Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org
Civic entrepreneur building broadsheet social media at kronkite.social. I also chair Unhack Democracy and write on foreign affairs, defence and democracy.
My substack: garvanwalshe.org
My substack: garvanwalshe.org
Pinned
Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org
· Jan 14
A Trumpist attack on Greenland wouldn’t just be an attack on Denmark or Europe. It would be the start of a civil war in the transatlantic alliance between NATO and MAGA factions.
NATO has plenty of supporters in the US. Unfortunately MAGA despite its inherent imperialism has not a few in Europe.
NATO has plenty of supporters in the US. Unfortunately MAGA despite its inherent imperialism has not a few in Europe.
You could give it up, but that would cost you 452 quid!
February 14, 2026 at 7:54 AM
You could give it up, but that would cost you 452 quid!
Reposted by Garvan Walshe
Trump polices have triggered a divide between Europe and the US. Europeans, please remember that Trump policies have also triggered a deep divide between Americans. We don’t all think alike.
February 13, 2026 at 4:25 PM
Trump polices have triggered a divide between Europe and the US. Europeans, please remember that Trump policies have also triggered a deep divide between Americans. We don’t all think alike.
Discovery from this article: “Britain charges a fee (£462) to renounce citizenship.”
That surely offends against the British sense of fair play.
That surely offends against the British sense of fair play.
One can make the case for requiring either a UK passport or some further documentation for dual British nationals to enter the country (this is true for eg the US). But making this change rapidly and getting a certificate so expensive is yet another Home Office cockup. Why always so draconian?
Gabrielle was all set for a routine trip from Australia to the UK. Then the rules for dual citizens suddenly changed
From 25 February all dual citizens visiting the UK must use their British passport, leaving many scrambling to get their documents in order
www.theguardian.com
February 13, 2026 at 2:48 PM
Discovery from this article: “Britain charges a fee (£462) to renounce citizenship.”
That surely offends against the British sense of fair play.
That surely offends against the British sense of fair play.
I don’t think that will pass the courts tbh.
February 13, 2026 at 2:14 PM
I don’t think that will pass the courts tbh.
Facts and norms hm
Breaking News: The Trump administration repealed the bedrock scientific finding that greenhouse gases threaten human life and well being, meaning that the EPA can no longer regulate them. nyti.ms/4rSszQu
February 13, 2026 at 1:03 PM
Facts and norms hm
I don’t get this. Bluesky has infinite scrolling too.
February 13, 2026 at 12:58 PM
I don’t get this. Bluesky has infinite scrolling too.
They were tried but acquitted in a rather eccentric jury verdict
February 13, 2026 at 12:04 PM
They were tried but acquitted in a rather eccentric jury verdict
Ending ETS just at the point when solar and wind are cheaper than fossil fuels in order to give dirty dangerous and old fashioned technology of the 19th and 20th century would be very stupid and send Europe’s industry into the past
New headwinds for the ETS from EU leaders. EUCO President Costa:
“It is true that there are some leaders who don’t like ETS, but there several leaders who like ETS and took the floor to defend the system and that’s the reason we need to continue our discussion on this issue.”
“It is true that there are some leaders who don’t like ETS, but there several leaders who like ETS and took the floor to defend the system and that’s the reason we need to continue our discussion on this issue.”
February 13, 2026 at 12:03 PM
Ending ETS just at the point when solar and wind are cheaper than fossil fuels in order to give dirty dangerous and old fashioned technology of the 19th and 20th century would be very stupid and send Europe’s industry into the past
The court also said they were engaged in criminal damage - but that this was not enough to proscribe them.
Then again Polanski is not a serious politician.
Then again Polanski is not a serious politician.
A court has ruled that the government's authoritarian ban on Palestine Action was unlawful.
Time to stop criminalising the people protesting a genocide - and start ending the UK's complicity.
Time to stop criminalising the people protesting a genocide - and start ending the UK's complicity.
February 13, 2026 at 11:57 AM
The court also said they were engaged in criminal damage - but that this was not enough to proscribe them.
Then again Polanski is not a serious politician.
Then again Polanski is not a serious politician.
Fun fact about Klodsko - I once came across a portrait of Adolf himself being sold on the street market there - probably one the previous German inhabitants had shoved in the attic in ‘45
February 13, 2026 at 11:02 AM
Fun fact about Klodsko - I once came across a portrait of Adolf himself being sold on the street market there - probably one the previous German inhabitants had shoved in the attic in ‘45
Portugal leading support for the Eurobomb…
Winds of change, Zeitenwende, etc:
Europe has changed.
Poll finds clear majorities for increasing defence spending and a European nuclear deterrent.
Source ecfr.eu/publication/...
Europe has changed.
Poll finds clear majorities for increasing defence spending and a European nuclear deterrent.
Source ecfr.eu/publication/...
February 13, 2026 at 8:33 AM
Portugal leading support for the Eurobomb…
The EU has the American system too and it’s also almost impossible to remove commissioners.
February 13, 2026 at 6:42 AM
The EU has the American system too and it’s also almost impossible to remove commissioners.
They did back then when the opp was split between dk and momentum and mszp and lmp (remember them!) but their method doesn’t particularly work when there’s a single dominant opposition party
February 12, 2026 at 6:59 PM
They did back then when the opp was split between dk and momentum and mszp and lmp (remember them!) but their method doesn’t particularly work when there’s a single dominant opposition party
Plus vote buying use of state resources as propaganda etc.
February 12, 2026 at 6:42 PM
Plus vote buying use of state resources as propaganda etc.
….and I’m condemned by the “Sovereignty Protection Office” for my electoral integrity work in Hungary.
…but the winner compensation is a far bigger effect than any constituency boundary fiddling and it’s blunted by a single party doing well
…but the winner compensation is a far bigger effect than any constituency boundary fiddling and it’s blunted by a single party doing well
February 12, 2026 at 6:42 PM
….and I’m condemned by the “Sovereignty Protection Office” for my electoral integrity work in Hungary.
…but the winner compensation is a far bigger effect than any constituency boundary fiddling and it’s blunted by a single party doing well
…but the winner compensation is a far bigger effect than any constituency boundary fiddling and it’s blunted by a single party doing well
And they have fake voters they bus across the border, register them at pigsties and 80 of them at small houses - and then legalised the practice.
And they pull shit like this
bsky.app/profile/szab...
And they pull shit like this
bsky.app/profile/szab...
💥Dramatic turn in Hungary’s election race: Orbán rival Péter Magyar says that in 2024 his ex-girlfriend set a honey trap to secretly record them having sex—footage he claims Orbán’s camp plans to publish to ruin and blackmail him.
Magyar currently holds a big lead in the polls. Election in 59 days.
Magyar currently holds a big lead in the polls. Election in 59 days.
February 12, 2026 at 6:42 PM
And they have fake voters they bus across the border, register them at pigsties and 80 of them at small houses - and then legalised the practice.
And they pull shit like this
bsky.app/profile/szab...
And they pull shit like this
bsky.app/profile/szab...
I’d categorise that as slight gerrymandering (there’s been a bit of boundary fiddling)
February 12, 2026 at 6:32 PM
I’d categorise that as slight gerrymandering (there’s been a bit of boundary fiddling)
That’s mostly a size effect because of winner compensation. (Like a German style top up but for the winning candidate - it turns what looks like PR into FPTP) .
February 12, 2026 at 6:29 PM
That’s mostly a size effect because of winner compensation. (Like a German style top up but for the winning candidate - it turns what looks like PR into FPTP) .
How? That doesn’t look gerrymandered at all from those figures. The Hungarian system favours big parties but the tilt to Fidesz is not huge in how votes are transformed into seats. There are many unfairnesses in the system without extrapolating extra ones.
February 12, 2026 at 6:26 PM
How? That doesn’t look gerrymandered at all from those figures. The Hungarian system favours big parties but the tilt to Fidesz is not huge in how votes are transformed into seats. There are many unfairnesses in the system without extrapolating extra ones.
I’m told that pre-social media spads were a useful link here, but then they got overwhelmed firefighting. I also suspect having parties with an ideology helped - ideologies provide rules of thumb about what “we” should do and what is considered beyond the pale for a govt.
February 12, 2026 at 2:10 PM
I’m told that pre-social media spads were a useful link here, but then they got overwhelmed firefighting. I also suspect having parties with an ideology helped - ideologies provide rules of thumb about what “we” should do and what is considered beyond the pale for a govt.
In a political world where campaign strategy drives comms which drives policy, in that order, policy is put at the bottom of the heap. (UK)
In a policy driven world the comms is given excessively technical stuff to sell, but no influence over the product (European Commission)
Neither ideal
In a policy driven world the comms is given excessively technical stuff to sell, but no influence over the product (European Commission)
Neither ideal
You'd think this would be obvious. But it isn't. In the end, good policy will often produce good communications. Good communications will never on its own produce good policy. And in a valence world, policy and outcomes are what counts.
February 12, 2026 at 1:36 PM
In a political world where campaign strategy drives comms which drives policy, in that order, policy is put at the bottom of the heap. (UK)
In a policy driven world the comms is given excessively technical stuff to sell, but no influence over the product (European Commission)
Neither ideal
In a policy driven world the comms is given excessively technical stuff to sell, but no influence over the product (European Commission)
Neither ideal
So, if the only way to have a European nuclear deterrent legally is to set up a federal European state…
*No gifs of Altiero Spinelli could be found
@andrewduffeu.bsky.social
*No gifs of Altiero Spinelli could be found
@andrewduffeu.bsky.social
The sobering conclusion in short: there are no good options.
And precisely therefore, it is essential Europeans start thinking now about which sub-optimal option(s) they want to invest in. Ignoring difficult questions now will - as ever so often - only raise the costs of action in the future.
And precisely therefore, it is essential Europeans start thinking now about which sub-optimal option(s) they want to invest in. Ignoring difficult questions now will - as ever so often - only raise the costs of action in the future.
February 12, 2026 at 12:08 PM
So, if the only way to have a European nuclear deterrent legally is to set up a federal European state…
*No gifs of Altiero Spinelli could be found
@andrewduffeu.bsky.social
*No gifs of Altiero Spinelli could be found
@andrewduffeu.bsky.social
Europe has a narrow window of opportunity.
Just as we acted on health in the pandemic & on defence after Ukraine, now we must act on competitiveness.
•Complete Single Market
•Simplify procedures
•Turn savings into investment
•Strengthen strategic autonomy
•Pursue ambitious free & fair trade agenda
Just as we acted on health in the pandemic & on defence after Ukraine, now we must act on competitiveness.
•Complete Single Market
•Simplify procedures
•Turn savings into investment
•Strengthen strategic autonomy
•Pursue ambitious free & fair trade agenda
February 12, 2026 at 11:40 AM
Is a European Security Council putting the cart before the horse?
We need
- Common procurement ⬇️ costs and ⬆️ interop
- US-free cmd structure, doctrine, exercising
- Secure technology sharing between European and middle power allies (JP, SK, Aus, Ca)
Can an ESC achieve that?
We need
- Common procurement ⬇️ costs and ⬆️ interop
- US-free cmd structure, doctrine, exercising
- Secure technology sharing between European and middle power allies (JP, SK, Aus, Ca)
Can an ESC achieve that?
European Security Council: why creating a new institution is not the most realistic option. Making better use of existing formats can deliver just what Europe needs, argues @lscazzieri.bsky.social. 🔗 ow.ly/3AbV50YebZw
February 12, 2026 at 9:43 AM
Is a European Security Council putting the cart before the horse?
We need
- Common procurement ⬇️ costs and ⬆️ interop
- US-free cmd structure, doctrine, exercising
- Secure technology sharing between European and middle power allies (JP, SK, Aus, Ca)
Can an ESC achieve that?
We need
- Common procurement ⬇️ costs and ⬆️ interop
- US-free cmd structure, doctrine, exercising
- Secure technology sharing between European and middle power allies (JP, SK, Aus, Ca)
Can an ESC achieve that?
Indeed. Hope major West European states see this too.
My most flaming hot take is that they see Russian collapse as relatively imminent* and want a deal. If RF collapse with no deal, Trump gets no credit and US leverage diminishes.
*So many red flashing lights on the attrition board. It mainly awaits a catalyst now.
*So many red flashing lights on the attrition board. It mainly awaits a catalyst now.
Take claims that Ukraine will hold elections in May and the war will end in the summer with a grain of salt. All we know right now is that yet another White House push to bully Ukraine on behalf of Ru is under way. That's all Trump's been doing for a whole year. This too shall pass.
February 11, 2026 at 8:14 PM
Indeed. Hope major West European states see this too.