Author | Lightnews

Reposted by Connor Allen

JJ Zachariason @lateroundqb.bsky.social · Aug 20

The last guest for this season of Becoming a Best Ball Bro is the great @connorallennfl.bsky.social! We chat about his favorite stacks, handling player hype, and so much more.

Finale coming your way next week.

Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/3eVk...

Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=wj-I...

Becoming a Best Ball Bro: Leaning Into the Hype?

The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast · Episode

open.spotify.com

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Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Jul 1

For more information like this, follow me
@connorallennfl.bsky.social and get a betting subscription to find all of my official plays.

Get 10% off with code WIN10: 4for4.com/plans

4for4 Plans & Pricing

4for4.com

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Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Jul 1

Books have started to adjust props toward the median but if you are up to date on camp reports, coachspeak, role projections, etc there are tons of lines to pick off.

I have already released 7 season-long props, some of which are still available! (All of them are unders)

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Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Jul 1

6. Why do season-long unders do so well?

There are so many extra outs for an under to hit instead of an over. An under can hit due to:
• Injury
• Poor performance
• Benching
• Roster changes impacting workload
• Poor QB play tanking the offense
• Bad OL play +many others

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Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Jul 1

5. So, should you ever bet overs? It's tough.

The ONLY category (out of 29 tracked) to show a multi-year profit on overs is QB Rushing Yards at 58%. This trend was supercharged by the most recent season and on a super small sample.

• 2021: 50%
• 2022: 63%
• 2023: 40%
• 2024: 80%

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Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Jul 1

4. The 3rd highest hit rate over the last 4 years is Receiving Touchdown UNDERS at 62%

• 2021: 58%
• 2022: 64%
• 2023: 64%
• 2024: 60%

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Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Jul 1

3. The 2nd highest hit rate over the last 4 years is RB Rushing Touchdown UNDERS at 63%

• 2021: 72%
• 2022: 62%
• 2023: 59%
• 2024: 61%

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Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Jul 1

2. The single most profitable long-term bet has been Passing Yard UNDERS, hitting at a wild 69% over four seasons!

2021: 78%
2022: 71%
2023: 64%
2024: 67%

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Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Jul 1

1. Blindly betting the under on season-long player props has hit over 60% for four consecutive years!

Under hit rate by year:
• 2021: 63%
• 2022: 60%
• 2023: 60.5%
• 2024: 60.3%

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Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Jul 1

Sportsbooks have already posted HUNDREDS of NFL season-long player props for 2025!

I analyzed 1,053 props from the last 4 seasons and found 6 trends you need to know before betting the season-long prop market:

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Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Apr 22

🔥🔥🔥

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Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Mar 10

Justin Fields signs with the Jets on a two-year, $40M deal with $30M guaranteed.

Fantasy angle: Fields has supported WR1's in the past and has flashed fantasy upside as a runner.

Betting angle: Can't wait to bet the under on the Jets win total asap. Should open at 5.5 or less

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Reposted by Connor Allen

JP Acosta @acosta32jp.bsky.social · Mar 10

This could be really fun. Mitchell brings them some juice that Pacheco couldn't really access off that injury

Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Mar 10

Chiefs are signing RB Elijah Mitchell on a deal up to $3.5M per Jordan Schultz.

Potentially big opportunity for Mitchell with both Hunt and Pacheco averaging under 4 yards per carry last season

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Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Mar 10

🚀

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Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Mar 10

Chiefs are signing RB Elijah Mitchell on a deal up to $3.5M per Jordan Schultz.

Potentially big opportunity for Mitchell with both Hunt and Pacheco averaging under 4 yards per carry last season

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Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Mar 10

Appreciate it, Danny!

Reposted by Connor Allen

Danny Heifetz @dannyheifetz.bsky.social · Mar 10

if you're looking for an X alternative for Free Agency news, here's a good way to instantly get a list, or your timeline, up on NFL content

Mina Kimes @minakimes.bsky.social · Jan 21

Looks like some new folks are here....welcome! This is my starter pack of NFL follows (I add to it all the time, so even if you subscribe, re-sub):

go.bsky.app/8RH6KbH

And here's a list if you'd rather just make a feed:

bsky.app/profile/did:...

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Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Mar 10

The Bears have now replaced the entire interior of their OL:
OG Joe Thuney
OG Jonah Jackson
C Drew Dalman

Big changes happening in Chicago

Marcus Mosher @marcusmosher.bsky.social · Mar 10

Drew Dalman to Bears.

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Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Mar 10

🤝

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Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Mar 10

Likewise Omar

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Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Mar 10

Chris Godwin back to the Bucs!

Currently going as the WR35 and 64th overall in early Underdog drafts...

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Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Mar 10

a man wearing a music band shirt is holding a skateboard over his shoulder

ALT: a man wearing a music band shirt is holding a skateboard over his shoulder

media.tenor.com

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Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Dec 5

On the other hand, Montgomery out-carried Gibbs 17-11 last time around against the Packers and recently was involved with leaking some plays/protections on Tik Tok. That may have no impact but I think there is a non-zero chance.

Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Dec 5

Reasoning:

"With no DJ Reader in the lineup, this Lions Rush defense is going from an elite unit to one of the most injured of the week.

"He’s posted 18, 26, and 19 carries over his last three games and currently ranks 3rd in yards with 987 and 4th in attempts with 221."

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Connor Allen @connorallennfl.bsky.social · Dec 5

Thursday Night Football Play on @bnfantasy.bsky.social !

Play: Josh Jacobs to have 2+ more rushing yards than Jahmyr Gibbs!

💸NEW OFFER: Your first entry is sweat-free up to $500 with code: SF500

Tail: buff.ly/412Pb6A

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