During the post-pandemic hiring boom of 2021 and 2022, job postings and quits surged, and employers sped up hiring to lock in workers. The labor market has cooled since then, and hiring is taking longer.
During the post-pandemic hiring boom of 2021 and 2022, job postings and quits surged, and employers sped up hiring to lock in workers. The labor market has cooled since then, and hiring is taking longer.
- Jobs: Up 177k
- Unemployment: Flat at 4.2%
- Healthcare jobs: +51k, transportation and warehousing: +29k, federal government: -9k
Good for now, but the market can’t escape rapidly souring business and consumer confidence forever.
- Jobs: Up 177k
- Unemployment: Flat at 4.2%
- Healthcare jobs: +51k, transportation and warehousing: +29k, federal government: -9k
Good for now, but the market can’t escape rapidly souring business and consumer confidence forever.
- Job openings: Down 288k from Feb, but down 901k from Mar 2024.
- Layoffs: Low overall at 1.0%
- Hires rate: Stable near 2013 levels
- Quits: Trending up so far this year, now at 2.1%
- Job openings: Down 288k from Feb, but down 901k from Mar 2024.
- Layoffs: Low overall at 1.0%
- Hires rate: Stable near 2013 levels
- Quits: Trending up so far this year, now at 2.1%
A lot has obviously happened since January that didn't show up in this report. More recent data from the Indeed Job Postings Index suggests a potential scenario of renewed cooling in the coming months.
A lot has obviously happened since January that didn't show up in this report. More recent data from the Indeed Job Postings Index suggests a potential scenario of renewed cooling in the coming months.
- Solid headline job growth numbers: +151,000
- Unemployment ticked up to 4.1% but remains low
- Federal employment fell by 10,000, but the total number was likely higher, given data collection that happened relatively early in February.
- Solid headline job growth numbers: +151,000
- Unemployment ticked up to 4.1% but remains low
- Federal employment fell by 10,000, but the total number was likely higher, given data collection that happened relatively early in February.
This is still a solid labor market defined by low unemployment, low layoffs, and payroll gains above the estimated 100,000 needed to keep up with population growth.
#numbersday
This is still a solid labor market defined by low unemployment, low layoffs, and payroll gains above the estimated 100,000 needed to keep up with population growth.
#numbersday
- Quits rate low but unchanged @ 2%
- Hires rate low but unchanged @ 3.4%
Read my full statement here: www.hiringlab.org/2025/02/04/d...
- Quits rate low but unchanged @ 2%
- Hires rate low but unchanged @ 3.4%
Read my full statement here: www.hiringlab.org/2025/02/04/d...
- YoY private-sector wage growth down to 3.6% in Q4 (compared to 4.3% the year before)
- Clear quarterly and annual slowing for among ex-incentive paid jobs
- YoY private-sector wage growth down to 3.6% in Q4 (compared to 4.3% the year before)
- Clear quarterly and annual slowing for among ex-incentive paid jobs
This is not government "cooking the books". These revisions show why you should trust US official statistics.
This is not government "cooking the books". These revisions show why you should trust US official statistics.
- Job gains beat expectations, up +256,000
- Unemployment is down to 4.1%, but more importantly, it seems to be stable over the last 6 months.
- Prime-age EPOP still concerning and looking dangerously close to reversing its multi-year increasing trend.
- Job gains beat expectations, up +256,000
- Unemployment is down to 4.1%, but more importantly, it seems to be stable over the last 6 months.
- Prime-age EPOP still concerning and looking dangerously close to reversing its multi-year increasing trend.
That is much higher than a 43% low in May 2022. However, the share has leveled off since summer 2023 and now sits around pre-pandemic levels.
That is much higher than a 43% low in May 2022. However, the share has leveled off since summer 2023 and now sits around pre-pandemic levels.
Indeed data shows a similar story: employer demand for holiday hires fell below the trend in November. Holiday hiring kicked off around the same time in 2024 and rose in line with 2019 levels before flattening in November.
Indeed data shows a similar story: employer demand for holiday hires fell below the trend in November. Holiday hiring kicked off around the same time in 2024 and rose in line with 2019 levels before flattening in November.
Good:
- The (literal) clouds that overshadowed October's report parted, added +227,000 jobs in Nov, Oct revised up to +36,000 (from the initial report of +12,000).
- Average hourly earnings have cooled but remain robust which signals continued demand for workers.
Good:
- The (literal) clouds that overshadowed October's report parted, added +227,000 jobs in Nov, Oct revised up to +36,000 (from the initial report of +12,000).
- Average hourly earnings have cooled but remain robust which signals continued demand for workers.
- Job openings ticked up to 7.7 million (from 7.4).
- The quits rate rose for the first time in 17 months.
- Layoff rate = 1.0 -> Below pre-pandemic all-time lows.
Hires rate weak at 3.3%, but could be a blip given slight pickup in recent months.
- Job openings ticked up to 7.7 million (from 7.4).
- The quits rate rose for the first time in 17 months.
- Layoff rate = 1.0 -> Below pre-pandemic all-time lows.
Hires rate weak at 3.3%, but could be a blip given slight pickup in recent months.