David R. Kotok
@davidkotok.bsky.social
Co-Founder & Strategic Advisor at Cumberland Advisors ▫ Economist ▫ Fisherman ▫ Investor ▫ Author ▫ See my new book, "The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks" https://www.thefedandtheflu.com.
Crescent moon setting over Lido Key, FL.
November 26, 2025 at 3:29 AM
Crescent moon setting over Lido Key, FL.
The Coming ICE-Age Recession
: Incoming data shows the damage to the US economy from ICE and Border Patrol activities. Recent activity in Charlotte, NC, provides a case study. dkotok.substack.com/p/the-coming...
: Incoming data shows the damage to the US economy from ICE and Border Patrol activities. Recent activity in Charlotte, NC, provides a case study. dkotok.substack.com/p/the-coming...
The Coming ICE-Age Recession
Incoming data shows the damage to the US economy from ICE and Border Patrol activities. Recent activity in Charlotte, NC, provides a case study.
dkotok.substack.com
November 25, 2025 at 9:51 PM
The Coming ICE-Age Recession
: Incoming data shows the damage to the US economy from ICE and Border Patrol activities. Recent activity in Charlotte, NC, provides a case study. dkotok.substack.com/p/the-coming...
: Incoming data shows the damage to the US economy from ICE and Border Patrol activities. Recent activity in Charlotte, NC, provides a case study. dkotok.substack.com/p/the-coming...
Our proposal is prepared in an outline form with citations and references. It is not a thoroughgoing, detailed study. It is a start for talking points. Whether anything happens depends on politicians, and that in itself makes any proposal problematic.
substack.com/inbox/post/1...
substack.com/inbox/post/1...
Proposed: A National Grid Modernization and Resilience Act (NGMRA)
As a starting point for discussion, I outline a proposal to fund the replacement and expansion of the US electrical grid without the federal government’s adding to the debt.
substack.com
November 25, 2025 at 9:48 PM
Our proposal is prepared in an outline form with citations and references. It is not a thoroughgoing, detailed study. It is a start for talking points. Whether anything happens depends on politicians, and that in itself makes any proposal problematic.
substack.com/inbox/post/1...
substack.com/inbox/post/1...
Proposed: A National Grid Modernization and Resilience Act (NGMRA)
As a starting point for discussion, I outline a proposal to fund the replacement and expansion of the US electrical grid without the federal government’s adding to the debt.
dkotok.substack.com/p/proposed-a...
As a starting point for discussion, I outline a proposal to fund the replacement and expansion of the US electrical grid without the federal government’s adding to the debt.
dkotok.substack.com/p/proposed-a...
Proposed: A National Grid Modernization and Resilience Act (NGMRA)
As a starting point for discussion, I outline a proposal to fund the replacement and expansion of the US electrical grid without the federal government’s adding to the debt.
dkotok.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Proposed: A National Grid Modernization and Resilience Act (NGMRA)
As a starting point for discussion, I outline a proposal to fund the replacement and expansion of the US electrical grid without the federal government’s adding to the debt.
dkotok.substack.com/p/proposed-a...
As a starting point for discussion, I outline a proposal to fund the replacement and expansion of the US electrical grid without the federal government’s adding to the debt.
dkotok.substack.com/p/proposed-a...
The Fed and the Flu examines the Fed’s journey, insights from history, lessons from the world’s experience with COVID, and the pandemic’s economic impacts captured in charts. Every pandemic delivers an initial shock, but it also casts a longer shadow over the medium term.
The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks | How pandemics affect the economy
The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks examines the economic impacts of pandemics across history and the response of the US Federal Reserve to COVID-19.
www.thefedandtheflu.com
November 22, 2025 at 12:00 PM
The Fed and the Flu examines the Fed’s journey, insights from history, lessons from the world’s experience with COVID, and the pandemic’s economic impacts captured in charts. Every pandemic delivers an initial shock, but it also casts a longer shadow over the medium term.
Excerpts from today's "A step-by-step guide to the AI bubble. Is it bursting?" by Rick Newman
www.thepinpointpress.com/p/a-step-by-...
David Kotok says we will have applications that will be extraordinary, & worthy of investment. Right now, we just aren’t sure which ones, or how long it will take.
www.thepinpointpress.com/p/a-step-by-...
David Kotok says we will have applications that will be extraordinary, & worthy of investment. Right now, we just aren’t sure which ones, or how long it will take.
A step-by-step guide to the AI bubble
Is it bursting? Here's how to tell, and what to do about it
www.thepinpointpress.com
November 21, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Excerpts from today's "A step-by-step guide to the AI bubble. Is it bursting?" by Rick Newman
www.thepinpointpress.com/p/a-step-by-...
David Kotok says we will have applications that will be extraordinary, & worthy of investment. Right now, we just aren’t sure which ones, or how long it will take.
www.thepinpointpress.com/p/a-step-by-...
David Kotok says we will have applications that will be extraordinary, & worthy of investment. Right now, we just aren’t sure which ones, or how long it will take.
The male largemouth bass migrate into Lake Okeechobee and start the process of building nests along the fronts of the weed beds. You can see the marks on their bellies from their actions of moving/scraping the bottom around. After a few weeks the females arrive.
dkotok.substack.com/p/a-florida-...
dkotok.substack.com/p/a-florida-...
November 17, 2025 at 1:15 PM
The male largemouth bass migrate into Lake Okeechobee and start the process of building nests along the fronts of the weed beds. You can see the marks on their bellies from their actions of moving/scraping the bottom around. After a few weeks the females arrive.
dkotok.substack.com/p/a-florida-...
dkotok.substack.com/p/a-florida-...
The “why” of Florida’s slowdown is difficult. The debate is intensely political.
“We don’t have Canadians coming anymore,” said a Sarasota restaurateur. Her lunches and ambiance haven’t changed. Her politics have completely reversed. “Trump killed my business.” dkotok.substack.com/p/a-florida-...
“We don’t have Canadians coming anymore,” said a Sarasota restaurateur. Her lunches and ambiance haven’t changed. Her politics have completely reversed. “Trump killed my business.” dkotok.substack.com/p/a-florida-...
A Florida Report: Economy, Food, and Fishing
We tackle the sobering subject of Florida’s economy before turning to lighter fare — a review of Sarasota’s Don Luigi Restaurant for locals and visitors and a fishing report.
dkotok.substack.com
November 16, 2025 at 9:01 PM
The “why” of Florida’s slowdown is difficult. The debate is intensely political.
“We don’t have Canadians coming anymore,” said a Sarasota restaurateur. Her lunches and ambiance haven’t changed. Her politics have completely reversed. “Trump killed my business.” dkotok.substack.com/p/a-florida-...
“We don’t have Canadians coming anymore,” said a Sarasota restaurateur. Her lunches and ambiance haven’t changed. Her politics have completely reversed. “Trump killed my business.” dkotok.substack.com/p/a-florida-...
A Florida Report: Economy, Food, and Fishing
Our optimism about Florida’s economic outlook is waning. In my opinion, Florida is weakening economically, and the positive outlook is fading. We will provide some evidence and leave the rest to readers.
dkotok.substack.com/p/a-florida-...
Our optimism about Florida’s economic outlook is waning. In my opinion, Florida is weakening economically, and the positive outlook is fading. We will provide some evidence and leave the rest to readers.
dkotok.substack.com/p/a-florida-...
A Florida Report: Economy, Food, and Fishing
We tackle the sobering subject of Florida’s economy before turning to lighter fare — a review of Sarasota’s Don Luigi Restaurant for locals and visitors and a fishing report.
dkotok.substack.com
November 16, 2025 at 6:15 PM
A Florida Report: Economy, Food, and Fishing
Our optimism about Florida’s economic outlook is waning. In my opinion, Florida is weakening economically, and the positive outlook is fading. We will provide some evidence and leave the rest to readers.
dkotok.substack.com/p/a-florida-...
Our optimism about Florida’s economic outlook is waning. In my opinion, Florida is weakening economically, and the positive outlook is fading. We will provide some evidence and leave the rest to readers.
dkotok.substack.com/p/a-florida-...
The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks | How pandemics affect the economy.
I have been intrigued by the impacts of epidemics and pandemics for more than a half century. My journey began in 1966 when, as a second lieutenant in the US Army. www.thefedandtheflu.com
I have been intrigued by the impacts of epidemics and pandemics for more than a half century. My journey began in 1966 when, as a second lieutenant in the US Army. www.thefedandtheflu.com
The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks | How pandemics affect the economy
The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks examines the economic impacts of pandemics across history and the response of the US Federal Reserve to COVID-19.
www.thefedandtheflu.com
November 15, 2025 at 1:45 PM
The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks | How pandemics affect the economy.
I have been intrigued by the impacts of epidemics and pandemics for more than a half century. My journey began in 1966 when, as a second lieutenant in the US Army. www.thefedandtheflu.com
I have been intrigued by the impacts of epidemics and pandemics for more than a half century. My journey began in 1966 when, as a second lieutenant in the US Army. www.thefedandtheflu.com
"Persistence & Rotation" - Cumberland Advisors’ Friday, November 14, 2025 Week in Review update on market conditions, equities & bonds with Matt C. McAleerand Shaun Burgess is now available: www.youtube.com/watch?v=scqu... #Markets
"Persistence & Rotation" - Week in Review
Dear Clients & Friends,
Thank you for watching Cumberland Advisors’ Friday, November 14, 2025 Week in Review, our end-of-week update on market conditions, equities & bonds with Matt C. McAleer,…
www.youtube.com
November 14, 2025 at 11:33 PM
"Persistence & Rotation" - Cumberland Advisors’ Friday, November 14, 2025 Week in Review update on market conditions, equities & bonds with Matt C. McAleerand Shaun Burgess is now available: www.youtube.com/watch?v=scqu... #Markets
When President Trump took office in 2017, Republican expectations doubled, to 120, from October 2016’s level, Democratic expectations fell forty points to 55, while Independent assessments of the future rose sixteen points to 89. dkotok.substack.com/p/a-closer-l...
A Closer Look at University of Michigan Survey Data
TLR on the Economy helps us to answer a question about the well-known data series from the University of Michigan.
dkotok.substack.com
November 13, 2025 at 7:55 PM
When President Trump took office in 2017, Republican expectations doubled, to 120, from October 2016’s level, Democratic expectations fell forty points to 55, while Independent assessments of the future rose sixteen points to 89. dkotok.substack.com/p/a-closer-l...
UMich Sentiment Survey — More Details
Re-interviews in 2025 reveal that about 20% of consumers are changing their self-reported political affiliation between interviews, consistent with findings from other major national surveys.
dkotok.substack.com/p/umich-sent...
Re-interviews in 2025 reveal that about 20% of consumers are changing their self-reported political affiliation between interviews, consistent with findings from other major national surveys.
dkotok.substack.com/p/umich-sent...
UMich Sentiment Survey — More Details
Long-time friends with decades of economic skills sent an additional observation about Tuesday’s commentary, and TLRWire has a follow-up discussion of the UMich Survey.
dkotok.substack.com
November 13, 2025 at 7:14 PM
UMich Sentiment Survey — More Details
Re-interviews in 2025 reveal that about 20% of consumers are changing their self-reported political affiliation between interviews, consistent with findings from other major national surveys.
dkotok.substack.com/p/umich-sent...
Re-interviews in 2025 reveal that about 20% of consumers are changing their self-reported political affiliation between interviews, consistent with findings from other major national surveys.
dkotok.substack.com/p/umich-sent...
Thank you, Callie, for the nice mention.
Callie Cox: A Student Teacher of Financial Markets
www.morningstar.com/personal-fin...
Callie Cox: A Student Teacher of Financial Markets
www.morningstar.com/personal-fin...
November 13, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Thank you, Callie, for the nice mention.
Callie Cox: A Student Teacher of Financial Markets
www.morningstar.com/personal-fin...
Callie Cox: A Student Teacher of Financial Markets
www.morningstar.com/personal-fin...
Closer Look at U of Michigan Survey
In early 2022, Richard Curtin wrote that partisan views are, “unfortunately,” completely dominating “rational assessments of ongoing economic trends,” which is encouraging “poor decisions by consumers and policy makers alike.”
dkotok.substack.com/p/a-closer-l...
In early 2022, Richard Curtin wrote that partisan views are, “unfortunately,” completely dominating “rational assessments of ongoing economic trends,” which is encouraging “poor decisions by consumers and policy makers alike.”
dkotok.substack.com/p/a-closer-l...
A Closer Look at University of Michigan Survey Data
TLR on the Economy helps us to answer a question about the well-known data series from the University of Michigan.
dkotok.substack.com
November 12, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Closer Look at U of Michigan Survey
In early 2022, Richard Curtin wrote that partisan views are, “unfortunately,” completely dominating “rational assessments of ongoing economic trends,” which is encouraging “poor decisions by consumers and policy makers alike.”
dkotok.substack.com/p/a-closer-l...
In early 2022, Richard Curtin wrote that partisan views are, “unfortunately,” completely dominating “rational assessments of ongoing economic trends,” which is encouraging “poor decisions by consumers and policy makers alike.”
dkotok.substack.com/p/a-closer-l...
Voices of Resilience: American & Ukrainian Veterans Panel Discussion at Camp Kotok 2025
NPLB Outdoors' purpose is to help rehabilitation of America veterans who are amputees. It is I personally know its CEO and support the organization with philanthropy. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ad7Q...
NPLB Outdoors' purpose is to help rehabilitation of America veterans who are amputees. It is I personally know its CEO and support the organization with philanthropy. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ad7Q...
Voices of Resilience: American & Ukrainian Veterans Panel Discussion at Camp Kotok 2025
At Camp Kotok 2025, a remarkable panel brought together U.S. combat veterans and Ukrainian soldiers to share powerful, first-hand accounts of war, survival, and recovery. Moderated by *Peter…
www.youtube.com
November 12, 2025 at 2:55 AM
Voices of Resilience: American & Ukrainian Veterans Panel Discussion at Camp Kotok 2025
NPLB Outdoors' purpose is to help rehabilitation of America veterans who are amputees. It is I personally know its CEO and support the organization with philanthropy. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ad7Q...
NPLB Outdoors' purpose is to help rehabilitation of America veterans who are amputees. It is I personally know its CEO and support the organization with philanthropy. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ad7Q...
The educational website History and Headlines has shared an animated map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine up through September 2025. To see the war map change day by day takes about 12 minutes and reinforces Allan Mestel’s point: Russia is not winning.
dkotok.substack.com/p/20-days-in...
dkotok.substack.com/p/20-days-in...
20 Days in Mariupol: Truth, Denial, and the Battle Over Narrative
I offer thoughts after seeing this documentary film with a gathering of about 100 people. Readers may freely share this commentary with others.
dkotok.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 1:45 PM
The educational website History and Headlines has shared an animated map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine up through September 2025. To see the war map change day by day takes about 12 minutes and reinforces Allan Mestel’s point: Russia is not winning.
dkotok.substack.com/p/20-days-in...
dkotok.substack.com/p/20-days-in...
"People against tariffs are fools," says President Trump as he floats $2,000 rebate checks
In an interview with OAN on October 1, Trump said. “We’re thinking maybe $1,000 to $2,000 — it would be great.”
For context: Layering rebate checks on top of tariffs “is a very serious risk,”...
In an interview with OAN on October 1, Trump said. “We’re thinking maybe $1,000 to $2,000 — it would be great.”
For context: Layering rebate checks on top of tariffs “is a very serious risk,”...
Live updates: Senate breaks Democratic filibuster in key vote toward reopening the government | CNN Politics
The Senate voted 60-40 on Sunday on a key step toward reopening the government. Follow here for the latest.
edition.cnn.com
November 10, 2025 at 7:55 PM
"People against tariffs are fools," says President Trump as he floats $2,000 rebate checks
In an interview with OAN on October 1, Trump said. “We’re thinking maybe $1,000 to $2,000 — it would be great.”
For context: Layering rebate checks on top of tariffs “is a very serious risk,”...
In an interview with OAN on October 1, Trump said. “We’re thinking maybe $1,000 to $2,000 — it would be great.”
For context: Layering rebate checks on top of tariffs “is a very serious risk,”...
Fed Independence Project - Part 5: Robert Eisenbeis served under every Fed chair w/ the exception of one, from G. William Miller all the way through Janet Yellen & he addresses many topics surrounding Chair Powell & the current challenge to independence.
kathleenhays.substack.com/p/central-ba...
kathleenhays.substack.com/p/central-ba...
Central Bank Central Fed Independence Project - Part 5: Robert Eisenbeis
Former Atlanta Fed Research Director Explains How Powell Could Stay on as Fed Board Member, Become Chair of FOMC, Go Down in History as Fed Independence Savior
kathleenhays.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Fed Independence Project - Part 5: Robert Eisenbeis served under every Fed chair w/ the exception of one, from G. William Miller all the way through Janet Yellen & he addresses many topics surrounding Chair Powell & the current challenge to independence.
kathleenhays.substack.com/p/central-ba...
kathleenhays.substack.com/p/central-ba...
Stephen Miran, member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, has dissented in two consecutive Fed FOMC meetings since his joining the Board in September 2025, preferring to cut by 50 basis points (0.50%) instead of 25 basis points (0.25%).
www.youtube.com/watch?v=nozW... #Inflation #TheFed
www.youtube.com/watch?v=nozW... #Inflation #TheFed
Fed Governor Miran Wants to Cut Interest Rates A Lot (Here’s Why)
Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: https://vaneck.com/REMXJack
Stephen Miran, member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, has dissented in two consecutive Fed…
www.youtube.com
November 9, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Stephen Miran, member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, has dissented in two consecutive Fed FOMC meetings since his joining the Board in September 2025, preferring to cut by 50 basis points (0.50%) instead of 25 basis points (0.25%).
www.youtube.com/watch?v=nozW... #Inflation #TheFed
www.youtube.com/watch?v=nozW... #Inflation #TheFed
Putin and his ilk manipulate media in the West while they are guilty of horrendous war crimes. I have heard of these crimes directly from Ukrainian eyewitnesses. Putin’s war of aggression is responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths and casualties.
dkotok.substack.com/p/20-days-in...
dkotok.substack.com/p/20-days-in...
November 9, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Putin and his ilk manipulate media in the West while they are guilty of horrendous war crimes. I have heard of these crimes directly from Ukrainian eyewitnesses. Putin’s war of aggression is responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths and casualties.
dkotok.substack.com/p/20-days-in...
dkotok.substack.com/p/20-days-in...
20 Days in Mariupol stands as a powerful counterpoint to propaganda and denial. Despite the film’s prominence, Russian media have ignored it. Their broader strategy of deflection and disinformation continues to shape perceptions.
dkotok.substack.com/p/20-days-in... #RussiaUkraineWar #Ukraine
dkotok.substack.com/p/20-days-in... #RussiaUkraineWar #Ukraine
20 Days in Mariupol: Truth, Denial, and the Battle Over Narrative
I offer thoughts after seeing this documentary film with a gathering of about 100 people. Readers may freely share this commentary with others.
dkotok.substack.com
November 9, 2025 at 3:00 PM
20 Days in Mariupol stands as a powerful counterpoint to propaganda and denial. Despite the film’s prominence, Russian media have ignored it. Their broader strategy of deflection and disinformation continues to shape perceptions.
dkotok.substack.com/p/20-days-in... #RussiaUkraineWar #Ukraine
dkotok.substack.com/p/20-days-in... #RussiaUkraineWar #Ukraine
In one chart you can see the places where the most damage from ICE is done to building and construction of all types.
I’m in Florida, and now see optimism about FL waning. This is one of the reasons why.
I’m in Florida, and now see optimism about FL waning. This is one of the reasons why.
November 8, 2025 at 9:02 PM
In one chart you can see the places where the most damage from ICE is done to building and construction of all types.
I’m in Florida, and now see optimism about FL waning. This is one of the reasons why.
I’m in Florida, and now see optimism about FL waning. This is one of the reasons why.
Argentina Again! kotokreport.com/argentina-ag...
There was enough pain to prompt Argentine citizens to demonstrate in the streets. I joined a demonstration, banged on a pot with a spoon and chanted “No al corralito,” which meant “Don’t put a fence around my money.” I added my voice.
There was enough pain to prompt Argentine citizens to demonstrate in the streets. I joined a demonstration, banged on a pot with a spoon and chanted “No al corralito,” which meant “Don’t put a fence around my money.” I added my voice.
Argentina Again!
Argentina has defaulted 6 times since 1951, is #7 in the works? Or will another default be avoided?
kotokreport.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Argentina Again! kotokreport.com/argentina-ag...
There was enough pain to prompt Argentine citizens to demonstrate in the streets. I joined a demonstration, banged on a pot with a spoon and chanted “No al corralito,” which meant “Don’t put a fence around my money.” I added my voice.
There was enough pain to prompt Argentine citizens to demonstrate in the streets. I joined a demonstration, banged on a pot with a spoon and chanted “No al corralito,” which meant “Don’t put a fence around my money.” I added my voice.
An intervention of $20 billion in another country’s financial distress is unusual. Only three examples of such occur in the last three decades. The effect is a risk if they don't pay back. We get pesos. What will the pesos be worth when and if the swap is reversed? kotokreport.com/argentina-ag...
Foreign Exchange Operations - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
At the New York Fed, our mission is to make the U.S. economy stronger and the financial system more stable for all segments of society. We do this by executing monetary policy, providing financial…
www.newyorkfed.org
November 6, 2025 at 8:33 PM
An intervention of $20 billion in another country’s financial distress is unusual. Only three examples of such occur in the last three decades. The effect is a risk if they don't pay back. We get pesos. What will the pesos be worth when and if the swap is reversed? kotokreport.com/argentina-ag...