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Manuel Excel

@colintj.bsky.social

1.5K followers 490 following 2.6K posts

“A mainstay of charts and graphs twitter” - MGo “Top-notch, safe, family-friendly heckler” - Benetti

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Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 3h

Technically they’re blitz/popping not just pre-defined rats but w/e

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 3h

Unsurprisingly Mattison’s Michigan playbook has similar. Wonder how long the Ryan tree has been running this stuff.

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 3h

And here’s the 0 Double Rat (aka Train in the 2010 Jets playbook)

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 3h

Conveniently Michigan ran these in back to back plays in ‘22 against PSU bc we were offside on the first 3rd down. Here’s the show 0 drop into Tampa.

Reposted by Manuel Excel

Bill Radjewski @collegefootballdata.com · 11h

I haven't had much time to jazz this up, but this is what I have for now. I'd like to go back and break it down by DC rather than HC.

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 14h

Yeah if you’re stipulating that they would look like they’ve been coached by adults then I think you ofc take that

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 15h

so you’re saying he’s already got the Franklin decision chart

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 15h

I would tend to think better but I dk if they would actually understand their assignments.

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 17h

Wink vs Minter

Ian Hussey @ianhussey.mmmdata.io · 20h

The original study used these questions, which did not actually ask about "desirability"!

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 18h

a much slimmer resume than I would want but I’m not gonna tell you he can’t work.

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 18h

Minter’s primary third down package was a 0 blitz with 2 rats and then Tampa off that.

He could coach that stuff. Wink can’t.

They don’t do the basics so ofc they can’t do the advance stuff.

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 1d

can we see this as a histogram instead of a scatter plot?

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 1d

An insurance policy with a robot plan?!

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 1d

Yeah at some point stupid is stupid and Sherrone either has to recognize it and make the right hire to save his job or not.

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 1d

I don’t think there’s any solving for it. They were closer to this by the end of last year where they just played him as a plug backer. Hit a gap and go find ball.

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 1d

Yeah it's probably just a ton of skipped steps and cutting corners and lack of accountability. Barham and Hillman are out there doing dumb shit over and over and they play them anyway.

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 1d

Tampa is the backbone of their 3rd down D. They would've installed it SUPER early and they should have repped it a ton.

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 1d

If Penn State pays half a gajillion dollars to buy out James Franklin and hire Matt Rhule the cash for equity thing just makes everything so friggin clear. These guys just want cash to shove into budget holes and they'll do the same thing 5-10 years from now when the TV recession hits.

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 1d

There's definitely plenty of stuff that's just not getting through. I am very confident they've told Barham to box vs. counter and he just...doesn't. But when you let that guy play anyway (and all the other examples of this) what are you telling the rest of your team?

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 1d

Yeah that’s why I’m curious. Is the original thought process there but they’re not actually making sure their guys know? Or is the thought not there in the first place.

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 1d

Very next play, they’re subbing their DL to STAY in 3-4 and nobody is lined up. Hillman I think is thinking that 2 is under so he’s free to help on 1. Obviously that’s not the case.

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 1d

So he’s busy trying to figure out what they should be doing while the play just runs past him.

If you haven’t made sure your guys know what to do vs very common CFB wrinkles, you haven’t done your job. Really curious what these pages in the playbook looks like.

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 1d

Hausmann knows the 2 under need to DOT—Drop Off Trips. Which means push both underneath defenders toward the 3 receiver side.

But what do you do vs 4 fast? Should the backers push out and have somebody weak solve for the inside most WR? Should they check to something else? They don’t know.

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 1d

Here’s a good example of our guys not being given answers in their calls.

This is 3-4 vs 12 on 1st down after the 3rd and 1 that SC got into 12 for, tho I think they could’ve subbed. It’s a 4-deep 2-under fire zone.

Manuel Excel @colintj.bsky.social · 1d

😬

Bill Radjewski @collegefootballdata.com · 1d

I had USC with a 66% (!) offensive success rate on standard downs and a 60% overall success rate. These are the type of numbers you'd expect to see against a MAC or FCS defense.