Tarnell Brown
@eccentricecon.com
1️⃣ Trump’s Treasury chief says he can’t bail out Bitcoin—and he’s right. My latest argues a TARP‑for‑tokens rescue is fantasy, not policy.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/no-trump-c...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/no-trump-c...
No, Trump Can’t Bail Out Bitcoin
Even in our Bizarro world, a TARP for tokens rescue is more fantasy than policy—and that’s exactly how the system is designed.
www.eccentricecon.com
February 7, 2026 at 4:57 PM
1️⃣ Trump’s Treasury chief says he can’t bail out Bitcoin—and he’s right. My latest argues a TARP‑for‑tokens rescue is fantasy, not policy.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/no-trump-c...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/no-trump-c...
1️⃣ I tried to ignore this, I really tried to stay out of this argument, but when the Speaker of the House starts catechizing the Pope on “biblical borders,” something has gone very wrong.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/when-the-h...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/when-the-h...
When the House Speaker Tried to Catechize the Pope
Mike Johnson's "biblical borders" theology meets Aquinas, Pope Leo XIV, and the ugly reality of American immigration enforcement
www.eccentricecon.com
February 5, 2026 at 11:35 PM
1️⃣ I tried to ignore this, I really tried to stay out of this argument, but when the Speaker of the House starts catechizing the Pope on “biblical borders,” something has gone very wrong.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/when-the-h...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/when-the-h...
1️⃣ BRICS isn’t “killing” the dollar; it’s hedging at the margins of a system still anchored in USD reserves, contracts, and commodities.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/brics-mira...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/brics-mira...
BRICS Mirage: Why Dollar Hegemony Endures, Trump’s Tariff Threats Miss the Point, and Attacking BRICS Backfires
BRICS de dollarization makes great television. As a real threat to U.S. monetary power, it’s mostly theater—and the loudest American response so far risks doing more damage than the problem it claims
www.eccentricecon.com
February 5, 2026 at 7:53 PM
1️⃣ BRICS isn’t “killing” the dollar; it’s hedging at the margins of a system still anchored in USD reserves, contracts, and commodities.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/brics-mira...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/brics-mira...
1️⃣ In this follow-up to “Argentina’s Libertarian Illusion,” I ask what Milei’s “libertarian experiment” has really normalized: disinflation, yes—but also entrenched poverty and a harder security state.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/argentinas...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/argentinas...
Argentina’s Libertarian Experiment: From Illusion to Entrenchment
How Trump’s bailout and a midterm victory converted Milei’s emergency program into a semi-permanent model—and what that says about libertarians willing to excuse it.
www.eccentricecon.com
February 4, 2026 at 5:34 PM
1️⃣ In this follow-up to “Argentina’s Libertarian Illusion,” I ask what Milei’s “libertarian experiment” has really normalized: disinflation, yes—but also entrenched poverty and a harder security state.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/argentinas...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/argentinas...
1️⃣ People leaving jail or prison with opioid use disorder can face a 100x higher risk of overdose death after release, and we already know how to prevent most of those deaths.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/the-quiet-...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/the-quiet-...
The Quiet Death Trap
How courts, jails, and housing providers keep killing people we already know how to save
www.eccentricecon.com
February 3, 2026 at 10:31 PM
1️⃣ People leaving jail or prison with opioid use disorder can face a 100x higher risk of overdose death after release, and we already know how to prevent most of those deaths.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/the-quiet-...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/the-quiet-...
Reposted by Tarnell Brown
My new @brennancenter.org article on Minnesota 10th Amendment case against Trump's ICE surge, why it deserves to prevail, and why court decision denying preliminary injunction doesn't necessarily mean final decision on merits will or should go same way: statecourtreport.org/our-work/ana...
Does the ICE Crackdown in Minnesota Violate the Tenth Amendment?
Although a federal judge declined to issue a preliminary injunction requested by Minnesota and the Twin Cities, the plaintiffs should still prevail on their claims that the federal government’s action...
statecourtreport.org
February 2, 2026 at 11:31 PM
My new @brennancenter.org article on Minnesota 10th Amendment case against Trump's ICE surge, why it deserves to prevail, and why court decision denying preliminary injunction doesn't necessarily mean final decision on merits will or should go same way: statecourtreport.org/our-work/ana...
1️⃣ Kevin Warsh isn’t “regime change” at the Fed so much as balance‑sheet fundamentalism plus political proximity. Classical liberals should be more worried about that combo than cheering the hawk cosplay.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/trumps-fed...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/trumps-fed...
Trump’s Fed Chameleon
Kevin Warsh’s shape‑shifting on interest rates and QE is bad news for anyone who wants a predictable, nonpartisan central bank anchored in classical liberal principles.
www.eccentricecon.com
February 2, 2026 at 2:36 AM
1️⃣ Kevin Warsh isn’t “regime change” at the Fed so much as balance‑sheet fundamentalism plus political proximity. Classical liberals should be more worried about that combo than cheering the hawk cosplay.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/trumps-fed...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/trumps-fed...
Think ICE should be abolished but are looking for an actionable roadmap? The whitepaper you can download on this post may have answers for you.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/ice-and-th...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/ice-and-th...
January 26, 2026 at 7:51 PM
Think ICE should be abolished but are looking for an actionable roadmap? The whitepaper you can download on this post may have answers for you.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/ice-and-th...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/ice-and-th...
1. New post: “ICE and the Plenary Power Problem” — on how a plenary-power loophole turned immigration enforcement into a domestic security exception zone that makes “Minnesota” outcomes predictable, not rare.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/ice-and-th...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/ice-and-th...
ICE and the Plenary Power Problem
Why an extralegal enforcement regime necessarily results in “Minnesota” outcomes
www.eccentricecon.com
January 25, 2026 at 10:36 PM
1. New post: “ICE and the Plenary Power Problem” — on how a plenary-power loophole turned immigration enforcement into a domestic security exception zone that makes “Minnesota” outcomes predictable, not rare.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/ice-and-th...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/ice-and-th...
Mass deportation is a labor‑market shock, not a free lunch. This new “Immigration Enforcement Feedback Audit” pairs with my EconLog piece “The Deportation Labor Shock” to show how crackdowns, E‑Verify, and visa caps quietly make the economy more brittle.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/the-immigr...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/the-immigr...
The Immigration Enforcement Feedback Audit
When border/enforcement policy replaces market signals—and how the costs surface.
www.eccentricecon.com
January 25, 2026 at 2:42 PM
Mass deportation is a labor‑market shock, not a free lunch. This new “Immigration Enforcement Feedback Audit” pairs with my EconLog piece “The Deportation Labor Shock” to show how crackdowns, E‑Verify, and visa caps quietly make the economy more brittle.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/the-immigr...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/the-immigr...
1. New post in response to Niall Ferguson’s “Trump won Davos” take at The Free Press.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/no-trump-d...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/no-trump-d...
No, Trump Did Not Win Davos
Niall Ferguson mistakes spectacle for statecraft
www.eccentricecon.com
January 24, 2026 at 6:50 PM
1. New post in response to Niall Ferguson’s “Trump won Davos” take at The Free Press.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/no-trump-d...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/no-trump-d...
Mass deportation isn’t a wage free lunch; it’s a negative labor‑supply shock
New Substack post with the receipts behind my @EconLog piece “The Deportation Labor Shock” — replication notes on deportations, wages, and who really bears the burden.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/replicatio...
New Substack post with the receipts behind my @EconLog piece “The Deportation Labor Shock” — replication notes on deportations, wages, and who really bears the burden.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/replicatio...
Replication Notes: Deportations, Wages, and the Hidden Incidence
Receipts, assumptions, and what would have to be true for "mass deportation helps workers" to be correct.
www.eccentricecon.com
January 23, 2026 at 7:08 PM
Mass deportation isn’t a wage free lunch; it’s a negative labor‑supply shock
New Substack post with the receipts behind my @EconLog piece “The Deportation Labor Shock” — replication notes on deportations, wages, and who really bears the burden.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/replicatio...
New Substack post with the receipts behind my @EconLog piece “The Deportation Labor Shock” — replication notes on deportations, wages, and who really bears the burden.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/replicatio...
1. Deporting 8.5–10.8 million workers would cut U.S. GDP an estimated 2.6–6.8%, a hit on par with the Great Recession.
www.econlib.org/econlog/the-...
www.econlib.org/econlog/the-...
The Deportation Labor Shock - Econlib
Mass deportation is often framed as a pro‑worker policy. Remove unauthorized immigrants, the argument goes, and native wages will rise as labor supply contracts. This logic is intuitive, politically p...
www.econlib.org
January 23, 2026 at 1:16 PM
1. Deporting 8.5–10.8 million workers would cut U.S. GDP an estimated 2.6–6.8%, a hit on par with the Great Recession.
www.econlib.org/econlog/the-...
www.econlib.org/econlog/the-...
1. New piece: “Visa Pauses Are the New Wall.” The State Dept’s freeze on immigrant visas from 75 countries is a paper wall that can cut nearly half of legal immigration flows.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/visa-pause...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/visa-pause...
Visa Pauses Are the New Wall
How America cuts legal immigration in the shadows—and why the macro costs show up later
www.eccentricecon.com
January 21, 2026 at 7:59 PM
1. New piece: “Visa Pauses Are the New Wall.” The State Dept’s freeze on immigrant visas from 75 countries is a paper wall that can cut nearly half of legal immigration flows.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/visa-pause...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/visa-pause...
I (semi)concurrently pounded out a companion for my Fairness Trilemma. It was written for law journals, arguing that civil rights law already legally deals with this impossibility in markets such as housing.
Being as I am not a lawyer, it's probably pretty bad, but it's a first draft...
Being as I am not a lawyer, it's probably pretty bad, but it's a first draft...
Choosing Which Fairness to Relax: Algorithm Governance Under Civil Rights Law
Algorithmic decision systems in the world of housing and credit flow through long-standing racial fault lines when it comes to wealth and access. In another pap
papers.ssrn.com
January 21, 2026 at 2:39 PM
I (semi)concurrently pounded out a companion for my Fairness Trilemma. It was written for law journals, arguing that civil rights law already legally deals with this impossibility in markets such as housing.
Being as I am not a lawyer, it's probably pretty bad, but it's a first draft...
Being as I am not a lawyer, it's probably pretty bad, but it's a first draft...
1. New piece is up: Trump has now stapled 10–25% tariffs on eight NATO allies to his Greenland obsession—turning the trade system itself into a protection racket.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/the-greenland-grab-how-america-would
www.eccentricecon.com/p/the-greenland-grab-how-america-would
The Greenland Grab: How America Would Trade a Liberal Order for One Island
Washington's Greenland Gambit Would Break the Liberal Order It Claims to Defend
www.eccentricecon.com
January 18, 2026 at 5:58 PM
1. New piece is up: Trump has now stapled 10–25% tariffs on eight NATO allies to his Greenland obsession—turning the trade system itself into a protection racket.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/the-greenland-grab-how-america-would
www.eccentricecon.com/p/the-greenland-grab-how-america-would
1. In my latest post, I take apart “Great Replacement” rhetoric and show why, on its own terms, the economics don’t pencil out—on jobs, growth, or fiscal math.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/the-econom...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/the-econom...
The Economics of Paranoia: Why Great Replacement Theory Is Incoherent on Its Own Terms
A conspiracy dressed up as labor economics—and why the numbers never add up
www.eccentricecon.com
January 17, 2026 at 11:24 PM
1. In my latest post, I take apart “Great Replacement” rhetoric and show why, on its own terms, the economics don’t pencil out—on jobs, growth, or fiscal math.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/the-econom...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/the-econom...
It would be an understatement to say that I despise these people
January 12, 2026 at 11:54 PM
It would be an understatement to say that I despise these people
1. Central banks exist to say “no” when presidents most want “yes.” Letting Trump criminalize Powell for that refusal turns independence into a polite fiction.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/when-presi...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/when-presi...
When Presidents Control Money: Why the Trump–Powell Clash Threatens the Dollar and Global Markets
Central banks were made independent for a reason. Once criminal law becomes a tool to dictate interest rates, the U.S. stops having monetary policy in any meaningful sense.
www.eccentricecon.com
January 12, 2026 at 2:56 PM
1. Central banks exist to say “no” when presidents most want “yes.” Letting Trump criminalize Powell for that refusal turns independence into a polite fiction.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/when-presi...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/when-presi...
1. Immigration enforcement doesn’t “catch everyone”; it reprices behavior with fear, paperwork, and attrition.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/fear-paper...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/fear-paper...
Fear, Paperwork, and the Price of Discrimination
The hidden economics of immigration enforcement—and what it would take to flip the incentives.
www.eccentricecon.com
January 11, 2026 at 3:31 PM
1. Immigration enforcement doesn’t “catch everyone”; it reprices behavior with fear, paperwork, and attrition.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/fear-paper...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/fear-paper...
1. Classical liberalism was never pacifism; it was about taming power so law and markets could survive, not pretending power doesn’t matter in Ukraine.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/classical-...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/classical-...
Classical Liberalism at the Front Line
Why a tradition built on law, markets, and sovereignty cannot shrug at Russia’s war in Ukraine
www.eccentricecon.com
January 9, 2026 at 11:48 PM
1. Classical liberalism was never pacifism; it was about taming power so law and markets could survive, not pretending power doesn’t matter in Ukraine.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/classical-...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/classical-...
Sometimes one is tempted to say "to Hades with the analysis," and instead simply scream "THIS IS JUST FUCKING WRONG" into the void.
Then one takes a deep breath and explains the institutional incentives as one has a duty to do.
Then one takes a deep breath and explains the institutional incentives as one has a duty to do.
January 8, 2026 at 3:44 AM
Sometimes one is tempted to say "to Hades with the analysis," and instead simply scream "THIS IS JUST FUCKING WRONG" into the void.
Then one takes a deep breath and explains the institutional incentives as one has a duty to do.
Then one takes a deep breath and explains the institutional incentives as one has a duty to do.
Reposted by Tarnell Brown
Recent tragic events further strengthen the case for abolishing ICE. See my proposal for how to do it:
thehill.com/opinion/immi...
thehill.com/opinion/immi...
thehill.com
January 8, 2026 at 2:39 AM
Recent tragic events further strengthen the case for abolishing ICE. See my proposal for how to do it:
thehill.com/opinion/immi...
thehill.com/opinion/immi...
1. An ICE officer shot a woman in the head on a Minneapolis street. DHS calls it self‑defense. The mayor watched the video and called that story bullshit.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/the-americ...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/the-americ...
The American Gestapo Is a Budget Line
ICE calls it self‑defense. The incentives say otherwise.
www.eccentricecon.com
January 7, 2026 at 11:01 PM
1. An ICE officer shot a woman in the head on a Minneapolis street. DHS calls it self‑defense. The mayor watched the video and called that story bullshit.
www.eccentricecon.com/p/the-americ...
www.eccentricecon.com/p/the-americ...