Ethan Bueno de Mesquita
@ethanbdm.bsky.social
Studying accountability, national security, electoral accountability, political economy, tech & society, applied game theory @HarrisPolicy
.
Political science
52%
Sociology
23%
I'm taking credit for you reading fiction in 2025.
You are living a charmed life.
My whole mental model of you is broken by the absence of the Wellness reporting from this list.
I mean, I see what you are saying.
But I'll be damned if I'm going to hand it to Adorno.
But I'll be damned if I'm going to hand it to Adorno.
Just want to say that @amiethomasson.bsky.social's "Ontology Made Easy" is really wonderful.
Exceptionally clear and clarifying.
I can't recall feeling this positively about a book of academic philosophy since Hacking's Representing & Intervening.
(Note: It doesn't compete w/ Hacking for humor)
Exceptionally clear and clarifying.
I can't recall feeling this positively about a book of academic philosophy since Hacking's Representing & Intervening.
(Note: It doesn't compete w/ Hacking for humor)
Why?
If I want to discover that I don't really understand what's going on in my proof, I can just try to write the text explaining the result.
Or did you have in mind that I would try and succeed?
If I want to discover that I don't really understand what's going on in my proof, I can just try to write the text explaining the result.
Or did you have in mind that I would try and succeed?
Just here to say:
Pr(Engage in Violence | Very Online) \ne Pr(Very Online | Engage in Violence)
This is a bi-partisan error.
You may now return to yelling at one another.
Pr(Engage in Violence | Very Online) \ne Pr(Very Online | Engage in Violence)
This is a bi-partisan error.
You may now return to yelling at one another.
I mean, a promise is a promise, but I'm starting to feel as thought we'd be justified if we were to forget the way they thrilled the nation, with their T-formation.
Dear Intro Game Theory Instructors,
Martin Osborne conjured a world for all of us in which there is no need to impose the confusion of Dixit and Skeath on the poor, unsuspecting undergrads.
Sincerely,
Ethan
Martin Osborne conjured a world for all of us in which there is no need to impose the confusion of Dixit and Skeath on the poor, unsuspecting undergrads.
Sincerely,
Ethan
I mean, is it really worse than Automatic for the People?
We live in an age of technological wonders.
And yet, it is a bi-partisan consensus in the American government that the only way to protect the traveling public from the national security threats posed by a small tub of cream cheese is through TSA confiscation.
That's just the price of freedom.
And yet, it is a bi-partisan consensus in the American government that the only way to protect the traveling public from the national security threats posed by a small tub of cream cheese is through TSA confiscation.
That's just the price of freedom.
I’m unhappy with the wikipedia article on the median voter theorem.
The Straussian reading of this whole thread is interesting.
There is a plausible interpretation that @soashworth.bsky.social doesn't mean any of it.
Because if he was writing a thread he believed in, there is no way he would lead with the single-peaked MVT rather than the single-crossing MVT.
There is a plausible interpretation that @soashworth.bsky.social doesn't mean any of it.
Because if he was writing a thread he believed in, there is no way he would lead with the single-peaked MVT rather than the single-crossing MVT.
Reposted by Ethan Bueno de Mesquita
Scott Ashworth
@soashworth.bsky.social
· Aug 21
I’m unhappy with the wikipedia article on the median voter theorem.
I would be disappointed if you did...
Suppose, for the sake of argument, that all CS majors were 1st gen and all art history majors were from well-connected families.
Even if CS actually provides better job opportunities,we'd observe CS majors having worse job outcomes, despite the causal effect going the opposite direction.
Even if CS actually provides better job opportunities,we'd observe CS majors having worse job outcomes, despite the causal effect going the opposite direction.
That seems likely to be true.
But my point is, you cannot even tell the sign of the effect, let alone its magnitude, from this sort of evidence.
But my point is, you cannot even tell the sign of the effect, let alone its magnitude, from this sort of evidence.
I see a lot of folks posting about that NYTimes article. So I'm just going to say something I know you all already know, but is important.
You cannot infer the effect on unemployment of majoring in one topic vs another by comparing the unemployment rates of folks who chose those majors.
You cannot infer the effect on unemployment of majoring in one topic vs another by comparing the unemployment rates of folks who chose those majors.
Just for the record, this difference is definitely not an unbiased estimate of the causal effect of changing from art history to a computer engineering major on unemployment.,
Andalusian Gazpacho Recipe
This gazpacho recipe calls for salting and draining the vegetables and then freezing them, which helps extract flavorful juices from their cellular structure.
www.seriouseats.com
It is that time of year again.
This is the world's most perfect gazpacho recipe.
It has a few more steps than other gazpacho recipes.
But it is 1000 times more delicious.
You are welcome.
www.seriouseats.com/andalusian-g...
This is the world's most perfect gazpacho recipe.
It has a few more steps than other gazpacho recipes.
But it is 1000 times more delicious.
You are welcome.
www.seriouseats.com/andalusian-g...
Our producer cut the part where I said that the clearest way of saying what I think is that I think what Ian Hacking says.
You can definitely spray your kid.
So your kid exists.
You can definitely spray your kid.
So your kid exists.
Do We Understand Members Of The Other Party?
Podcast Episode · Not Another Politics Podcast · 08/07/2025 · 54m
podcasts.apple.com
This was a fun episode of Not Another Politics Podcast with Adam Mastriani.
Plus the last 8 minutes or so include a short rant (mostly from me) on philosophy of science, so the professionals should feel free to laugh at me.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/d...
Plus the last 8 minutes or so include a short rant (mostly from me) on philosophy of science, so the professionals should feel free to laugh at me.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/d...
Come to think of it, there's a genre here:
"I'm a nearly 60 year old columnist for the paper of record and I've just discovered..."
"...Springsteen, and did you know that he's quite an evocative lyricist?"
and
"...Augustine, and did you know that he's really quite spiritually deep?"
"I'm a nearly 60 year old columnist for the paper of record and I've just discovered..."
"...Springsteen, and did you know that he's quite an evocative lyricist?"
and
"...Augustine, and did you know that he's really quite spiritually deep?"
Breaking news from the NYTimes opinion page:
Did you people know that this Bruce Springsteen seems to be quite a gifted lyricist?
Did you people know that this Bruce Springsteen seems to be quite a gifted lyricist?
Human judgement remains central to the launch of nuclear weapons. But experts say it’s a matter of when, not if, artificial intelligence will get baked into the world’s most dangerous systems. www.wired.com/story/nuclea...
Nuclear Experts Say Mixing AI and Nuclear Weapons Is Inevitable
Human judgement remains central to the launch of nuclear weapons. But experts say it’s a matter of when, not if, artificial intelligence will get baked into the world’s most dangerous systems.
www.wired.com
I asked AI whether this was safe and it reassured me by pointing out that an important paper by Fearon and Powell (1979) proves that AI-driven nuclear command and control with a human on the loop guarantees lower risk of nuclear war in equilibrium.
I've been trying to come up with a rationalist explanation for your reading a column by Ross Douthat but can only conclude that it was the hand of god.
Reposted by Steve Peers, Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, Annette Yoshiko Reed
WIRED
@wired.com
· Aug 6
Nuclear Experts Say Mixing AI and Nuclear Weapons Is Inevitable
Human judgement remains central to the launch of nuclear weapons. But experts say it’s a matter of when, not if, artificial intelligence will get baked into the world’s most dangerous systems.
www.wired.com
Human judgement remains central to the launch of nuclear weapons. But experts say it’s a matter of when, not if, artificial intelligence will get baked into the world’s most dangerous systems. www.wired.com/story/nuclea...
Two thoughts.
First, I don't like those Updike novels at all.
Second, given where this post ended, Tony Judt's Postwar is magnificent and well worth your time.
First, I don't like those Updike novels at all.
Second, given where this post ended, Tony Judt's Postwar is magnificent and well worth your time.
Given the number of books he still produces, I operate under the assumption that my dad does not devote much time to podcasts.
feeling grateful that my mother does not listen to my podcast
For the record, 20 years ago Scott was saying, "I can’t help but think our political science discourse would be better if everyone read Schervish in high school."