Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 5h

That seems like an interesting one! Though I really don’t understand silver yet. got a small holding earlier this year but am unclear on the drivers.

1 1

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 5h

Interestingly, though China did that at some point, a much much smaller proportion of their population holds equities than the US (people tend to save in real estate or banks). So global markets getting impacted by trade policy is not as big a deal for them.

1

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 5h

I could totally see this admin using gov funds to prop up the market- though definitely challenging considering the size of US equities. It’s the type of thing they’d be able to try without their base being bothered.

1 1

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 5h

I imagine you still did pretty well. I got some last year but not nearly enough- need to load up on more. Central banks are not buying Bitcoin yet.

2 4

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 5h

It seems like it could just continue to rise at a steady pace for the next several years and end up there. I couldn’t believe that was possible just last year but then learned about central banks such as China buying continuously.

2 3

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 6h

Also bsky.app/profile/wsj....

The Wall Street Journal @wsj.com · 9h

Exclusive: More than three dozen organizations and individuals are expected to attend a dinner with Trump on Wednesday after opening their checkbooks to support a $250 million White House ballroom.

Trump Invites Ballroom Donors to Glitzy White House Dinner

The dinner is set to include representatives from Lockheed Martin, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Alphabet’s Google, Amazon and Palantir Technologies.

on.wsj.com

1 2

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 6h

I learned about this event more recently. It’s pretty fascinating.

2

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 6h

What’s your price target

2 1

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 6h

Make sense. I guess the important factor for them, no matter how they do it, is that it’s such an obvious vulnerability for Trump.

2

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 6h

Right. I think they are doing some of that. They have way less treasuries than 10 years ago and have way more gold and euros.

2

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 6h

Good times ahead www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Exclusive | Trump Team Plans IRS Overhaul to Enable Pursuit of Left-Leaning Groups

The effort would install at the IRS’s criminal unit an ally of President Trump who has drawn up a list of investigative targets.

www.wsj.com

2 6

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 6h

But wouldn’t this be a bit destabilizing for China itself as they hold so much US debt? So perhaps just hitting US equities (which impacts them way less) is a cleaner way to apply pressure?

2 1

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 6h

Can you imagine the conversations he has trying to convince his counterparts they should trust the US even though the guy in charge will impulsively override any cooperation they may have and Bessent will roll over and do nothing about it?

FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social · 6h

Japan finance minister Kato met US Treasury Secretary Bessent

1

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 6h

Last weeks pull back and Trump’s market hedging post right after seemed to illustrate this pretty clearly!

2

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 6h

In London thinking about how it’s sad it has lost a bit of its pull in finance and tech in recent years. It’s a fantastic city!

1

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 6h

Feel like this is the story of the entire year. We are cooked.

2

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 7h

This WSJ reporter is known for being very well sourced in China’s top leadership: “Beijing thinks it has found America’s Achilles’ heel: President Trump’s fixation on the stock market” www.wsj.com/world/china/...

China, Betting It Can Win a Trade War, Is Playing Hardball With Trump

Chinese leader Xi Jinping thinks the president will fold before launching new tariffs that would roil markets.

www.wsj.com

2 6

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 3d

Crazy to remember that Quantum Leap predicted smart phones and LLMs in like 1989.

1

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 6d

It’s all a culture war. Milei is on the right team so he gets government money.

2

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 6d

Gold and silver rally is a bit concerning. I got some decent exposure to this but it seems like a bit of an ominous signal.

1

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 7d

100%. And I would not remotely be surprised if she is successful. I should bet on it on Kalshi

1

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 7d

It really is.. she is like “hey guys let’s talk about how I’m actually innocent AMA”

1 2

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 7d

Unfortunately I relapsed and spent a little time on X. It’s crazy over there. Elizabeth Holmes is posting from prison and is a Trump supporter?

How do other people prevent themselves from relapse? It’s an awful shitshow but a car wreck I have a hard time looking away from.

1 1

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 9d

AMD ceo believes we are not thinking big enough about AI

1 4

Tailrisk Bill @dub.bsky.social · 23d

Idk if this is bullish or bearish for Nvidia. But it seems like Sam Altman is really a talented salesman. www.wsj.com/tech/nvidia-...

Nvidia to Invest Up to $100 Billion in OpenAI

The companies say the partnership will enable OpenAI to build and deploy at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems for its artificial intelligence data centers to train and run its next generation of mo...

www.wsj.com

1