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Carnegie Russia Eurasia @carnegierussia.bsky.social · 1d

On the latest episode of the @warontherocks.bsky.social podcast, Senior Fellows @michaelkofman.bsky.social and @massdara.bsky.social join @ryanevans.bsky.social to discuss frontline developments, the possible provision of Tomahawks to Ukraine, Russia's diplomatic failures, and more.

Holding Ground: Ukraine, Russia, and the Politics of Persistence

Michael Kofman and Dara Massicot join Ryan to discuss the state of the front, how Ukraine and Russia are staying in the fight, the possible provision of

warontherocks.com

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 2d

Back in 2022, the Kremlin was counting on Ukraine to prove weak and futile. Now it is counting on NATO to be weak, divided, and indecisive, argues Alexander Baunov: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

By Sending Drones Into NATO States, Russia Is Repeating the Mistakes of 2022

There’s no guarantee that Russia won’t repeat the mistake it made in 2022. Back then, the Kremlin was counting on Ukraine to prove weak and futile. Now it is counting on NATO to be weak, divided, and ...

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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 5d

The current US administration is the easiest one so far for Central Asia to work with. Business interests can be used to attract attention & there's no need for demonstrative distancing from Russia or commitment to democratic reforms. @ceip-politika.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Why Is Central Asia Buying Trump’s Attention?

The current U.S. administration is the easiest one so far for Central Asia to work with. Business interests can be used to attract Washington’s attention, and there is no longer any need for demonstra...

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 7d

Why is Beijing opening a flurry of technical training centers known as Luban Workshops in Central Asia, and what is their significance? Edward Lemon and Bradley Jardine explain.

China Is Using Vocational Training Centers to Rebuild Its Image in Central Asia

In Central Asia, Beijing is learning to adapt. The era of raw economic assertiveness is giving way to a more nuanced strategy that fuses investment with education, infrastructure with human capital, a...

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 7d

Why did Putin appoint former prosecutor general Igor Krasnov to head of Russia’s Supreme Court, and what does this mean for the growing power of Russia’s security forces amid the war with Ukraine? Read Mikhail Komin’s analysis: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Is Russia’s Justice System Reshuffle an Attempt to Rein in the Security Forces?

It seems that Putin decided not to reward Prosecutor General Krasnov for the trillions of rubles he had expropriated for the budget. Instead, he chose to curb Krasnov’s enthusiasm and protect the syst...

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 8d

Moscow’s anti-immigrant campaign at home is proving increasingly costly abroad. For the first time in years, Central Asian countries are reassessing their relations with Moscow, writes Galiya Ibragimova: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Moscow’s Xenophobic Migration Policy Is Impacting Relations With Central Asia

By stirring up anti-migrant sentiment to distract Russian society from the war in Ukraine, Moscow is alienating its allies in Central Asia. Following Azerbaijan’s example, Central Asian countries are ...

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 8d

Sergey Vakulenko's perspective on intensifying Ukrainian strikes against Russia's refineries is featured in a recent article from The Economist.

Ukraine’s hellfire is intensifying the Kremlin’s fuel crisis

Almost half of Russia’s refineries have been hit by drones and missiles

www.economist.com

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 9d

"Kyiv’s unprecedented strike campaign against Russian oil refineries has inflicted serious—but likely not critical—damage on the country’s ability to produce fuel." Sergey Vakulenko analyzes the impact on Russia’s oil refining capacity.

Have Ukrainian Drones Really Knocked Out 38% of Russia’s Oil Refining Capacity?

Kyiv’s unprecedented strike campaign on Russian oil refineries has inflicted serious—but likely not critical—damage on the country’s ability to produce fuel.

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Carnegie Russia Eurasia @carnegierussia.bsky.social · 8d

In a new article for @foreignaffairs.com, Senior Fellow Dara Massicot (@massdara.bsky.social) argues that the Russian military has "quietly constructed a complex ecosystem of learning" to institutionalize battlefield lessons from Ukraine.

How Russia Recovered

What the Kremlin is learning from the war in Ukraine.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 10d

Russia has revived Intervision, a Cold War-era socialist bloc alternative to Eurovision. But despite a slick showbiz veneer, it failed to provide a convincing answer as to why it was necessary in the first place, argues Andrey Shashkov:

Putin’s Nostalgia Makes a Muddle of Russian Eurovision Analog

Despite the organizers’ efforts, Intervision was unable to demonstrate its reason for existence, and ended up with disappointing viewing figures.

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 13d

🎙️ NEW EPISODE of the Carnegie Politika podcast: @alexgabuev.bsky.social and Justyna Gotkowska discuss the latest Russia-related airspace violations of Denmark, Estonia, Norway, and Poland, and what they mean for NATO: carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

What to Do About Russian Drones in NATO Airspace, with Justyna Gotkowska

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 13d

Russia is once again facing a major demographic crisis, and this time the decline in the birth rate is deeper, the age structure of the population is worse, and Russia's appeal to immigrants has declined, writes Salavat Abylkalikov: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Russia’s Current Demographic Crisis Is Its Most Dangerous Yet

The key difference between the current demographic crisis and the previous one is that the latter was significantly mitigated by an element that is now absent: immigration.

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 14d

"After three and a half years of war, the Russian government is stabilizing the country’s war-torn public finances not through economic growth, but through tax hikes." Alexandra Prokopenko analyzes Russia's draft budget and the coming tax changes: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

New Budget Confirms the Russian Public Is Paying for the War

After three and a half years of war, the Russian government is stabilizing the country’s war-torn public finances not through economic growth, but through tax hikes.

carnegieendowment.org

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Carnegie Russia Eurasia @carnegierussia.bsky.social · 15d

As the Russian military continues its "grinding advance" in Donetsk, Senior Fellow Michael Kofman (@michaelkofman.bsky.social) joins @theworld.org's Marco Werman to discuss why Russian casualties are on the rise.

Russian military continues 'grinding advance' in Donetsk - The World from PRX

Russian troops have made incremental gains in parts of eastern Ukraine, although their advances elsewhere have stalled. That’s according to Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment fo...

theworld.org

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 16d

"For decades, Dmitry Kozak was one of Putin’s most trusted mediators when it came to post-Soviet countries. But the war in Ukraine has made his services redundant." Vladimir Solovyov on the high-profile departure of the Kremlin deputy chief of staff: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Why Putin No Longer Needs Negotiator in Chief Dmitry Kozak

For decades, Dmitry Kozak was one of Putin’s most trusted mediators when it came to post-Soviet countries. But the war in Ukraine has made his services redundant.

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 22d

Water shortages in Central Asia will worsen significantly when Afghanistan completes a canal diverting substantial volumes of water from the Amu Darya River. And it could escalate regional tensions, writes Galiya Ibragimova. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal Could Trigger a Central Asian Water Crisis

The ambitious irrigation project is becoming a source of growing tension in Central Asia, but none of the region’s countries have been able to come up with an alternative solution.

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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 18d

The latest Russia Contingency is out. I join BG Jyri Raitasalo to talk about how Finnish Defense Forces are changing training, perspectives on lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war, deterrence/defense l as part of NATO, and more. @WarOnTheRocks t.co/wnKrcOxLug

https://warontherocks.com/episode/therussiacontingency/36087/finlands-frontline-and-natos-northern-defense/

t.co

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 23d

Negotiations over the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline are bogged down in discussions over price, flexibility, and timeframe—and Russia’s lack of alternative buyers means China can take its time, argues Sergey Vakulenko: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Why Can’t Russia and China Agree on the Power of Siberia 2 Gas Pipeline?

Negotiations are bogged down in discussions over price, flexibility, and timeframe—and Russia’s lack of alternative buyers means China can take its time.

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 24d

The painless return of Russia’s fully militarized economy to a civilian model is impossible: no amount of fortune can override the laws of economics, argues Alexandra Prokopenko: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Can Russia’s Militarized Economy Ever Return to a Civilian Model?

A painless return to the civilian model is impossible: no amount of fortune can override the laws of economics.

carnegieendowment.org

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Carnegie Russia Eurasia @carnegierussia.bsky.social · 23d

How did the White House end up brokering a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

In a new article for @foreignaffairs.com, Senior Fellow Thomas de Waal unravels how a shared rejection of Russian dominance in the South Caucasus drove both parties down "an unlikely road to peace."

Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 24d

Just published, my piece on the U.S. Armenia-Azerbaijan deal and its prospects. There is a lot of hard work still to be done, I argue, but the shared coincidence of interests that neither country wants Russia as a guarantor has been transformative. www.foreignaffairs.com/armenia/unli...

An Unlikely Road to Peace in the South Caucasus

How common cause against Russia enabled an American deal.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 27d

🎙️🎚️‼️
Your weekend podcast is here. I sat down with great Sergey Vakulenko to discuss the state of Russia's war engine: the oil and gas sector. Few people in the world new this domain better than Sergey. Tune in to @carnegierussia.bsky.social!
open.spotify.com/episode/2PZW...

Putin’s War Engine: How Healthy is Russia’s Oil and Gas Industry? With Sergey Vakulenko

open.spotify.com

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 28d

"Should PAS fall short of an outright majority, political instability would likely follow. Potential coalition partners are considered unreliable, leaving any post-election alliance prone to collapse." Balazs Jarabik on Moldova's upcoming vote: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Moldova Elections: Managed Stability, Fragile Politics

Should PAS fall short of an outright majority, political instability would likely follow. Potential coalition partners are considered either unreliable or politically compromised, leaving any post-ele...

carnegieendowment.org

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 29d

Russian drones crossing Belarus’s western border in one direction while a U.S. delegation entered from the other direction on the same day illustrates how little control Lukashenko has over his mission of ending his isolation, writes Artyom Shraibman: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Stray Russian Drones Test Minsk’s Attempts to Improve Relations With the West

Minsk’s modest progress in creating a more predictable and peaceful image could stall at any minute as a result of tensions and developments in the region or a change in mood by Putin or Trump.

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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · Sep 16

I was very glad of the opportunity to have a substantial conversation with @neweasterneurope.eu on the Trump deal with Armenia and Azerbaijan talkeasterneurope.eu/episodes/epi...

Episode 235: Behind the peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan

In this episode, Alexandra and Adam start off with some discussion on the news, including concerns over the upcoming Russia/Belarus Zapad 2025 militar...

talkeasterneurope.eu

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · Sep 16

Washington may have persuaded Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign a long-awaited peace agreement, but one month later it still remains unclear how much the U.S. is ready to invest to make it stick, argues Olesya Vartanyan: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

A Month After Historic Armenia-Azerbaijan Summit, Has Trump Secured a Lasting Peace?

Washington may have persuaded Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign a long-awaited peace agreement, but one month later it still remains unclear how much the United States is ready to invest to make it stick...

carnegieendowment.org

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