Fraser of Allander Institute
@fraserofallander.org
The Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde is an independent economic research unit providing expert analysis and insight on the Scottish economy. fraserofallander.org
More on the budget - if you haven't had enough!
Budget – day 3 reaction – Council tax & the Spending Review | FAI
Scotland will follow the UK Government’s example and introduce higher taxes on higher value properties. Whereas at the UK Government level this is being done as a new surcharge flowing to central…
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January 15, 2026 at 4:03 PM
More on the budget - if you haven't had enough!
Hear more about the details of the Scottish budget from FAI Director Mairi Spowage and Deputy Director João Sousa in our latest podcast 🎧
More on the 2026-27 Scottish Budget | FAI
FAI Director Mairi Spowage and Deputy Direction João Sousa join economist Hannah Randolph to talk through our immediate reaction to the Scottish budget statement. We discuss what was announced and…
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January 14, 2026 at 1:05 PM
Hear more about the details of the Scottish budget from FAI Director Mairi Spowage and Deputy Director João Sousa in our latest podcast 🎧
We have now updated our analysis, including:
- Why the health settlement looks too tight, especially given pay deals;
- Initial look at capital cuts;
- Why the income tax changes are expensive and change little;
- More details on child poverty plans.
fraserofallander.org/a-budget-whe...
- Why the health settlement looks too tight, especially given pay deals;
- Initial look at capital cuts;
- Why the income tax changes are expensive and change little;
- More details on child poverty plans.
fraserofallander.org/a-budget-whe...
January 13, 2026 at 6:55 PM
We have now updated our analysis, including:
- Why the health settlement looks too tight, especially given pay deals;
- Initial look at capital cuts;
- Why the income tax changes are expensive and change little;
- More details on child poverty plans.
fraserofallander.org/a-budget-whe...
- Why the health settlement looks too tight, especially given pay deals;
- Initial look at capital cuts;
- Why the income tax changes are expensive and change little;
- More details on child poverty plans.
fraserofallander.org/a-budget-whe...
The devil was in the detail and in what the Finance Secretary didn't say. Weaker tax revenues drove most of the £480m cut in day-to-day spending relative to June plans, even after raiding one-off pots; capital was cut by £850m. Our initial analysis:
buff.ly/99xjj1g
buff.ly/99xjj1g
A Budget where the silences were loudest | FAI
The devil was very much in the detail and in what wasn’t said by Shona Robison…
fraserofallander.org
January 13, 2026 at 4:54 PM
The devil was in the detail and in what the Finance Secretary didn't say. Weaker tax revenues drove most of the £480m cut in day-to-day spending relative to June plans, even after raiding one-off pots; capital was cut by £850m. Our initial analysis:
buff.ly/99xjj1g
buff.ly/99xjj1g
Our Director Mairi Spowage is on BBC Scotland now talking all things Budget and responding live:
Watch BBC Scotland live - BBC iPlayer
Watch BBC Scotland live on BBC iPlayer.
buff.ly
January 13, 2026 at 2:09 PM
Our Director Mairi Spowage is on BBC Scotland now talking all things Budget and responding live:
10/ If you're confused as to why a multi-year review is happening 4 months before an election - we presume because the many delivery bodies are desperate for some multi-year funding certainty, and ScotGov did not want further criticism for delay
January 9, 2026 at 12:01 PM
10/ If you're confused as to why a multi-year review is happening 4 months before an election - we presume because the many delivery bodies are desperate for some multi-year funding certainty, and ScotGov did not want further criticism for delay
9/ And finally, what can we expect from the Scottish Spending Review? If detailed lines are only Level 2 as in 2022, it's very high level - even level 4 is in many cases very opaque when it comes to services delivered by other bodies.
January 9, 2026 at 12:01 PM
9/ And finally, what can we expect from the Scottish Spending Review? If detailed lines are only Level 2 as in 2022, it's very high level - even level 4 is in many cases very opaque when it comes to services delivered by other bodies.
8/ We also look at how to make the aims of the Public Service Reform in relation to preventative budgeting a reality and what pitfalls need to be avoided:
- Being clear on what is being prevented
- Dealing with the practicalities of the budget process
buff.ly/KY0jrLr
- Being clear on what is being prevented
- Dealing with the practicalities of the budget process
buff.ly/KY0jrLr
Preventative budgeting in Scotland | FAI
Public service reform strategy and preventative budgeting - what needs to happen?
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January 9, 2026 at 12:01 PM
8/ We also look at how to make the aims of the Public Service Reform in relation to preventative budgeting a reality and what pitfalls need to be avoided:
- Being clear on what is being prevented
- Dealing with the practicalities of the budget process
buff.ly/KY0jrLr
- Being clear on what is being prevented
- Dealing with the practicalities of the budget process
buff.ly/KY0jrLr
7/ This is made much worse by the large gap by 29-30 in the MTFS, and looks impossible to close on tax alone - tax rate hikes would be v large because of Scottish income distribution. A degree of lower health spending growth would be required
January 9, 2026 at 12:01 PM
7/ This is made much worse by the large gap by 29-30 in the MTFS, and looks impossible to close on tax alone - tax rate hikes would be v large because of Scottish income distribution. A degree of lower health spending growth would be required
6/ The adjustment necessary at UK level is not too severe, requiring modestly bearing down on health spending growth and slightly increasing taxes. But the effects on the Scottish Budget would be severe, because much of the long-term ScotGov funding is health consequentials
January 9, 2026 at 12:01 PM
6/ The adjustment necessary at UK level is not too severe, requiring modestly bearing down on health spending growth and slightly increasing taxes. But the effects on the Scottish Budget would be severe, because much of the long-term ScotGov funding is health consequentials
5/ We have a deep dive into UK and Scottish fiscal sustainability.
Once we account for fiscal drag over the long-run, taxes are due to go up by >8% of GDP, or £250bn in today's terms. But poor productivity growth means that still isn’t enough to stop debt rising
Once we account for fiscal drag over the long-run, taxes are due to go up by >8% of GDP, or £250bn in today's terms. But poor productivity growth means that still isn’t enough to stop debt rising
January 9, 2026 at 12:01 PM
5/ We have a deep dive into UK and Scottish fiscal sustainability.
Once we account for fiscal drag over the long-run, taxes are due to go up by >8% of GDP, or £250bn in today's terms. But poor productivity growth means that still isn’t enough to stop debt rising
Once we account for fiscal drag over the long-run, taxes are due to go up by >8% of GDP, or £250bn in today's terms. But poor productivity growth means that still isn’t enough to stop debt rising
4/ On capital, something will have to give: We hope the long-awaited Infrastructure Investment Plan will explain to the public how projects have been prioritised – and crucially, which ones will no longer be going ahead and why
January 9, 2026 at 12:01 PM
4/ On capital, something will have to give: We hope the long-awaited Infrastructure Investment Plan will explain to the public how projects have been prioritised – and crucially, which ones will no longer be going ahead and why
3/ This will continue a years-long pattern of using exceptional items and non-recurring revenues to finance day-to-day spending. But this approach cannot be relied on indefinitely.
January 9, 2026 at 12:01 PM
3/ This will continue a years-long pattern of using exceptional items and non-recurring revenues to finance day-to-day spending. But this approach cannot be relied on indefinitely.
2/ The UK Budget increased funding by £300m , and further improvements to tax and social sec forecasts boost funding by an additional £450m.
On current plans, the Scottish Government will use this one-off boost to offset an underlying resource deficit of £0.5bn in 2026-27
On current plans, the Scottish Government will use this one-off boost to offset an underlying resource deficit of £0.5bn in 2026-27
January 9, 2026 at 12:01 PM
2/ The UK Budget increased funding by £300m , and further improvements to tax and social sec forecasts boost funding by an additional £450m.
On current plans, the Scottish Government will use this one-off boost to offset an underlying resource deficit of £0.5bn in 2026-27
On current plans, the Scottish Government will use this one-off boost to offset an underlying resource deficit of £0.5bn in 2026-27
1/ ICYMI: Scotland’s Budget Report 2026-27 is live today!
Here's the key takeaways from our report that you should know about the upcoming Scottish budget on Tuesday 13th Jan... 🧵
buff.ly/52A9kpV
Here's the key takeaways from our report that you should know about the upcoming Scottish budget on Tuesday 13th Jan... 🧵
buff.ly/52A9kpV
January 9, 2026 at 12:01 PM
1/ ICYMI: Scotland’s Budget Report 2026-27 is live today!
Here's the key takeaways from our report that you should know about the upcoming Scottish budget on Tuesday 13th Jan... 🧵
buff.ly/52A9kpV
Here's the key takeaways from our report that you should know about the upcoming Scottish budget on Tuesday 13th Jan... 🧵
buff.ly/52A9kpV
📢 NEW: Scotland’s Budget Report for 2026-27 📢
Today, we publish our report on the upcoming Scottish Budget. One-off boosts mask an underlying resource deficit, but prioritisation will be required to rewrite unaffordable investment plans with a £1bn+ gap.
Read more here:
Today, we publish our report on the upcoming Scottish Budget. One-off boosts mask an underlying resource deficit, but prioritisation will be required to rewrite unaffordable investment plans with a £1bn+ gap.
Read more here:
buff.ly
January 9, 2026 at 6:00 AM
📢 NEW: Scotland’s Budget Report for 2026-27 📢
Today, we publish our report on the upcoming Scottish Budget. One-off boosts mask an underlying resource deficit, but prioritisation will be required to rewrite unaffordable investment plans with a £1bn+ gap.
Read more here:
Today, we publish our report on the upcoming Scottish Budget. One-off boosts mask an underlying resource deficit, but prioritisation will be required to rewrite unaffordable investment plans with a £1bn+ gap.
Read more here:
How do we make the aims of the Public Service Reform Strategy in relation to preventative budgeting a reality and what pitfalls need to be avoided? Some of our thoughts here:
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
Preventative budgeting in Scotland | FAI
Public service reform strategy and preventative budgeting - what needs to happen?
fraserofallander.org
January 7, 2026 at 3:58 PM
How do we make the aims of the Public Service Reform Strategy in relation to preventative budgeting a reality and what pitfalls need to be avoided? Some of our thoughts here:
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
Reposted by Fraser of Allander Institute
1/ This latest piece I've worked on is a reassessment of the implications of some of the OBR's long-term assumptions on indexation and what it means for fiscal sustainability.
Key point: fiscal drag is a feature, not a bug, and taxes are already going up even when thresholds are no longer frozen
Key point: fiscal drag is a feature, not a bug, and taxes are already going up even when thresholds are no longer frozen
January 6, 2026 at 5:49 PM
1/ This latest piece I've worked on is a reassessment of the implications of some of the OBR's long-term assumptions on indexation and what it means for fiscal sustainability.
Key point: fiscal drag is a feature, not a bug, and taxes are already going up even when thresholds are no longer frozen
Key point: fiscal drag is a feature, not a bug, and taxes are already going up even when thresholds are no longer frozen
How far away is the UK from fiscal sustainability? Read below to find out how fiscal drag and health spending affect these projections, and why the action needed to tackle the issue is smaller than might appear:
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
How far away is the UK from fiscal sustainability? | FAI
If you have been anywhere near the discussions about UK fiscal sustainability, the numbers look grim…
fraserofallander.org
January 6, 2026 at 2:11 PM
How far away is the UK from fiscal sustainability? Read below to find out how fiscal drag and health spending affect these projections, and why the action needed to tackle the issue is smaller than might appear:
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
When ministers say the Scottish Budget is balanced, is it a meaningful statement? Have they been plugging gaps with borrowing and non-recurring funding, including in the ABR?
Welcome to our Budget Report preview series - look out for more in January!
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
Welcome to our Budget Report preview series - look out for more in January!
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
How balanced is the Scottish Budget? | FAI
It has almost become a ritual – an article of faith that is repeated endlessly in the Scottish Parliament…
fraserofallander.org
December 19, 2025 at 3:48 PM
When ministers say the Scottish Budget is balanced, is it a meaningful statement? Have they been plugging gaps with borrowing and non-recurring funding, including in the ABR?
Welcome to our Budget Report preview series - look out for more in January!
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
Welcome to our Budget Report preview series - look out for more in January!
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
Glasgow City Council is proposing new neighbourhood parking controls with pay & display fees and emissions-based permits.
🎙️In our latest podcast, Hannah, Allison, & Josh break down:
▶️ What these changes mean for residents
▶️How this ties to air quality & climate goals.
👂Listen now:
🎙️In our latest podcast, Hannah, Allison, & Josh break down:
▶️ What these changes mean for residents
▶️How this ties to air quality & climate goals.
👂Listen now:
buff.ly
December 18, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Glasgow City Council is proposing new neighbourhood parking controls with pay & display fees and emissions-based permits.
🎙️In our latest podcast, Hannah, Allison, & Josh break down:
▶️ What these changes mean for residents
▶️How this ties to air quality & climate goals.
👂Listen now:
🎙️In our latest podcast, Hannah, Allison, & Josh break down:
▶️ What these changes mean for residents
▶️How this ties to air quality & climate goals.
👂Listen now:
Reposted by Fraser of Allander Institute
1/📄 New working paper
www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwe...
On 4 Nov, the Chancellor heavily hinted Labour might break its manifesto and raise income tax. Nine days later: plan dropped, blamed on "better than expected OBR forecasts."
Those forecasts were delivered 5 days BEFORE her speech.
Thread 👇
www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwe...
On 4 Nov, the Chancellor heavily hinted Labour might break its manifesto and raise income tax. Nine days later: plan dropped, blamed on "better than expected OBR forecasts."
Those forecasts were delivered 5 days BEFORE her speech.
Thread 👇
December 12, 2025 at 3:28 PM
1/📄 New working paper
www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwe...
On 4 Nov, the Chancellor heavily hinted Labour might break its manifesto and raise income tax. Nine days later: plan dropped, blamed on "better than expected OBR forecasts."
Those forecasts were delivered 5 days BEFORE her speech.
Thread 👇
www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwe...
On 4 Nov, the Chancellor heavily hinted Labour might break its manifesto and raise income tax. Nine days later: plan dropped, blamed on "better than expected OBR forecasts."
Those forecasts were delivered 5 days BEFORE her speech.
Thread 👇
The chaos of the UK Budget showed a broken process. But how can it be fixed? In this blog, our deputy director @joaosousa.bsky.social proposes a way forward: the OBR would first publish its baseline forecast, with a three-week window for Treasury policymaking.
Read more below:
buff.ly/ErNtglY
Read more below:
buff.ly/ErNtglY
A broken UK Budget process - and proposal to fix it | FAI
The consequences of the drip, drip, drip of Treasury briefing to the press in advance were no more apparent than during the chaotic…
fraserofallander.org
December 12, 2025 at 1:25 PM
The chaos of the UK Budget showed a broken process. But how can it be fixed? In this blog, our deputy director @joaosousa.bsky.social proposes a way forward: the OBR would first publish its baseline forecast, with a three-week window for Treasury policymaking.
Read more below:
buff.ly/ErNtglY
Read more below:
buff.ly/ErNtglY
Today we are launching the Scottish Public Spending Dashboard, a collaboration between the FAI and JRF. This is a new tool allowing detailed government spending figures to be accessed and analysed by a broader set of people.
Learn more below:
Learn more below:
buff.ly
December 11, 2025 at 8:00 AM
Today we are launching the Scottish Public Spending Dashboard, a collaboration between the FAI and JRF. This is a new tool allowing detailed government spending figures to be accessed and analysed by a broader set of people.
Learn more below:
Learn more below: