Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org
Civic entrepreneur building broadsheet social media at kronkite.social. I also chair Unhack Democracy and write on foreign affairs, defence and democracy.
My substack: garvanwalshe.org
My substack: garvanwalshe.org
Pinned
A Trumpist attack on Greenland wouldn’t just be an attack on Denmark or Europe. It would be the start of a civil war in the transatlantic alliance between NATO and MAGA factions.
NATO has plenty of supporters in the US. Unfortunately MAGA despite its inherent imperialism has not a few in Europe.
NATO has plenty of supporters in the US. Unfortunately MAGA despite its inherent imperialism has not a few in Europe.
Reposted by Garvan Walshe
In Europe, goods and people mostly move freely — but services are still largely stuck behind a web of national bureaucracy. We are, in effect, sanctioning our own economies, warns MEP Barry Andrews.
A shared market for services? EU leaders’ competitiveness summit blind spot
In Europe, goods and people mostly move freely — but services are still largely stuck behind a web of national bureaucracy. We are, in effect, sanctioning our own economies, warns MEP Barry Andrews.
euobserver.com
February 11, 2026 at 12:50 PM
In Europe, goods and people mostly move freely — but services are still largely stuck behind a web of national bureaucracy. We are, in effect, sanctioning our own economies, warns MEP Barry Andrews.
If you’re looking at final goods yes - how does that play out with components?
February 11, 2026 at 11:21 AM
If you’re looking at final goods yes - how does that play out with components?
But don’t you normally have global unbundled oligopolies with fairly spread out supply chains? (Or at least regional-global ones)?
February 11, 2026 at 10:24 AM
But don’t you normally have global unbundled oligopolies with fairly spread out supply chains? (Or at least regional-global ones)?
Well if the EU believes itself to be in such a crisis and needs radical change it could start thinking radically. (As it happens I don’t think it has a major economic crisis at continental level but they do). I think it’s localised in Getmany and Italy.
February 11, 2026 at 10:06 AM
Well if the EU believes itself to be in such a crisis and needs radical change it could start thinking radically. (As it happens I don’t think it has a major economic crisis at continental level but they do). I think it’s localised in Getmany and Italy.
I read the article they just said they should address it but didn’t provide detail.
February 11, 2026 at 10:04 AM
I read the article they just said they should address it but didn’t provide detail.
It could also have been luck. I don’t think industrial suits democracies because it’s too hard to kill off failed projects, which is what China does.
February 11, 2026 at 10:03 AM
It could also have been luck. I don’t think industrial suits democracies because it’s too hard to kill off failed projects, which is what China does.
Airbus is the only example I can think of. I don’t know whether the particularly capital intensive and difficult nature of building commercial aircraft has a role here. Nobody apart from the big 2 has managed to go beyond regional jets.
February 11, 2026 at 10:03 AM
Airbus is the only example I can think of. I don’t know whether the particularly capital intensive and difficult nature of building commercial aircraft has a role here. Nobody apart from the big 2 has managed to go beyond regional jets.
Another piece of mercantilist advocacy here. But even if you think mercantilism and import substitution work (I don’t) this doesn’t address the generation of growth in Europe’s much larger service sector.
When EU leaders meet tomorrow to discuss the EU’s competitiveness agenda, they should stop chasing ghosts and confront the real problem Europe‘s economy is facing.
Our latest for @politico.eu with @nilsredeker.bsky.social and @sandertordoir.bsky.social 👇
Our latest for @politico.eu with @nilsredeker.bsky.social and @sandertordoir.bsky.social 👇
Europe is chasing the wrong fix for its growth crisis
The continent’s old growth model no longer works in today’s world. And EU leaders need a plan that matches the scale of this shift.
www.politico.eu
February 11, 2026 at 9:51 AM
Another piece of mercantilist advocacy here. But even if you think mercantilism and import substitution work (I don’t) this doesn’t address the generation of growth in Europe’s much larger service sector.
If you allow edits you need to store a chain of edits, and in principle you have to allow edits from multiple clients simultaneously…not impossible but one of a genuinely dificult sets of problems..”
You basically change the knowledge model from political science to history :)
You basically change the knowledge model from political science to history :)
February 11, 2026 at 9:44 AM
If you allow edits you need to store a chain of edits, and in principle you have to allow edits from multiple clients simultaneously…not impossible but one of a genuinely dificult sets of problems..”
You basically change the knowledge model from political science to history :)
You basically change the knowledge model from political science to history :)
Edit buttons are much harder than one might think.
February 11, 2026 at 9:26 AM
Edit buttons are much harder than one might think.
Quite notable David that Sweden’s arms industry is based in the EU but manufactures for export. This is probably a good model for European industrial export growth and better than the mercantilism advocated elsewhere. Perhaps you could call it the Gripen model - Fredrik would approve!
February 11, 2026 at 8:55 AM
Quite notable David that Sweden’s arms industry is based in the EU but manufactures for export. This is probably a good model for European industrial export growth and better than the mercantilism advocated elsewhere. Perhaps you could call it the Gripen model - Fredrik would approve!
Hostile act by the Trump administration. It needs to be rejected.
NEW: Ukraine has begun planning presidential elections alongside a referendum on any peace deal with Russia, after the Trump administration pressed Kyiv to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing proposed US security guarantees
w/ @henryjfoy.ft.com @maxseddon.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/50d3...
w/ @henryjfoy.ft.com @maxseddon.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/50d3...
Zelenskyy plans spring elections alongside referendum on peace deal after US push
Trump administration has pressured Ukrainian leader to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing security guarantees
www.ft.com
February 11, 2026 at 7:39 AM
Hostile act by the Trump administration. It needs to be rejected.
Quick comparison with a few EU states - uk inflation high and persisting; Uk disposable income extremely weak; only Italy similar but for longer period; tax take up everywhere;
February 10, 2026 at 8:56 PM
Quick comparison with a few EU states - uk inflation high and persisting; Uk disposable income extremely weak; only Italy similar but for longer period; tax take up everywhere;
I’ll need to redo this because there’s minor chart crime going on - real disposable income takes account of inflation but the price level records inflation, but I’m out of Claude credits and don’t want to hook it up to my api account now.
I’ve also got it to generate equivalents for many EU states
I’ve also got it to generate equivalents for many EU states
February 10, 2026 at 8:53 PM
I’ll need to redo this because there’s minor chart crime going on - real disposable income takes account of inflation but the price level records inflation, but I’m out of Claude credits and don’t want to hook it up to my api account now.
I’ve also got it to generate equivalents for many EU states
I’ve also got it to generate equivalents for many EU states
I’ll do a substack on this - comparing all EU member states too and if Claude provides it the python it used to generate the graphs
February 10, 2026 at 8:51 PM
I’ll do a substack on this - comparing all EU member states too and if Claude provides it the python it used to generate the graphs
As an aside - an amazing example of using LLMs to do simple data analysis quickly.
February 10, 2026 at 8:33 PM
As an aside - an amazing example of using LLMs to do simple data analysis quickly.
And with taxes - 3rd quintile to approximate median
February 10, 2026 at 8:29 PM
And with taxes - 3rd quintile to approximate median
Now, with real disposable income (green line). How much!?
February 10, 2026 at 8:24 PM
Now, with real disposable income (green line). How much!?
Interesting idea but I just asked claude to do me a median wages vs price level comparison and it gave me this which suggests what Cummings is saying is not true.
Perhaps people still feel the effects of the 2021-2023 inflation with a lag?
Perhaps people still feel the effects of the 2021-2023 inflation with a lag?
February 10, 2026 at 8:09 PM
Interesting idea but I just asked claude to do me a median wages vs price level comparison and it gave me this which suggests what Cummings is saying is not true.
Perhaps people still feel the effects of the 2021-2023 inflation with a lag?
Perhaps people still feel the effects of the 2021-2023 inflation with a lag?
Great. But could they fast track some equipment for them to use too?
February 10, 2026 at 7:18 PM
Great. But could they fast track some equipment for them to use too?
- Mr Lulea, you’re a Romanian nationalist?
- Lulea: Yes
-So you’d defend Romania from foreign invasion?
- Lulea: Well no, not if it’s Russia invading
- I have no further questions
Funny how every European “nationalist” would sell their country out to Putin
- Lulea: Yes
-So you’d defend Romania from foreign invasion?
- Lulea: Well no, not if it’s Russia invading
- I have no further questions
Funny how every European “nationalist” would sell their country out to Putin
AUR leader says he'd cede Romanian land to Russia to avoid a possible war. Likely representative 40-60% of party voters
Even in hypothetical scenarios they can't pretend or try spinning it somewhat, to dumb, to vile. Nationalism of the 21st century. Old Vadim/Funar wouldn't have stooped so low
Even in hypothetical scenarios they can't pretend or try spinning it somewhat, to dumb, to vile. Nationalism of the 21st century. Old Vadim/Funar wouldn't have stooped so low
@miyhnea.bsky.social
>BVSED irredentism blood and soil nationalist party
>look inside
>"we have to give up our own territories so the big russia doesn't conquer us :'(((("
The fascist internationale. Literally all of them are like this regardless of country. When are we hanging these people?
>BVSED irredentism blood and soil nationalist party
>look inside
>"we have to give up our own territories so the big russia doesn't conquer us :'(((("
The fascist internationale. Literally all of them are like this regardless of country. When are we hanging these people?
February 10, 2026 at 7:17 PM
- Mr Lulea, you’re a Romanian nationalist?
- Lulea: Yes
-So you’d defend Romania from foreign invasion?
- Lulea: Well no, not if it’s Russia invading
- I have no further questions
Funny how every European “nationalist” would sell their country out to Putin
- Lulea: Yes
-So you’d defend Romania from foreign invasion?
- Lulea: Well no, not if it’s Russia invading
- I have no further questions
Funny how every European “nationalist” would sell their country out to Putin
Great part of a thread on the damage done to British fiscal policy by the political system’s inability to make non-simplistic decisions.
One of those insane things the Tories did that just mangled the marginal rates for no reason pretty much.
February 10, 2026 at 6:28 PM
Great part of a thread on the damage done to British fiscal policy by the political system’s inability to make non-simplistic decisions.
There’s a lot for both France and Germany to reflect on here to put it mildly! You really need some centralising pressure to force them to compromise.
February 10, 2026 at 5:16 PM
There’s a lot for both France and Germany to reflect on here to put it mildly! You really need some centralising pressure to force them to compromise.
Very good to see people talking of expanding pesco - its current limitation to procurement is not required by the treaties and this would be a very positive idea. I hope someone takes this up or indeed that @maxbergmann.bsky.social himself expands on it!
I think something new needs to be built. A Schengen type structure created through PESCO is one option. But the geopolitical problem with a pure Coalition of the Willing of states is it maintains the divorce in Europe between economic and military power. In a war, need to have that linked.
February 10, 2026 at 3:15 PM
Very good to see people talking of expanding pesco - its current limitation to procurement is not required by the treaties and this would be a very positive idea. I hope someone takes this up or indeed that @maxbergmann.bsky.social himself expands on it!