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Brad DeLong

@delong.social

20K followers 1.3K following 1.6K posts

Author of "Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the 20th Century". Too online since 1995. Sometime Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury. UC Berkeley Professor.

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · Dec 2

< braddelong.substack.com >
< delong.typepad.com >
< delong.social >
< econ.berkeley.edu/profile/brad... >
[email protected] :: +1-925-708-0467

J. Bradford DeLong
Holgate House
2828 Webster St.
Berkeley, CA 94705

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality | Substack

Economic history, economics, political economy, finance, & forecasting. Here to try to make you (and me) smarter in a world with many increasingly deep & complicated troubles... Click to read Brad DeL...

braddelong.substack.com

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 7h

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 16h

"All That Is Solid Melts into Air": Since 1870, Roughly One-Fifth of the Economy Is Transformed Every Thirty Years
This time, we experts in the liberal arts—the artes liberales, the skills appropriate to enrich the lives and make productive those of us who…
braddelong.substack.com/p/all-that-i...

"All That Is Solid Melts into Air": Since 1870, Roughly One-Fifth of the Economy Is Transformed Every Thirty Years

This time, we experts in the liberal arts—the artes liberales, the skills appropriate to enrich the lives and make productive those of us who are free and must find a way to live by our wits, as we...

braddelong.substack.com

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 22h

Beyond the SmartPhone? Or an Actually Functional Siri without a Screen?: The Altman–Ive Ambition Is Going to Meet Physics, Compute, & Etiquette
I smell a “welcome to the NFL” moment coming for this piece of OpenAI’s ambitions. But I also know that it is much…
braddelong.substack.com/p/beyond-the...

Beyond the SmartPhone? Or an Actually Functional Siri without a Screen?: The Altman–Ive Ambition Is Going to Meet Physics, Compute, & Etiquette.

I smell a “welcome to the NFL” moment coming for this piece of OpenAI’s ambitions. But I also know that it is much too early and information is still much too thin for speculation to be worthwhile...

braddelong.substack.com

Brad DeLong @delong.social · 1d

Steady Data, Shaky Narratives: Why Poll Hype Misleads & Slow Drift Rules in Understanding "Public Opinion"
G. Elliott Morris deservedly trashes the once-reliable Harry Enten for feeding the ad-supported eyeball-gluing misinformation beast. & it leads me to…
braddelong.substack.com/p/steady-dat...

https://braddelong.substack.com/p/steady-data-shaky-narratives-why>

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 3d

Might We Replace Our Ten Year-Old Prius with a Chevy Bolt Next Year?
If continued battery-cost savings are passed on to purchasers, fast charging blooms, rules tighten, and EV tax credits emerge that provide preference for EVs over PHEVs, then the Bolt wins…
braddelong.substack.com/p/might-we-r...

Might We Replace Our Ten Year-Old Prius with a Chevy Bolt Next Year?

If continued battery-cost savings are passed on to purchasers, fast charging blooms, rules tighten, and EV tax credits emerge that provide preference for EVs over PHEVs, then the Bolt wins; if not...

braddelong.substack.com

1 1 8

Brad DeLong @delong.social · 3d

The Chaos Monkeys: Flying Down to Buenos Aires
Yes. They are going ahead with draining the Exchange Stabilization Fund of its dollar liquidity for purposes that seem to make more sense. &, since this is TrumpWorld, the odds are heavily in favor of the right…
braddelong.substack.com/p/the-chaos-...

The Chaos Monkeys: Flying Down to Buenos Aires

Yes. They are going ahead with draining the Exchange Stabilization Fund of its dollar liquidity for purposes that seem to make more sense. &, since this is TrumpWorld, the odds are heavily in favor...

braddelong.substack.com

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 4d

Am I Biting Off More than I Can Chew Here?
À propos of figuring out how to enable students to enrich their lives and provide value to their employers, as they live as free people do, by their wits, in having lives and careers as good front-end nodes to and…
braddelong.substack.com/p/am-i-bitin...

Am I Biting Off More than I Can Chew Here?

À propos of figuring out how to enable students to enrich their lives and provide value to their employers, as they live as free people do, by their wits, in having lives and careers as good front-...

braddelong.substack.com

Brad DeLong @delong.social · 5d

...A contrarian take on exposition
< nealstephenson.substack.com/cp/175641716 >
2025-10-07 We 3/END

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 5d

...and running a Sub-Turing instantiation of the author on one's own wetware to converse with. That is perhaps the most important piece of learning to read, and of becoming a front-end node to the real ASI that is humanity's collective mind:
CROSSPOST: NEAL STEPHENSON: Say it, don't show it... 2/

Say it, don't show it

A contrarian take on exposition

nealstephenson.substack.com

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 5d

Neal Stephenson tells us: Dickens could do in 15 words what "show it, don't tell it" would need 15 sentences of paragraphs to accomplish. It works for a reader willing to do the work of coöperating with the author in the construction of the fictional world portrayed—which requires spinning-up... 1/

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 5d

For a Normal U.S. Government to Shoulder "Credit Risk" Can Be Fine. But This Is Not a Normal U.S. Government, Is It?
Chaos monkeys promising unconditional U.S. financial support for unsustainable Argentinian economic policies is a royal road to disaster…
braddelong.substack.com/p/for-a-norm...

https://braddelong.substack.com/p/for-a-normal-us-government-to-shoulder>

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 6d

On Peter Thiel's AntiChrist
“Restrainer” Politics: Billionaire TechBro Peter Thiel, Nazi Political Philosopher-Theologian Carl Schmitt, Pacifist Christians René Girard & Wolfgang Palaver, the AntiChrist & his enemies, & J.D. Vance & the scapegoating of the…
braddelong.substack.com/p/on-peter-t...

On Peter Thiel's AntiChrist

“Restrainer” Politics: Billionaire TechBro Peter Thiel, Nazi Political Philosopher-Theologian Carl Schmitt, Pacifist Christians René Girard & Wolfgang Palaver, the AntiChrist & his enemies, & J.D...

braddelong.substack.com

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 6d

What Happened with Elon Musk & the "CyberTruck", Anyway?

EV freedom vs. bunker aesthetics: how the Cybertruck squandered the skateboard, and misfired as its stainless shell met actual materials-science physics. A bold silhouette, a brittle reality: the…

braddelong.substack.com/p/what-happe...

What Happened with Elon Musk & the "CyberTruck", Anyway?

EV freedom vs. bunker aesthetics: how the Cybertruck squandered the skateboard, and misfired as its stainless shell met actual materials-science physics. A bold silhouette, a brittle reality: the...

braddelong.substack.com

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 7d

Does replying count as participating? - B.

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 8d

How Many Magics to Human Prosperity & Progress?
Call off the cults and the funerals. “AI”’s real advance is high‑dimensional prediction that generalizes without interpretable laws. That’s operational power, not Turing-Class cognition. Noah Smith says: Think…
braddelong.substack.com/p/how-many-m...

How Many Magics to Human Prosperity & Progress?

Call off the cults and the funerals. “AI”’s real advance is high‑dimensional prediction that generalizes without interpretable laws. That’s operational power, not Turing-Class cognition. Noah Smith...

braddelong.substack.com

Brad DeLong @delong.social · 8d

The Ongoing Trumpist Unmaking of U.S. Network Power: Tariffs, Ambivalence, & the Slow Isolation & Hence Decline
Yes, Henry Luce’s “American Century” is now over. Any further questions? Tariffs tax deterrence; & policy volatility prices U.S. reliability of…
braddelong.substack.com/p/the-ongoin...

The Ongoing Trumpist Unmaking of U.S. Network Power: Tariffs, Ambivalence, & the Slow Isolation & Hence Decline

Yes, Henry Luce’s “American Century” is now over. Any further questions? Tariffs tax deterrence; & policy volatility prices U.S. reliability out of potential allies’ long-run planning along both...

braddelong.substack.com

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 8d

READING: Henry Luce (1941): The American Century
Luce’s manifesto and the world order that it… signposted…

2025-10-05 Su
#reading-henry-luce-1941-the-american-century

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 9d

Cf. James Scott, "Seeing Like a State"...

Thanks much. Be as well as one can be in a world in which while one may well be, personally, quite comfortable, we live in a world in which no man is an island. Yours,

J. Bradford DeLong
<http://braddelong.substack.com>

Brad DeLong @delong.social · 9d

Yes indeed. History rhyming with the "interwar" period is not a great thing...

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 10d

Abstraction Layers: In Arithmetic & Elsewhere
Counting to 84 by offshoring much of the real work to your information-technology ASI arabic-numeral symbolic copilot, and other topics about variation in proper education for the kind of numeroliteracy…
braddelong.substack.com/p/abstractio...

Abstraction Layers: In Arithmetic & Elsewhere

Counting to 84 by offshoring much of the real work to your information-technology ASI arabic-numeral symbolic copilot, and other topics about variation in proper education for the kind of...

braddelong.substack.com

1 3

Brad DeLong @delong.social · 10d

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: Why Gillian Tett's Anthropological Take on the World Is Very Useful
Why you should listen to her; a N2PE event from 2021-11-18 Th…
<https://braddelong.substack.com/p/hoisted-from-the-archives-why-gillian>
2025-10-03 Fr

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 10d

Notes on the Berkeley "The AI Con" Book Launch Event
2025-10-02 16:00 PDT (Th): 470 Stephens Hall: Alex Hanna, Timnit Gebru, Khari Johnson, & Tamara Kneese. 2025. “The AI Con Book Roundtable”…
<https://braddelong.substack.com/p/notes-on-the-berkeley-the-ai-con>
2025-10-03 Fr

Brad DeLong @delong.social · 11d

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: The Music to the Zombie Dance of Human Society Changes Its Key...
From 2.5 years ago. Time to start thinking about this, again, and about what I would change, and will change as versions of this go into both What Rough Beast &...
braddelong.substack.com/p/hoisted-fr...

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: The Music to the Zombie Dance of Human Society Changes Its Key...

From 2.5 years ago. Time to start thinking about this, again, and about what I would change, and will change as versions of this go into both What Rough Beast & Enlarging the Scope of Human Empire. Al

braddelong.substack.com

Brad DeLong @delong.social · 12d

No. There Are No Even Half-Competent Chaos Monkeys in the Trump Administration. Any Questions?
Bessent needs to go. And quickly. Dan Drezner said last week that one good thing that could be said about Scott Bessent was that he was 10% less crazy than the…
braddelong.substack.com/p/no-there-a...

No. There Are No Even Half-Competent Chaos Monkeys in the Trump Administration. Any Questions?

Bessent needs to go. And quickly. Dan Drezner said last week that one good thing that could be said about Scott Bessent was that he was 10% less crazy than the other Trumpist chaos monkeys...

braddelong.substack.com

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 12d

I said that!