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centralwinger.com
devinpleuler
@centralwinger.com
Goalkeeper. he/him.
The best thing about LLMs in data science is that nobody forgets to label their axes anymore.
November 3, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Reposted by devinpleuler
We have an opening on our Data Analytics team at US Soccer for a Performance Data Analyst. This person should have strong foundational skills in data analysis (python preferred) as well as experience in the Sport Science/human performance space (any sport)
recruiting.paylocity.com/Recruiting/J...
UNITED STATES SOCCER FEDERATION 1 - Performance Data Analyst
U.S. Soccer Overview We are U.S. Soccer and we are the future of sport in the United States.  Our mission is to make soccer the preeminent sport in the United States.  We embrace divers...
recruiting.paylocity.com
June 20, 2025 at 1:28 PM
When your step count is larger than your sample size.

Ahead of the election, I walked 65 km around my electoral district and took a picture of every political lawn sign.

www.centralwinger.com/p/getting-st...
June 2, 2025 at 1:04 PM
So if Distance is flat, and Sprints are up, that means ... Walking must also be up?

There has to be some sort of reciprocal change to the ensure balance.

I'm having a very difficult time believing this data, especially after the inflation of stoppage time added minutes.
NEW with @simonkuper.bsky.social:

The prevailing narrative around increased injuries and player workload in elite football is wrong.

Players don’t play any more football than in the past. What has changed is a sharp rise in intensity of play.

Not more minutes, but each minute exerts more load.
May 15, 2025 at 9:20 PM
Reposted by devinpleuler
We're talking football! Well kinda. @centralwinger.com asked if anyone was interested in explaining The Zoo model, so I figured I'd give it a go.

thebucketless.wordpress.com/2025/04/01/e...
Explaining The Zoo
Over on his soccer substack, Devin Pleuler has brought up The Zoo model a couple times while admitting that he doesn’t fully understand how it works. The Zoo was the winning entry to BDB 2020…
thebucketless.wordpress.com
April 1, 2025 at 8:20 PM
First blog post in a while.

Tracking data research probably wasn’t worth it until recently. And some unexpected utility of the Hungarian algorithm.

www.centralwinger.com/p/tracking-d...
Tracking Data was a Red Herring
It's not anymore.
www.centralwinger.com
March 31, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Lucasfilm should have hired @mikeduncan.bsky.social to do a Revolutions-style accompanying podcast for Andor. Such a missed opportunity.
February 24, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Is there a conceptual issue with performing a bayesian update on xG measurements after a shot? The outcome is pretty useful information, and it's a mathematically valid approach.

I assume someone has already tried this?
January 27, 2025 at 11:08 AM
This is awesome!
Been having fun* recently** with the body pose data that MLSE made available: github.com/mlsedigital/...

Stars on the graphs are a 'phase detection' function for various types of joints

*Not always fun
**getting ill just after New Year didn't help productivity
January 23, 2025 at 9:36 AM
I built 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗺𝗹𝗶𝘁-𝘀𝗼𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗿, a custom React component for Streamlit for working with soccer tracking data.

And a blog post on 𝗕𝗶𝗴 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮, 𝗧𝗶𝗻𝘆 𝗧𝗲𝗮𝗺𝘀
Big Data, Tiny Teams
Introducing streamlit-soccer and some thoughts on team tools
www.centralwinger.com
January 13, 2025 at 3:08 PM
First search term of the 2025 (and my parental leave) was “baby ate cat food”, so we’re off to a good start.
January 1, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Reposted by devinpleuler
The theory here is that some kind of basic property of “goal probability” is “option-ness”

open.substack.com/pub/absolute...
Options have Value
Zone-reads, pick 'n rolls, cut-backs
open.substack.com
December 27, 2024 at 8:51 PM
Big Chances. Gone too soon?
Let's Bring Back Big Chances
Entropy and a Unified Model of Goal Probability
www.centralwinger.com
December 23, 2024 at 2:28 PM
Reposted by devinpleuler
🏃‍♂️⏪ 🏃‍♀️ 𝐀𝐧 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧 𝐒𝐨𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐫

It's been over a year now since I was invited to present my 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐲 metric to a small group of people at a SkillCorner event in Dallas, TX.

I've finally put some effort into writing a blog on it!

unravelsports.github.io/2024/12/12/p...
🔬 An Intuitive Measure for Pressing
For a long time I’ve had the aim to develop an intuitive measure for pressing that can be used by coaches, assistants and (data) analysts to identify and analyze pressing situations, compute advanced ...
unravelsports.github.io
December 12, 2024 at 1:34 PM
We're looking for a 𝗙𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗗𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿 on a 12-month contract help us build team performance tools across multiple sports.
Full Stack Developer
Company Description: At Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment Partnership (MLSE), we are committed to creating an inclusive workplace that is representative of our community and where all employees fe...
jobs.smartrecruiters.com
December 11, 2024 at 7:43 PM
These are some of my favourite "tricks" that I've picked up over the last few years that have been particularly useful in soccer analytics.
Béziers, Bivariates, and Beyond
Some Tricks I Wish I Knew Earlier
www.centralwinger.com
December 9, 2024 at 1:45 PM
A football formulation of the fermi paradox – in blog post! Where are the new ideas?
Unexpected Origins and the Fermi Paradox
Can foundational soccer ideas achieve escape velocity?
www.centralwinger.com
December 2, 2024 at 1:53 PM
Really cool that these sort of jobs are starting to be earnestly posted and advertised as opposed to purely insider appointment. And posted salary range!

The times are changing.
Eamon Dunlavey on LinkedIn: Assistant Coach & Lead Analyst - DC Soccer LLC dba D.C. United
D.C. United is looking to add a Assistant Coach/Lead Analyst. Anyone interested in applying feel free to reach out to me with any…
www.linkedin.com
November 28, 2024 at 6:23 PM
Enjoyed speaking with the folks at Analytics FC.

I haven't spoken a whole lot online about my new role. It's exciting to be working across multiple sports. Learning a bunch.
New Podcast Episode 🎙️ ⚽

New host Chris Gill welcomes MLSE 's Devin Pleuler for a deep chat about football data. The pod also covers figuring out player roles and positions, and how Devin thinks about and decides on new research projects.

Listen here: soundcloud.com/analytics-fc...
Episode 50: Analytics FC x Devin Pleuler
Devin Pleuler is currently director of research and development at Toronto based multi-club ownership group, MLSE. Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment have a portfolio of clubs across football, basketb
soundcloud.com
November 27, 2024 at 2:08 PM
New post (!) – on xG, rebounds, conditional probability, and the need for more storytelling.

There are still a lot of problems with how we use this model.
Penalties and Conditional Probability
Expected Goals still need storytelling.
www.centralwinger.com
November 25, 2024 at 2:41 PM
New (first) post on the Central Winger substack. With thoughts on Player Similarity, problems with current approaches, and a path forward.
Substituting Similarity
Summary statistics are problematic for comparing players
open.substack.com
November 18, 2024 at 1:34 PM
Reposted by devinpleuler
I hear people are harking for a former time 😎
November 15, 2024 at 8:22 PM
I miss the old days of Soccer Analytics twitter, so I'm going to start writing some occasional thoughts again.
Central Winger | Devin Pleuler | Substack
Occasional thoughts on Sports Analytics. Click to read Central Winger, by Devin Pleuler, a Substack publication. Launched 20 hours ago.
www.centralwinger.com
November 15, 2024 at 1:15 PM