CrimRxiv
banner
crimrxiv.com
CrimRxiv
@crimrxiv.com
crimrxiv.com is criminology's global open access hub & repository. Home @ University of Manchester. Powered by Knowledge Futures. Sustained by its Consortium.
Pinned
We're getting bigger. Now you can join CrimRxiv Consortium as an individual. Same price as what it costs to read and publish on CrimRxiv (which is zero). 🧡 Be an early member of the open-criminology movement.

app.joinit.com/o/crimconsor...
AI vs. Human Judges: Solving Sentencing Disparity with LLMs
This is an overview based on the article, "Evaluating Large Language Models as Judicial Decision-Makers" (https://doi.org/10.21428/cb6ab371.4933a431 ). We create these "Crimversations" with the AI tool Google NotebookLM. While we strive for accuracy, an overview may not perfectly reflect the original article, a limitation common to both AI-generated and human-led podcasts. For definitive information, please refer directly to the article. Stay tuned for the launch of our new sites, https://crimconsortium.com and https://crimhub.com. Intro: Can Artificial Intelligence fix the "lawlessness" and inconsistency found in criminal sentencing? This video breaks down a groundbreaking 2026 study published in Justice Quarterly that evaluates whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can serve as effective judicial decision-makers. What’s Inside: Researchers compared the sentencing decisions of 123 retired judges against three major AI models: GPT-4o, Gemini-2.0-Flash, and Claude-3.5-Sonnet. Using fictional cases involving violent assault and sexual offenses, the study tested whether AI could reduce sentencing disparity without losing accuracy. Key Findings Covered: • Inconsistency in Law: Historical data shows human judges often impose vastly different sentences for similar cases, a problem known as "noise". • AI Consistency: The study found that LLMs produced significantly lower sentence disparity than human judges, meaning they were more consistent in their rulings. • Accuracy: When using the average human sentence as a benchmark, AI models deviated less from the consensus than the judges themselves did. • Prompting Matters: The video explains how "Few-Shot" and "Chain-of-Thought" prompting strategies helped align AI decisions with judicial norms. Conclusion: While AI offers a promising tool to reduce unwarranted disparities, ethical questions regarding transparency, bias, and the "human element" of justice remain. Watch to understand the future of AI in the courtroom. Sources: Based on the paper "Evaluating Large Language Models as Judicial Decision-Makers" by Oren Gazal Ayal, Zohar Elyoseph, and Adir Solomon (2026)
dlvr.it
February 2, 2026 at 12:01 PM
AI vs. Human Judges: Solving Sentencing Disparity with LLMs
AI vs. Human Judges: Solving Sentencing Disparity with LLMs
This is an overview based on the article, "Evaluating Large Language Models as Judicial Decision-Makers" (https://doi.org/10.21428/cb6ab371.4933a431 ). We create these "Crimversations" with the AI tool Google NotebookLM. While we strive for accuracy, an overview may not perfectly reflect the original article, a limitation common to both AI-generated and human-led podcasts. For definitive information, please refer directly to the article. Stay tuned for the launch of our new sites, https://crimconsortium.com and https://crimhub.com. Intro: Can Artificial Intelligence fix the "lawlessness" and inconsistency found in criminal sentencing? This video breaks down a groundbreaking 2026 study published in Justice Quarterly that evaluates whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can serve as effective judicial decision-makers. What’s Inside: Researchers compared the sentencing decisions of 123 retired judges against three major AI models: GPT-4o, Gemini-2.0-Flash, and Claude-3.5-Sonnet. Using fictional cases involving violent assault and sexual offenses, the study tested whether AI could reduce sentencing disparity without losing accuracy. Key Findings Covered: • Inconsistency in Law: Historical data shows human judges often impose vastly different sentences for similar cases, a problem known as "noise". • AI Consistency: The study found that LLMs produced significantly lower sentence disparity than human judges, meaning they were more consistent in their rulings. • Accuracy: When using the average human sentence as a benchmark, AI models deviated less from the consensus than the judges themselves did. • Prompting Matters: The video explains how "Few-Shot" and "Chain-of-Thought" prompting strategies helped align AI decisions with judicial norms. Conclusion: While AI offers a promising tool to reduce unwarranted disparities, ethical questions regarding transparency, bias, and the "human element" of justice remain. Watch to understand the future of AI in the courtroom. Sources: Based on the paper "Evaluating Large Language Models as Judicial Decision-Makers" by Oren Gazal Ayal, Zohar Elyoseph, and Adir Solomon (2026)
www.youtube.com
February 2, 2026 at 11:58 AM
Do Police Interrogation Tactics Actually Cause False Confessions? New Data
Do Police Interrogation Tactics Actually Cause False Confessions? New Data
This is an overview based on the article, "Recalibrating the risk of false confession wrongful convictions: Interrogation tactics and inverse probability" (https://doi.org/10.21428/cb6ab371.59ff4386 ). We create these "Crimversations" with the AI tool Google NotebookLM. While we strive for accuracy, an overview may not perfectly reflect the original article, a limitation common to both AI-generated and human-led podcasts. For definitive information, please refer directly to the article. Stay tuned for the launch of our new sites, https://crimconsortium.com and https://crimhub.com. How risky are standard police interrogation tactics? While false confession wrongful convictions (FCWCs) are tragic, new research suggests the probability of them happening during lawful interrogations is much lower than previously thought. This video breaks down the 2026 study by Scott M. Mourtgos and Ian T. Adams, published in the Journal of Criminal Justice, which uses inverse probability logic to find the real numbers behind the controversy. [Key Takeaways] In this video, we cover: • The "Outcome Selection" Problem: Why looking only at known wrongful convictions inflates risk estimates and ignores the vast majority of accurate confessions. • The 1% Finding: Why the median posterior probability of a lawful tactic leading to a wrongful conviction clusters near 1%, rather than being a widespread systemic failure. • Ecological Validity: Why laboratory experiments like the "ALT-key" paradigm may not apply to real-world custodial interrogations. • The Acceptability Curve: Understanding the trade-off between the harm of wrongful convictions and the harm of failing to convict the guilty. Study Context: Critics often argue for banning accusatory methods based on cases where things went wrong. However, this study argues that without accounting for the "base rate" of wrongful convictions and the frequency of successful interrogations, we cannot accurately estimate risk. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the authors demonstrate that even when multiple tactics are used, the risk remains empirically low. Source: Mourtgos, S. M., & Adams, I. T. (2026). Recalibrating the risk of false confession wrongful convictions: Interrogation tactics and inverse probability. Journal of Criminal Justice.
www.youtube.com
January 30, 2026 at 3:43 PM
Do Police Interrogation Tactics Actually Cause False Confessions? New Data
This is an overview based on the article, "Recalibrating the risk of false confession wrongful convictions: Interrogation tactics and inverse probability" (https://doi.org/10.21428/cb6ab371.59ff4386 ). We create these "Crimversations" with the AI tool Google NotebookLM. While we strive for accuracy, an overview may not perfectly reflect the original article, a limitation common to both AI-generated and human-led podcasts. For definitive information, please refer directly to the article. Stay tuned for the launch of our new sites, https://crimconsortium.com and https://crimhub.com. How risky are standard police interrogation tactics? While false confession wrongful convictions (FCWCs) are tragic, new research suggests the probability of them happening during lawful interrogations is much lower than previously thought. This video breaks down the 2026 study by Scott M. Mourtgos and Ian T. Adams, published in the Journal of Criminal Justice, which uses inverse probability logic to find the real numbers behind the controversy. [Key Takeaways] In this video, we cover: • The "Outcome Selection" Problem: Why looking only at known wrongful convictions inflates risk estimates and ignores the vast majority of accurate confessions. • The 1% Finding: Why the median posterior probability of a lawful tactic leading to a wrongful conviction clusters near 1%, rather than being a widespread systemic failure. • Ecological Validity: Why laboratory experiments like the "ALT-key" paradigm may not apply to real-world custodial interrogations. • The Acceptability Curve: Understanding the trade-off between the harm of wrongful convictions and the harm of failing to convict the guilty. Study Context: Critics often argue for banning accusatory methods based on cases where things went wrong. However, this study argues that without accounting for the "base rate" of wrongful convictions and the frequency of successful interrogations, we cannot accurately estimate risk. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the authors demonstrate that even when multiple tactics are used, the risk remains empirically low. Source: Mourtgos, S. M., & Adams, I. T. (2026). Recalibrating the risk of false confession wrongful convictions: Interrogation tactics and inverse probability. Journal of Criminal Justice.
dlvr.it
January 30, 2026 at 12:53 PM
Crimversations: "Perceived vulnerability & the psychological impact of interpersonal victimization"
This is an overview based on the article, "Unforeseen shock: How perceived vulnerability shapes the psychological impact of interpersonal victimization" (https://doi.org/10.21428/cb6ab371.6d74933a ). We create these "Crimversations" with the AI tool Google NotebookLM. While we strive for accuracy, an overview may not perfectly reflect the original article, a limitation common to both AI-generated and human-led podcasts. For definitive information, please refer directly to the article. Stay tuned for the launch of our new sites, https://crimconsortium.com and https://crimhub.com. Panel studies often show that the average effects of victimization on well-being are modest, but this average conceals substantial variation. This research investigates whether the psychological impact of a crime depends on what the victim expected to happen to them beforehand. Key Concepts Covered: The video breaks down two competing theoretical accounts tested in the study: 1. Expectation-Violation (Shattered Assumptions): The idea that victimization is an unexpected shock that violates core beliefs about safety, predicting that those with low perceived vulnerability will suffer the most. 2. Stress-Sensitization: The idea that victimization layers onto existing strain, predicting that those who already felt vulnerable will suffer the most. Study Findings: Using two-wave panel data from 2,932 adults in Germany, the researchers found that interpersonal victimization generally had modest average effects on well-being. However, the data supported the expectation-violation account: victims who perceived their risk as low prior to the crime showed larger negative changes in their emotional state compared to those who already perceived themselves as medium- or high-risk. Reference: Kaiser, F., Jackson, J., Oberwittler, D., & Huss, B. (2026). Unforeseen shock: How perceived vulnerability shapes the psychological impact of interpersonal victimization.
dlvr.it
January 29, 2026 at 3:03 PM
Crimversations: "Exploring Formerly Incarcerated Adults’ (Non)Engagement Experiences & Perceptions"
This is an overview based on the article, "Bounded Engagement and Institutional Interdependency: Exploring Formerly Incarcerated Adults’ (Non)Engagement Experiences and Perceptions" (https://doi.org/10.21428/cb6ab371.8f91c230 ). We create these "Crimversations" with the AI tool Google NotebookLM. While we strive for accuracy, an overview may not perfectly reflect the original article, a limitation common to both AI-generated and human-led podcasts. For definitive information, please refer directly to the article. Stay tuned for the launch of our new sites, https://crimconsortium.com and https://crimhub.com. Description: This video explores the complex reality of "bounded engagement" and how formerly incarcerated adults navigate formal institutions like banks, healthcare, and the labor market. Based on a 2026 study by Denver, Navarro, and Brunson involving nearly 100 interviews, we discuss why non-engagement is often caused by administrative burdens rather than voluntary opting out. Key Topics Covered in This Video: • Bounded Engagement defined: How people engage with institutions when possible but find informal alternatives when barriers exist. • Institutional Interdependency: How a barrier in one area (like lacking a state ID) creates roadblocks in others (like getting a job or credit card). • Financial Exclusion: Why minimum balance requirements push people toward "second chance banking" apps like Chime and Cash App. • The "SSI Dilemma": How income restrictions on government benefits can discourage formal employment. • System Avoidance: Why fear of surveillance is usually limited to specific institutions, such as those related to wage garnishment for child support. • Healthcare Success: How policy changes in Massachusetts (MassHealth) have led to high medical engagement among returning citizens. Reference: Denver, M., Navarro, O., & Brunson, R. K. (2026). Bounded Engagement and Institutional Interdependency: Exploring Formerly Incarcerated Adults’ (Non)Engagement Experiences and Perceptions. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency. #Criminology #Reentry #SocialJustice #CriminalJusticeReform #Sociology #BoundedEngagement #AdministrativeBurden
dlvr.it
January 29, 2026 at 2:57 PM
Crimversations: "Perceived vulnerability & the psychological impact of interpersonal victimization"
Crimversations: "Perceived vulnerability & the psychological impact of interpersonal victimization"
This is an overview based on the article, "Unforeseen shock: How perceived vulnerability shapes the psychological impact of interpersonal victimization" (https://doi.org/10.21428/cb6ab371.6d74933a ). We create these "Crimversations" with the AI tool Google NotebookLM. While we strive for accuracy, an overview may not perfectly reflect the original article, a limitation common to both AI-generated and human-led podcasts. For definitive information, please refer directly to the article. Stay tuned for the launch of our new sites, https://crimconsortium.com and https://crimhub.com. Panel studies often show that the average effects of victimization on well-being are modest, but this average conceals substantial variation. This research investigates whether the psychological impact of a crime depends on what the victim expected to happen to them beforehand. Key Concepts Covered: The video breaks down two competing theoretical accounts tested in the study: 1. Expectation-Violation (Shattered Assumptions): The idea that victimization is an unexpected shock that violates core beliefs about safety, predicting that those with low perceived vulnerability will suffer the most. 2. Stress-Sensitization: The idea that victimization layers onto existing strain, predicting that those who already felt vulnerable will suffer the most. Study Findings: Using two-wave panel data from 2,932 adults in Germany, the researchers found that interpersonal victimization generally had modest average effects on well-being. However, the data supported the expectation-violation account: victims who perceived their risk as low prior to the crime showed larger negative changes in their emotional state compared to those who already perceived themselves as medium- or high-risk. Reference: Kaiser, F., Jackson, J., Oberwittler, D., & Huss, B. (2026). Unforeseen shock: How perceived vulnerability shapes the psychological impact of interpersonal victimization.
www.youtube.com
January 29, 2026 at 2:57 PM
Crimversations: "Exploring Formerly Incarcerated Adults’ (Non)Engagement Experiences & Perceptions"
Crimversations: "Exploring Formerly Incarcerated Adults’ (Non)Engagement Experiences & Perceptions"
This is an overview based on the article, "Bounded Engagement and Institutional Interdependency: Exploring Formerly Incarcerated Adults’ (Non)Engagement Experiences and Perceptions" (https://doi.org/10.21428/cb6ab371.8f91c230 ). We create these "Crimversations" with the AI tool Google NotebookLM. While we strive for accuracy, an overview may not perfectly reflect the original article, a limitation common to both AI-generated and human-led podcasts. For definitive information, please refer directly to the article. Stay tuned for the launch of our new sites, https://crimconsortium.com and https://crimhub.com. Description: This video explores the complex reality of "bounded engagement" and how formerly incarcerated adults navigate formal institutions like banks, healthcare, and the labor market. Based on a 2026 study by Denver, Navarro, and Brunson involving nearly 100 interviews, we discuss why non-engagement is often caused by administrative burdens rather than voluntary opting out. Key Topics Covered in This Video: • Bounded Engagement defined: How people engage with institutions when possible but find informal alternatives when barriers exist. • Institutional Interdependency: How a barrier in one area (like lacking a state ID) creates roadblocks in others (like getting a job or credit card). • Financial Exclusion: Why minimum balance requirements push people toward "second chance banking" apps like Chime and Cash App. • The "SSI Dilemma": How income restrictions on government benefits can discourage formal employment. • System Avoidance: Why fear of surveillance is usually limited to specific institutions, such as those related to wage garnishment for child support. • Healthcare Success: How policy changes in Massachusetts (MassHealth) have led to high medical engagement among returning citizens. Reference: Denver, M., Navarro, O., & Brunson, R. K. (2026). Bounded Engagement and Institutional Interdependency: Exploring Formerly Incarcerated Adults’ (Non)Engagement Experiences and Perceptions. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency. #Criminology #Reentry #SocialJustice #CriminalJusticeReform #Sociology #BoundedEngagement #AdministrativeBurden
www.youtube.com
January 28, 2026 at 3:10 PM