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Ukraine and European allies call for peace deal based on ‘current’ front lines

William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 11h

"Ukraine & European allies call for negotiations to end the war with Russia to be based on the 'current line of contact,' rather than Kyiv's ceding further territory to Moscow."

Amid unstable US policy, Europe & Ukraine are taking charge.

on.ft.com/4ovbfz8 via @FT

Statement by Volodymyr Zelenskyy and nine national leaders comes after volatile White House meeting and ahead of Putin summit

on.ft.com

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William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 11h

"The Trump-Putin call is a barrel of laughs for Russian propagandists, military experts, and Duma officials, who say Trump is following the Kremlin plan to help vanquish Ukraine."

The Kremlin may be imprudent in openly mocking Trump. He could bite back.

www.thedailybeast.com/vladimir-put...

Putin’s Pals Laugh at Trump for Following Secret Kremlin Orders

Russian state media is openly mocking the U.S. and claiming Trump was following Putin’s secret plot to pull a bait and switch on Zelensky.

www.thedailybeast.com

William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 1d

"A constructive discussion took place regarding possible concrete steps to implement understandings reached during the October 16 telephone conversation."

A warning sign that the Budapest summit may be high risk for Ukraine & the West, as was Alaska.

www.reuters.com/world/europe...

www.reuters.com

Donald Trump urged Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept Putin’s terms or be ‘destroyed’ by Russia

William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 1d

"... surrender the entire Donbas region to Putin, and repeatedly echoed talking points Putin had made in their call a day earlier."

Europe is stepping up support to Ukraine, and may now have to lead the West in any negotiations with Russia.

on.ft.com/3WMSQSu via @FT

US president tossed aside maps of Ukraine front line in volatile White House meeting

on.ft.com

Putin demanded Ukraine surrender key territory in call with Trump

William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 2d

"Witkoff pressed the Ukrainian delegation about handing over Donetsk during the meeting Friday."

This would force Ukraine to abandon a defensible position and retreat to a riskier one that would ease a Russian invasion westward toward Kyiv.

www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

The demand from Putin would significantly disadvantage Ukraine and could be an obstacle to peace, officials said.

Putin demanded Ukraine surrender key territory in call with Trump

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William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 3d

"Putin in a phone call this week with Trump demanded that Kyiv surrender full control of Donetsk ... as a condition for ending the war."

This unrealistic demand is a red flag for Budapest. Risks are rising that it could fail like Alaska.

www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

The demand from Putin would significantly disadvantage Ukraine and could be an obstacle to peace, officials said.

Opinion | Trump’s misunderstood Tomahawk diplomacy

William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 3d

"America’s leverage over Russia remains & his willingness to use it has been underestimated before."

He has imposed no new sanctions on Russia & ceased providing aid to Ukraine. Thankfully, intel sharing goes ahead.

This editorial misreads reality.

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

America’s leverage over Russia remains.

Zelensky fails to secure Tomahawk missiles at talks with Trump

William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 3d

"Hopefully, we’ll be able to get the war over without thinking about Tomahawks.”

The US needs leverage to get Russia to accept a ceasefire. Without new US sanctions on Russia & new US arms for Ukraine, the risk of another Alaska failure could be high.

www.bbc.com/news/article...

Following the meeting, Trump calls for Kyiv and Moscow to "stop where they are" and end the war.

www.bbc.com

William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 3d

"Trump warns that giving Tomahawk missiles 'could mean bigger escalation.'"

For decades the US has not had nuclear-armed Tomahawks.

But Russia uses 3 missiles in Ukraine that now have nuclear-armed variants-- Iskandr, Oreshnik & Kh-101/102.

www.bbc.com/news/live/cj...

Zelensky guarded on Tomahawk missile talks with Trump after White House meeting - live updates

Earlier, the US president warned Zelensky that giving Ukraine Tomahawk missiles

www.bbc.com

Trump Plans to Meet With Putin to Talk About a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 4d

"Again falling into a trap of rewarding Putin with a summit without ... getting anything in return."

If this fails as Alaska did, Europe may lose patience with erratic US policy. By leading on Ukraine aid, Europe has more skin in the game than the US.

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/16/u...

www.nytimes.com

William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 4d

"Tomahawks are uncomfortably near the top of the escalatory ladder."

Not quite. A Western-enforced no-fly zone over most of Ukraine, and a Western force presence there (akin to US-led UN forces in South Korea), would be substantial steps up the ladder.

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Opinion | Superpower brinkmanship gives way to an uncertain resolution

In a week of saber-rattling and talk of Tomahawk missiles, Trump and Putin agree to meet.

Russia to 'Immediately' Start Preparing Putin-Trump Summit, Kremlin Aide Says - The Moscow Times

William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 5d

Kremlin will see US agreement for next summit to be in Budapest as a preemptive concession.

Such concessions in Alaska -- especially US decision to stop pressing for 30-day ceasefire -- caused the summit to be seen in the US as a failure.

www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/10/16/r...

The Kremlin said on Thursday it would "immediately" start preparing a summit between Russian and U.S. presidents after Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump held an "extremely frank and trustful" phone call...

www.themoscowtimes.com

William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 5d

Alaska summit was Putin trick to seduce US to reduce support for Ukraine. Russians openly bragged of Putin win.

US can lessen risk of failure in next summit by first giving Ukraine more military help & imposing tough new sanctions on Russia.

www.wsj.com/world/russia... via @WSJ

Trump Says He Will Meet With Putin in Budapest to Discuss End to Ukraine War

The outcome of their call is expected to influence the president’s discussions with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, on Friday over the prospects of the U.S. providing a powerful new wea...

Republicans have changed their minds on Ukraine

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William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 5d

"We could see a scenario where Tomahawks are given and that's slow rolled and used to bring the parties to the table."

Putin would hope for this. If Tomahawks are slow rolled, he will feel less pressure to negotiate seriously.

www.newsweek.com/republicans-...

Polls show a spike in GOP support for Kyiv amid reporting the U.S is helping Ukraine with strikes inside Russia.

www.newsweek.com

William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 5d

"He is weighing if providing Tomahawks would drive Putin to the negotiating table & bring a speedy end to the war."

It will raise costs to the aggressor, as did giving Stingers to the Muj in mid-1980s. But further escalation may be needed.

www.wsj.com/world/ukrain... via @WSJ

Ukraine Wants Tomahawks. Trump Has to Decide if They Would Help End the War.

The president is weighing whether providing the cruise missiles to Kyiv would help bring Russia to the negotiating table.

Republican Support for Arming Ukraine Increases as Trump Weighs Tomahawk Shipments | National Review

William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 6d

"73 percent of GOP voters believe the U.S. should provide weapons to Ukraine and impose sanctions if Russia does not negotiate an end to the war -- a 14 percent increase from May."

Americans realize that aggression against Ukraine is a threat to us all.

www.nationalreview.com/news/republi...

Most Republicans are also supportive of imposing sanctions on countries that continue to purchase Russian oil.

www.nationalreview.com

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William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 6d

"FSB accused the former Yukos oil tycoon & 22 other exiled politicians, activists & businessmen of planning a coup."

This desperate but likely futile step hints that politics in Russia might be more fragile than many in the West had thought.

on.ft.com/3J37KAX via @FT

Russia accuses Mikhail Khodorkovsky of plotting coup

Moscow’s intelligence service launches fresh criminal case against former Yukos oil magnate and 22 other dissidents in exile

on.ft.com

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William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 7d

“A mobile radar with a remote weapons station equipped with machine guns.”

Low-cost-per-shot arms are vital. Ukraine has used machine guns atop buildings. They have range against low-flyers but perhaps not against dive-bombing drones from on high.

www.wsj.com/world/europe...?

Can Shotguns, Spy Planes and Lasers Protect Europe From the Next Drone Incursion?

A spate of suspected Russian drone appearances across Europe has forced countries to look for novel ways to protect their airspace.

Can Shotguns, Spy Planes and Lasers Protect Europe From the Next Drone Incursion?

William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 7d

"Efficient drone detection relies on sifting vast amounts of information from air and ship traffic, and responding to a drone threat within seconds rather than hours."

This may be a job for AI. Human-in-the-loop shoot-down decisions might be too slow.

www.wsj.com/world/europe...?

A spate of suspected Russian drone appearances across Europe has forced countries to look for novel ways to protect their airspace.

Ukraine war briefing: Crimea oil refinery burns as Russia feels effects on fuel supply

William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 7d

"EU has started funding a special tribunal to prosecute Putin and other senior Russian officials for the crime of aggression."

Successors may be keen to blame current Kremlin leadership, so as to strengthen their own position, as Serbians after Milosevic did.

www.theguardian.com/world/2025/o...

Glide bombs knock out power supply and hit hospital in Kharkiv; Zelenskyy lining up Trump meeting with Tomahawks hot topic. What we know on day 1,329

www.theguardian.com

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William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 8d

"Poland is a cornerstone in NATO planning for a conflict with Russia, and a crucial partner for the smaller Baltic countries."

Poland's defense will be even stronger if its forces are integrated with Ukraine's in NATO.

www.wsj.com/world/europe... via @WSJ

As Russian Aggression Turns West, Poland Says It’s Ready

For more than a decade, Poland has been building up for the worst case scenario: becoming the front line in a war between Russia and the West.

Trump may approve Tomahawks for Ukraine if Russia continues war

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William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 8d

"Zelenskiy said Ukraine would only use Tomahawk missiles for military purposes and not attack civilians in Russia."

Ukraine's record is good. It attacks only Russian military and war-supporting targets, such as oil refineries.

www.reuters.com/business/aer...

Zelenskiy said Ukraine would only use Tomahawk missiles for military purposes and not attack civilians in Russia.

www.reuters.com

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William Courtney @courtneywmh.bsky.social · 9d

Welcome step if true.