Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org
Civic entrepreneur building broadsheet social media at kronkite.social. I also chair Unhack Democracy and write on foreign affairs, defence and democracy.
My substack: garvanwalshe.org
My substack: garvanwalshe.org
Pinned
A Trumpist attack on Greenland wouldn’t just be an attack on Denmark or Europe. It would be the start of a civil war in the transatlantic alliance between NATO and MAGA factions.
NATO has plenty of supporters in the US. Unfortunately MAGA despite its inherent imperialism has not a few in Europe.
NATO has plenty of supporters in the US. Unfortunately MAGA despite its inherent imperialism has not a few in Europe.
So, if the only way to have a European nuclear deterrent legally is to set up a federal European state…
*No gifs of Altiero Spinelli could be found
@andrewduffeu.bsky.social
*No gifs of Altiero Spinelli could be found
@andrewduffeu.bsky.social
The sobering conclusion in short: there are no good options.
And precisely therefore, it is essential Europeans start thinking now about which sub-optimal option(s) they want to invest in. Ignoring difficult questions now will - as ever so often - only raise the costs of action in the future.
And precisely therefore, it is essential Europeans start thinking now about which sub-optimal option(s) they want to invest in. Ignoring difficult questions now will - as ever so often - only raise the costs of action in the future.
February 12, 2026 at 12:08 PM
So, if the only way to have a European nuclear deterrent legally is to set up a federal European state…
*No gifs of Altiero Spinelli could be found
@andrewduffeu.bsky.social
*No gifs of Altiero Spinelli could be found
@andrewduffeu.bsky.social
Europe has a narrow window of opportunity.
Just as we acted on health in the pandemic & on defence after Ukraine, now we must act on competitiveness.
•Complete Single Market
•Simplify procedures
•Turn savings into investment
•Strengthen strategic autonomy
•Pursue ambitious free & fair trade agenda
Just as we acted on health in the pandemic & on defence after Ukraine, now we must act on competitiveness.
•Complete Single Market
•Simplify procedures
•Turn savings into investment
•Strengthen strategic autonomy
•Pursue ambitious free & fair trade agenda
February 12, 2026 at 11:40 AM
Is a European Security Council putting the cart before the horse?
We need
- Common procurement ⬇️ costs and ⬆️ interop
- US-free cmd structure, doctrine, exercising
- Secure technology sharing between European and middle power allies (JP, SK, Aus, Ca)
Can an ESC achieve that?
We need
- Common procurement ⬇️ costs and ⬆️ interop
- US-free cmd structure, doctrine, exercising
- Secure technology sharing between European and middle power allies (JP, SK, Aus, Ca)
Can an ESC achieve that?
European Security Council: why creating a new institution is not the most realistic option. Making better use of existing formats can deliver just what Europe needs, argues @lscazzieri.bsky.social. 🔗 ow.ly/3AbV50YebZw
February 12, 2026 at 9:43 AM
Is a European Security Council putting the cart before the horse?
We need
- Common procurement ⬇️ costs and ⬆️ interop
- US-free cmd structure, doctrine, exercising
- Secure technology sharing between European and middle power allies (JP, SK, Aus, Ca)
Can an ESC achieve that?
We need
- Common procurement ⬇️ costs and ⬆️ interop
- US-free cmd structure, doctrine, exercising
- Secure technology sharing between European and middle power allies (JP, SK, Aus, Ca)
Can an ESC achieve that?
Indeed. Hope major West European states see this too.
My most flaming hot take is that they see Russian collapse as relatively imminent* and want a deal. If RF collapse with no deal, Trump gets no credit and US leverage diminishes.
*So many red flashing lights on the attrition board. It mainly awaits a catalyst now.
*So many red flashing lights on the attrition board. It mainly awaits a catalyst now.
Take claims that Ukraine will hold elections in May and the war will end in the summer with a grain of salt. All we know right now is that yet another White House push to bully Ukraine on behalf of Ru is under way. That's all Trump's been doing for a whole year. This too shall pass.
February 11, 2026 at 8:14 PM
Indeed. Hope major West European states see this too.
Reposted by Garvan Walshe
Applications are now open for the 13th Clara Marina O’Donnell fellowship, full details below.
Start date: October 2026 for six months
Pay: London Living Wage
Applications in by: 09/04/26
@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social @brookings.edu @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social
buff.ly/3vV64SZ
Start date: October 2026 for six months
Pay: London Living Wage
Applications in by: 09/04/26
@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social @brookings.edu @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social
buff.ly/3vV64SZ
February 11, 2026 at 2:03 PM
Applications are now open for the 13th Clara Marina O’Donnell fellowship, full details below.
Start date: October 2026 for six months
Pay: London Living Wage
Applications in by: 09/04/26
@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social @brookings.edu @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social
buff.ly/3vV64SZ
Start date: October 2026 for six months
Pay: London Living Wage
Applications in by: 09/04/26
@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social @brookings.edu @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social
buff.ly/3vV64SZ
It’s in the spirit of David Graeber’s writings which are infuriating if you don’t share his many assumptions.
February 11, 2026 at 2:02 PM
It’s in the spirit of David Graeber’s writings which are infuriating if you don’t share his many assumptions.
I know, it was a rhetorical question :)
February 11, 2026 at 1:47 PM
I know, it was a rhetorical question :)
EU funded NGOs play a vital role in defending the rights of Europeans including when the governments of their own member states abandon them.
The process is bureaucratic but transparent - where did the MCC get its money from?
Who is the “ultimate beneficial owner”?
The process is bureaucratic but transparent - where did the MCC get its money from?
Who is the “ultimate beneficial owner”?
Their arguments - unsurprisingly - are not very convincing.
By "recently uncovered" I guess the MCC means that they read @democracyreporting.bsky.social's press release 🫠
By "recently uncovered" I guess the MCC means that they read @democracyreporting.bsky.social's press release 🫠
February 11, 2026 at 1:08 PM
EU funded NGOs play a vital role in defending the rights of Europeans including when the governments of their own member states abandon them.
The process is bureaucratic but transparent - where did the MCC get its money from?
Who is the “ultimate beneficial owner”?
The process is bureaucratic but transparent - where did the MCC get its money from?
Who is the “ultimate beneficial owner”?
Reposted by Garvan Walshe
In Europe, goods and people mostly move freely — but services are still largely stuck behind a web of national bureaucracy. We are, in effect, sanctioning our own economies, warns MEP Barry Andrews.
A shared market for services? EU leaders’ competitiveness summit blind spot
In Europe, goods and people mostly move freely — but services are still largely stuck behind a web of national bureaucracy. We are, in effect, sanctioning our own economies, warns MEP Barry Andrews.
euobserver.com
February 11, 2026 at 12:50 PM
In Europe, goods and people mostly move freely — but services are still largely stuck behind a web of national bureaucracy. We are, in effect, sanctioning our own economies, warns MEP Barry Andrews.
If you’re looking at final goods yes - how does that play out with components?
February 11, 2026 at 11:21 AM
If you’re looking at final goods yes - how does that play out with components?
But don’t you normally have global unbundled oligopolies with fairly spread out supply chains? (Or at least regional-global ones)?
February 11, 2026 at 10:24 AM
But don’t you normally have global unbundled oligopolies with fairly spread out supply chains? (Or at least regional-global ones)?
Well if the EU believes itself to be in such a crisis and needs radical change it could start thinking radically. (As it happens I don’t think it has a major economic crisis at continental level but they do). I think it’s localised in Getmany and Italy.
February 11, 2026 at 10:06 AM
Well if the EU believes itself to be in such a crisis and needs radical change it could start thinking radically. (As it happens I don’t think it has a major economic crisis at continental level but they do). I think it’s localised in Getmany and Italy.
I read the article they just said they should address it but didn’t provide detail.
February 11, 2026 at 10:04 AM
I read the article they just said they should address it but didn’t provide detail.
It could also have been luck. I don’t think industrial suits democracies because it’s too hard to kill off failed projects, which is what China does.
February 11, 2026 at 10:03 AM
It could also have been luck. I don’t think industrial suits democracies because it’s too hard to kill off failed projects, which is what China does.
Airbus is the only example I can think of. I don’t know whether the particularly capital intensive and difficult nature of building commercial aircraft has a role here. Nobody apart from the big 2 has managed to go beyond regional jets.
February 11, 2026 at 10:03 AM
Airbus is the only example I can think of. I don’t know whether the particularly capital intensive and difficult nature of building commercial aircraft has a role here. Nobody apart from the big 2 has managed to go beyond regional jets.
Another piece of mercantilist advocacy here. But even if you think mercantilism and import substitution work (I don’t) this doesn’t address the generation of growth in Europe’s much larger service sector.
When EU leaders meet tomorrow to discuss the EU’s competitiveness agenda, they should stop chasing ghosts and confront the real problem Europe‘s economy is facing.
Our latest for @politico.eu with @nilsredeker.bsky.social and @sandertordoir.bsky.social 👇
Our latest for @politico.eu with @nilsredeker.bsky.social and @sandertordoir.bsky.social 👇
Europe is chasing the wrong fix for its growth crisis
The continent’s old growth model no longer works in today’s world. And EU leaders need a plan that matches the scale of this shift.
www.politico.eu
February 11, 2026 at 9:51 AM
Another piece of mercantilist advocacy here. But even if you think mercantilism and import substitution work (I don’t) this doesn’t address the generation of growth in Europe’s much larger service sector.
If you allow edits you need to store a chain of edits, and in principle you have to allow edits from multiple clients simultaneously…not impossible but one of a genuinely dificult sets of problems..”
You basically change the knowledge model from political science to history :)
You basically change the knowledge model from political science to history :)
February 11, 2026 at 9:44 AM
If you allow edits you need to store a chain of edits, and in principle you have to allow edits from multiple clients simultaneously…not impossible but one of a genuinely dificult sets of problems..”
You basically change the knowledge model from political science to history :)
You basically change the knowledge model from political science to history :)
Edit buttons are much harder than one might think.
February 11, 2026 at 9:26 AM
Edit buttons are much harder than one might think.
Quite notable David that Sweden’s arms industry is based in the EU but manufactures for export. This is probably a good model for European industrial export growth and better than the mercantilism advocated elsewhere. Perhaps you could call it the Gripen model - Fredrik would approve!
February 11, 2026 at 8:55 AM
Quite notable David that Sweden’s arms industry is based in the EU but manufactures for export. This is probably a good model for European industrial export growth and better than the mercantilism advocated elsewhere. Perhaps you could call it the Gripen model - Fredrik would approve!
Hostile act by the Trump administration. It needs to be rejected.
NEW: Ukraine has begun planning presidential elections alongside a referendum on any peace deal with Russia, after the Trump administration pressed Kyiv to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing proposed US security guarantees
w/ @henryjfoy.ft.com @maxseddon.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/50d3...
w/ @henryjfoy.ft.com @maxseddon.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/50d3...
Zelenskyy plans spring elections alongside referendum on peace deal after US push
Trump administration has pressured Ukrainian leader to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing security guarantees
www.ft.com
February 11, 2026 at 7:39 AM
Hostile act by the Trump administration. It needs to be rejected.
Quick comparison with a few EU states - uk inflation high and persisting; Uk disposable income extremely weak; only Italy similar but for longer period; tax take up everywhere;
February 10, 2026 at 8:56 PM
Quick comparison with a few EU states - uk inflation high and persisting; Uk disposable income extremely weak; only Italy similar but for longer period; tax take up everywhere;
I’ll need to redo this because there’s minor chart crime going on - real disposable income takes account of inflation but the price level records inflation, but I’m out of Claude credits and don’t want to hook it up to my api account now.
I’ve also got it to generate equivalents for many EU states
I’ve also got it to generate equivalents for many EU states
February 10, 2026 at 8:53 PM
I’ll need to redo this because there’s minor chart crime going on - real disposable income takes account of inflation but the price level records inflation, but I’m out of Claude credits and don’t want to hook it up to my api account now.
I’ve also got it to generate equivalents for many EU states
I’ve also got it to generate equivalents for many EU states
I’ll do a substack on this - comparing all EU member states too and if Claude provides it the python it used to generate the graphs
February 10, 2026 at 8:51 PM
I’ll do a substack on this - comparing all EU member states too and if Claude provides it the python it used to generate the graphs