
in 1980, the Cutback Amendment abolished cumulative voting and cut the House to just 118 elected from single-member districts
i think this was a mistake
The 2026 US House election results:
- Democrats net 10 seats for a majority of 225
- Republicans only gain from new gerrymanders
- 8 incumbent Democrats lose renomination to newcomers, the most such losses since 1992
What's your reaction?
- Democrats net 10 seats for a majority of 225
- Republicans only gain from new gerrymanders
- 8 incumbent Democrats lose renomination to newcomers, the most such losses since 1992
What's your reaction?
November 16, 2025 at 10:43 PM
The 2026 US House election results:
- Democrats net 10 seats for a majority of 225
- Republicans only gain from new gerrymanders
- 8 incumbent Democrats lose renomination to newcomers, the most such losses since 1992
What's your reaction?
- Democrats net 10 seats for a majority of 225
- Republicans only gain from new gerrymanders
- 8 incumbent Democrats lose renomination to newcomers, the most such losses since 1992
What's your reaction?
Zohran Mamdani versus Everyone Else
Not meant to be a realistic reflection of hypothetical results if Sliwa dropped out, but neat to look at.
Worth noting that while Mamdani receives 'only' 50.4% of the vote, he wins a majority in 29 districts, 56.9% of NYC's 51.
Not meant to be a realistic reflection of hypothetical results if Sliwa dropped out, but neat to look at.
Worth noting that while Mamdani receives 'only' 50.4% of the vote, he wins a majority in 29 districts, 56.9% of NYC's 51.
November 11, 2025 at 12:14 AM
Zohran Mamdani versus Everyone Else
Not meant to be a realistic reflection of hypothetical results if Sliwa dropped out, but neat to look at.
Worth noting that while Mamdani receives 'only' 50.4% of the vote, he wins a majority in 29 districts, 56.9% of NYC's 51.
Not meant to be a realistic reflection of hypothetical results if Sliwa dropped out, but neat to look at.
Worth noting that while Mamdani receives 'only' 50.4% of the vote, he wins a majority in 29 districts, 56.9% of NYC's 51.
2025 New York City Mayoral election results by city council district:
November 9, 2025 at 9:59 PM
2025 New York City Mayoral election results by city council district:
Prediction versus Results:
Deeply whiffed on which way undecided Cuomo/Sliwa undecideds would break, not taking Trump's endorsement into account, but was mostly correct on Mamdani - underestimating him a bit among nonwhite voters, overestimating him a bit among white voters.
Deeply whiffed on which way undecided Cuomo/Sliwa undecideds would break, not taking Trump's endorsement into account, but was mostly correct on Mamdani - underestimating him a bit among nonwhite voters, overestimating him a bit among white voters.
November 9, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Prediction versus Results:
Deeply whiffed on which way undecided Cuomo/Sliwa undecideds would break, not taking Trump's endorsement into account, but was mostly correct on Mamdani - underestimating him a bit among nonwhite voters, overestimating him a bit among white voters.
Deeply whiffed on which way undecided Cuomo/Sliwa undecideds would break, not taking Trump's endorsement into account, but was mostly correct on Mamdani - underestimating him a bit among nonwhite voters, overestimating him a bit among white voters.
on one hand, Mamdani only won 50.4% of the vote in a city where Harris won 68.1%, thus a landslide loss in any swing seat
on the other, he had to fight tooth and nail against the establishment of our own party, billionaire donors and corporate interests
so who’s to say, really
on the other, he had to fight tooth and nail against the establishment of our own party, billionaire donors and corporate interests
so who’s to say, really
November 5, 2025 at 12:56 PM
on one hand, Mamdani only won 50.4% of the vote in a city where Harris won 68.1%, thus a landslide loss in any swing seat
on the other, he had to fight tooth and nail against the establishment of our own party, billionaire donors and corporate interests
so who’s to say, really
on the other, he had to fight tooth and nail against the establishment of our own party, billionaire donors and corporate interests
so who’s to say, really
Voters in Mehlville School District, in South St. Louis County, Missouri, overwhelmingly voted to approve 2024’s existing $0.0326/$100 tax and a further $0.0240/$100 for 2025 to offset an expected decrease in debt service levies.
November 5, 2025 at 7:06 AM
Voters in Mehlville School District, in South St. Louis County, Missouri, overwhelmingly voted to approve 2024’s existing $0.0326/$100 tax and a further $0.0240/$100 for 2025 to offset an expected decrease in debt service levies.
Yikes.
Guessed well on Mamdani’s % and the coalitions, but my thought process that many Republicans would still hate Cuomo enough to stick with Silwa in the end was wrong.
Those fearmongering ads and Trump’s endorsement likely helped Cuomo, and that’s horrifying.
Guessed well on Mamdani’s % and the coalitions, but my thought process that many Republicans would still hate Cuomo enough to stick with Silwa in the end was wrong.
Those fearmongering ads and Trump’s endorsement likely helped Cuomo, and that’s horrifying.
November 5, 2025 at 5:34 AM
Yikes.
Guessed well on Mamdani’s % and the coalitions, but my thought process that many Republicans would still hate Cuomo enough to stick with Silwa in the end was wrong.
Those fearmongering ads and Trump’s endorsement likely helped Cuomo, and that’s horrifying.
Guessed well on Mamdani’s % and the coalitions, but my thought process that many Republicans would still hate Cuomo enough to stick with Silwa in the end was wrong.
Those fearmongering ads and Trump’s endorsement likely helped Cuomo, and that’s horrifying.
St. Louis County's biggest election tonight was Proposition S in Rockwood School District, which would have raised its tax levy by 45 cents per $100 of assessed valuation-from approximately $3.7426/$100 to $4.1926/$100.
With all polls closed, it was defeated by just 497 votes.
With all polls closed, it was defeated by just 497 votes.
November 5, 2025 at 4:29 AM
St. Louis County's biggest election tonight was Proposition S in Rockwood School District, which would have raised its tax levy by 45 cents per $100 of assessed valuation-from approximately $3.7426/$100 to $4.1926/$100.
With all polls closed, it was defeated by just 497 votes.
With all polls closed, it was defeated by just 497 votes.
Tossing in my final guess at NYC by council district:
A mashup of polls, demographic data, the 2025 primary and recent generals, plus whatever sliver of bias slipped in.
Among the main candidates:
Mamdani 51.1%, Cuomo 28.3%, Sliwa 20.6%
A mashup of polls, demographic data, the 2025 primary and recent generals, plus whatever sliver of bias slipped in.
Among the main candidates:
Mamdani 51.1%, Cuomo 28.3%, Sliwa 20.6%
November 5, 2025 at 12:04 AM
Tossing in my final guess at NYC by council district:
A mashup of polls, demographic data, the 2025 primary and recent generals, plus whatever sliver of bias slipped in.
Among the main candidates:
Mamdani 51.1%, Cuomo 28.3%, Sliwa 20.6%
A mashup of polls, demographic data, the 2025 primary and recent generals, plus whatever sliver of bias slipped in.
Among the main candidates:
Mamdani 51.1%, Cuomo 28.3%, Sliwa 20.6%