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Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 14h

A recent Economic Commentary presents estimates of the neutral #InterestRate from a newly developed model and provides a high-level description of the model. See our latest Center for Inflation Research newsletter: https://clefed.org/4gZPwga

Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 15h

Fourth District contact reports suggested flat business activity in recent weeks, but contacts expected activity to increase modestly in the months ahead. #BeigeBook clefed.org/3ih7pZx

Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 1d

According to a new Small Business Credit Survey report, compared to stable nonemployers, potential employers were more likely to report that they had experienced financial challenges in the prior year. See the details: https://clefed.org/43kogmS

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Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 2d

The Small Business Credit Survey provides insights on nonemployer firms, or small businesses that do not have any paid employees besides the owner(s). Learn about their firm performance, challenges, and more: https://clefed.org/43kogmS

Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 2d

We studied how households update their inflation expectations. We show that households more frequently update their expectations when the signal is above the prior compared to when the signal is below. This helps explain why disinflations can be sluggish clefed.org/4hb3oUP

Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 2d

Our Survey of Regional Conditions and Expectations was administered in September, and included questions for Fourth District businesses surrounding nonlabor costs, selling prices, revenue, and more. See their answers: https://clefed.org/494E3Kj

Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 3d

Our latest Economic Commentary analyzes the trajectory of inflation before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, and the impact of this inflation on different income groups during that period. See https://clefed.org/3Wt5lCs

Did Inflation Affect Households Differently? A Look at the Postpandemic Inflation and Wage Growth Dynamics

We analyze the heterogeneous effects of postpandemic inflation and disinflation by inspecting inflation and wage growth experienced across quintiles of household income and wage distributions. We find...

clefed.org

Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 3d

Our Education and Learning Center is closed today. We will be open again tomorrow and Wednesday during our normal hours 9 AM—2 PM. Plan your visit: clefed.org/visit

Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 6d

We are hosting our thirteenth annual financial stability conference on November 20–21, 2025. This year’s conference theme is Financial Stability in a Time of Rapid Economic and Technological Change, register now to attend in Cleveland or virtually: https://clefed.org/42kurqM

“2025 Financial Stability in a time of Rapid Economic & Technological Change”

Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 7d

Inside the latest #CenterForInflationResearch newsletter: #PresidentHammack’s recent public remarks on #inflation, recordings from the recent CfIR-ECB annual inflation conference, indicators & data, the difference between #PriceLevel & inflation, and more https://clefed.org/4gZPwga

Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 7d

Announcement of new tariffs this year sparked debate about the feasibility of reshoring manufacturing. Our latest District Data Brief offers employment & demographic insights into this discussion: https://clefed.org/4nQGbKs #Tariffs

Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 8d

TODAY: Our #InflationExpectations Fed Talk with our Center for Inflation Research is happening at 3 pm ET. Register now to join us virtually and submit your questions to our panel of experts: https://clefed.org/4pzvqNG

Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 8d

Our Education and Learning Center is closed today and Monday. We will be open again on Tuesday, 10/14, during our normal hours 9 AM—2 PM. Plan your visit: clefed.org/visit

Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 10d

Our New Economic Commentary examines postpandemic inflation and wage growth dynamics. Read https://clefed.org/3Wt5lCs for details.

Did Inflation Affect Households Differently? A Look at the Postpandemic Inflation and Wage Growth Dynamics

We analyze the heterogeneous effects of postpandemic inflation and disinflation by inspecting inflation and wage growth experienced across quintiles of household income and wage distributions. We find...

clefed.org

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Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 10d

Our internships for summer 2026 are now open! View the available opportunities and learn more about the program: clevelandfed.org/internships

Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 11d

Happy #WorldTeachersDay! Teachers, did you know we offer classroom-ready guides with resources designed to help educators and schools meet Ohio’s financial literacy curriculum standards? Check out our free resources today: https://www.clevelandfed.org/financial-literacy-curriculum #EconEdMonth

Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 13d

#SmallBiz owners: We are seeking responses to the #SmallBusinessCreditSurvey, which generates reports throughout the year to provide insights to #policymakers, service providers, and #lenders. Set aside a few minutes to respond: https://t.co/IfkY49xqHV https://t.co/MfVcpJgChX

Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 14d

How important is the information effect of #MonetaryPolicy? Researchers show the information effect reduces the output gaps caused by demand shocks & noise shocks, but may lead to a temporary rise in inflation after a contractionary monetary policy shock https://clefed.org/42SokKq

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Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 14d

Like many states across the country, Ohio is hoping to grow the number of advanced manufacturing jobs. So how can we identify people that have the right skills for this line of work? The Occupational Mobility Explorer could be a key tool: http://bit.ly/4pxXMrL

Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 15d

Survey of Regional Conditions and Expectations (SORCE) total business conditions diffusion index decreased by 11 points to 2, while the total employment diffusion index increased by 11 points to 10. These results were calculated from the 9.18–9.25 survey clefed.org/SORCE

Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 15d

Results from our Survey of Regional Conditions and Expectations provide insight into how tariffs are affecting firms and the larger economy.
See our latest District Data Brief for details: https://clefed.org/4gMusts

Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 16d

Our researchers present a new model of mortgage default that better matches the data. They find that more realistically capturing the tradeoffs between staying in a home versus exiting into the rental market are key to understanding the decision to default https://clefed.org/4mDX7lU

"Is There a Puzzle in Underwater Mortgage Default?”

Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 17d

📈 Understanding #inflation expectations is key to understanding how inflation and the economy may change. Join our next Fed Talk on 10/8 to learn how these expectations shape consumer and business decisions and why they matter to central banks. Register: https://clefed.org/4pzvqNG

Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 20d

The Cleveland Fed’s median PCE #inflation rate was 0.2% in August and 3.3% on a year-over-year basis. Latest update: http://clefed.org/PCE

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Cleveland Fed @clevelandfed.bsky.social · 21d

Our researchers present a new model of mortgage default that better matches the data. They find that more realistically capturing the tradeoffs between staying in a home versus exiting into the rental market are key to understanding the decision to default https://clefed.org/4mDX7lU

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