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Box Office Theory
@boxofficetheory.com
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- SUBSCRIBE: http://boxofficetheory.substack.com
- Theatrical Box Office Forecasts, Tracking, & Consulting
- Home of the BOT Forums
- Founded by @ShawnRobbins
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boxofficetheory.com
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Nate Bargatze's #TheBreadwinner ($15-19M+) Could Be a Sleeper Hit; Colleen Hoover’s #RemindersOfHim Early Outlook and More Updates

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#NateBargatze #BoxOffice
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Nate Bargatze’s THE BREADWINNER ($15M+) Could Be an Early 2026 Sleeper Hit; Colleen Hoover’s REMINDERS OF HIM Early Outlook and More Updates
Nate Bargatze has dominated the comedy and entertainment worlds in recent years with a far-from-overnight success story. How could his leap to the big screen perform?
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January 23, 2026 at 6:41 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: #Mercy ($8-10M+) Should Dethrone #Avatar ; Fathom’s #LordOfTheRings Anniversary Continues; NFL and Winter Weather May Be Problematic

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#BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: MERCY ($8-10M+) Should Dethrone AVATAR; Fathom’s LORD OF THE RINGS Anniversary Continues; NFL and Winter Weather May Be Problematic
A new #1 film may actually come to fruition for the first time in over a month, but American football playoffs and a significant winter storm could hold back much of the domestic market.
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January 21, 2026 at 7:17 PM
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: THE BRIDE! and HOPPERS ($15-18M+ Each); 28 YEARS LATER: THE BONE TEMPLE Trending for $15M 4-Day Start

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#TheBride #Hoppers #28YearsLater #TheBoneTemple #BoxOffice
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: THE BRIDE! and HOPPERS ($15-18M+ Each); 28 YEARS LATER: THE BONE TEMPLE Trending for $15M 4-Day Start
Early outlooks for the first of March's new release crop, plus updated expectations for this weekend's 28 YEARS LATER: THE BONE TEMPLE.
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January 16, 2026 at 5:49 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: #28YearsLater #TheBoneTemple ($20M+ 4-Day) to Dethrone #Avatar's 5th Frame ($17-19M+), #LordOfTheRings Anniversary to Stand Out for MLK Frame

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#BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: 28 YEARS LATER: THE BONE TEMPLE ($20M+ 4-Day) to Dethrone AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH's 5th Frame ($17-19M+), LORD OF THE RINGS Anniversary to Stand Out for MLK Frame
This MLK frame will the deliver the box office's first new #1 film since mid-December, while holdovers and a special Lord of the Rings event will serve as positive narratives.
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January 14, 2026 at 8:57 PM
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: #WutheringHeights ($50M+) and #Scream7 ($28-32M+) to Anchor February and Another Slow Winter Calendar

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#BoxOffice #JacobElordi #MargotRobbie #CharliXCX
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: WUTHERING HEIGHTS ($50M+) and SCREAM 7 ($28-32M+) to Anchor February and Another Slow Winter Calendar
Can WUTHERING HEIGHTS echo some of the previous decade's blockbuster romantic hits for Valentine's? Will SCREAM 7 overcome external discourse and the absence of young stars?
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January 9, 2026 at 5:28 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: #AvatarFireAndAsh to Rule 4th Straight Weekend; #Greenland2 and #Primate Counter for Post-New Year’s Business Against NFL Playoffs

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#BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH to Rule 4th Straight Weekend; GREENLAND 2 and PRIMATE Counter for Post-New Year’s Business Against NFL Playoffs
2026's post-holiday slate may lack major tentpoles in the near future, but (for now) the box office calendar is at least poised for a net-gain compared to the same window last year.
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January 7, 2026 at 5:43 PM
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Box Office 4-Day Weekend Forecast: AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH to Lead as MARTY SUPREME, ANACONDA, and SONG SUNG BLUE Bow on Crowded Christmas Frame

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#AvatarFireAndAsh #MartySupreme #Anaconda #BoxOffice
December 23, 2025 at 6:53 PM
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6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: ANACONDA, MARTY SUPREME and Christmas Week Updates; First Outlooks for SEND HELP and January Release Check-Ins

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#Anaconda #MartySupreme #SendHelp #BoxOffice
6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: ANACONDA, MARTY SUPREME and Christmas Week Updates; First Outlooks for SEND HELP and January Release Check-Ins
As 2025 winds down, brace for shifting forecasts in the type of crowded market that hasn't appeared during the holiday window for a few years.
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December 19, 2025 at 4:25 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH ($85M+), DAVID, THE HOUSEMAID, and SPONGEBOB Kick Off a Long Christmas Corridor

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#AvatarFireAndAsh #TheHousemaid #David #SpongeBob #BoxOffice
December 17, 2025 at 5:26 PM
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6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: #AvatarFireAndAsh ($90M+) Pre-Release Checkpoint, Plus Christmas Week Outlooks and Early MERCY Forecasts

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#TheHousemaid #David #MartySupreme #BoxOffice
December 12, 2025 at 4:32 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: ZOOTOPIA 2 and FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY’S 2 to Lead Again Before AVATAR and Friends Arrive for Christmas

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#Zootopia2 #FNAF2 #FiveNightsAtFreddys2 #TheShining #BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: ZOOTOPIA 2 and FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY’S 2 to Lead Again Before AVATAR and Friends Arrive for Christmas
One major studio release and two re-issues are on track for modest showings in what should be a relative calm-before-the-holiday-storm weekend.
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December 10, 2025 at 4:24 PM
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6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: #AvatarFireAndAsh ($95M+) Updates, Early Forecasts for 28 YEARS LATER: THE BONE TEMPLE, GREENLAND 2, PRIMATE, and SOULM8TE

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#Avatar #28YearsLater #BoxOffice
6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH ($95M+) Updates, Early Forecasts for 28 YEARS LATER: THE BONE TEMPLE, GREENLAND 2, PRIMATE, and SOULM8TE
2025's final weeks are coming into shape with expected volatility, while January 2026 looks like another up-and-down post-holiday market.
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December 5, 2025 at 5:27 PM
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#BoxOffice Weekend Forecast: FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY’S 2 ($44M+) and ZOOTOPIA 2 Set for Animatronics vs. Animals Battle Royale to Start December

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#fnaf2 #FNAFMovie #FNAF #Zootopia2 #WickedForGood
Box Office Weekend Forecast: FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY’S 2 ($44M+) and ZOOTOPIA 2 Set for Animatronics vs. Animals Battle Royale to Start December
Universal and Disney may be in for a weekend-long battle to determine who comes out on top of the box office to begin 2025's final month.
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December 3, 2025 at 5:35 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: ZOOTOPIA 2 ($125-140M+ 5-Day) and WICKED: FOR GOOD ($85-100M+) Set to Haul a Thanksgiving Feast

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#Zootopia2 #WickedForGood #BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: ZOOTOPIA 2 ($125-140M+ 5-Day) and WICKED: FOR GOOD ($85-100M+) Set to Haul a Thanksgiving Feast
It'll be impossible to match last year's record Thanksgiving corridor, but theaters and movie fans still have plenty to be thankful for on this long holiday weekend.
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November 25, 2025 at 11:32 PM
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6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: #Zootopia2 Updates, #FNAF2 ($35M+) and #AvatarFireAndAsh ($95M+) Pacing Off from Predecessors, & More Updates

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#FNAF #FiveNightsAttFreddys2 #BoxOffice
6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: ZOOTOPIA 2 Updates, FNAF2 ($35M+) and AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH ($95M+) Pacing Off from Predecessors, & More Updates
The end of 2025 remains strong thanks to a healthy crop of films on a diverse release slate, but will two fan franchises rebound from current pre-release trends?
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November 21, 2025 at 4:08 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: WICKED: FOR GOOD ($155M+) Hopes to Soar High Across Multiple Opening Record Books

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#WickedForGood #BoxOffice #Wicked
Box Office Weekend Forecast: WICKED: FOR GOOD ($155M+) Hopes to Soar High Across Multiple Opening Record Books
Topping WICKED's $112.5 million domestic launch a year ago is a no-doubter, but how high can the hotly anticipated conclusion fly?
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November 20, 2025 at 3:50 PM
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6-Week #BoxOffice Tracking & Forecasts: #Anaconda, #MartySupreme, and #SongSungBlue to Highlight Christmas Week Openers; #WickedForGood Continues to Sing in Final Pre-Opening Week

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#Avatar
6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: ANACONDA, MARTY SUPREME, and SONG SUNG BLUE to Highlight Christmas Week Openers; WICKED: FOR GOOD Continues to Sing in Final Pre-Opening Week
Fresh content will be in no short supply this holiday season as 2025 continues marching toward a possible $9 billion finish domestically.
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November 14, 2025 at 4:29 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: #TheRunningMan and #NowYouSeeMe ($14-15M+ Each) Too Close to Call; Can Either Overtake #PredatorBadlands?

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#BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: THE RUNNING MAN and NOW YOU SEE ME: NOW YOU DON’T ($14-15M+ Each) Too Close to Call; Can Either Overtake PREDATOR: BADLANDS?
The penultimate weekend before WICKED: FOR GOOD storms theaters could end up much closer between three films than anyone expected in recent weeks.
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November 12, 2025 at 5:05 PM
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6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: #AvatarFireAndAsh Targets $110M+ Domestic Launch in Early Outlooks; #WickedForGood + #Zootopia2 Check-Ins & More

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#TheHousemaid #SpongeBob #BoxOffice
6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH Targets $110M+ Domestic Launch in Early Outlooks; WICKED: FOR GOOD and ZOOTOPIA 2 Check-Ins & More
James Cameron's AVATAR franchise will again lord over the pre-Christmas weekend, but can FIRE AND ASH duplicate the same level of domestic success as WAY OF WATER?
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November 7, 2025 at 4:55 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: PREDATOR: BADLANDS ($24-26M+) Leans on Strong Reviews as the Latest Legacy IP Sequel Geared Toward Male Moviegoers

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#PredatorBadlands #BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: PREDATOR: BADLANDS ($24-26M+) Leans on Strong Reviews as the Latest Legacy IP Sequel Geared Toward Male Moviegoers
Dan Trachtenberg's well-received franchise sequel will provide some upside to the first full weekend of November as the industry awaits holiday tentpoles later in the month.
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November 5, 2025 at 11:00 PM
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6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: #WickedForGood Still Towering In Expectations, Plus #Zootopia2, #PredatorBadlands and #TheRunningMan Updates

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#BoxOffice
6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: WICKED: FOR GOOD Still Towering In Expectations, Plus ZOOTOPIA 2, PREDATOR: BADLANDS, and RUNNING MAN Updates
November and December tentpoles remain the great hope of an industry eagerly awaiting a fall box office rebound amid hopes for 2025 to crack $9 billion by the end.
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October 31, 2025 at 3:17 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: #BlackPhone2, Plus #BackToTheFuture, #Twilight, and #KPopDemonHunters Re-Issues Topline a Sleepy Halloween Slate

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#BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: BLACK PHONE 2, Plus BACK TO THE FUTURE, TWILIGHT, and KPOP DEMON HUNTERS Re-Issues Topline a Sleepy Halloween Slate
It's a scary Halloween frame for theaters as studios have avoided new major releases, positioning the frame as potentially the first since March without a film earning more than $10 million.
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October 29, 2025 at 4:05 PM
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6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Will FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY’S 2 ($50M+) Score the Rare Early December Tentpole-Level Debut?

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#fnaf2movie #FNAF #FNAF2 #Blumhouse #BoxOffice
6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Will FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY’S 2 ($50M+) Score the Rare Early December Tentpole-Level Debut?
Expecting returns on par with 2023's first adaptation may be asking for too much even with a theatrically exclusive window this time, but fans are clearly still excited for FNAF2.
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October 24, 2025 at 10:38 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: #Springsteen, #ChainsawMan, and #RegrettingYou Take On #BlackPhone2's Sophomore Frame

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#BoxOffice #Bugonia #ShelbyOaks
Box Office Weekend Forecast: SPRINGSTEEN, CHAINSAW MAN, and REGRETTING YOU Take On BLACK PHONE 2’s Sophomore Frame
Can "The Boss" and/or anime fans unseat Blumhouse's hit sequel from its late October box office throne?
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October 22, 2025 at 7:01 PM
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6-Week Tracking & Forecasts: Disney's #Zootopia2 ($115-130M+) Could Rival Moana 2’s $139.8M Thanksgiving Record; #WickedForGood Pre-Sales Formidable, Pacing for Potential $155M+

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#BoxOffice
6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Disney's ZOOTOPIA 2 ($115-130M+) Could Rival MOANA 2’s $139.8M Thanksgiving Record; WICKED: FOR GOOD Pre-Sales Formidable, Pacing for Potential $155M+
A three-month drought in animated releases and tons of goodwill for the original film could help Disney enjoy back-to-back Thanksgiving helpings with ZOOTOPIA 2.
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October 17, 2025 at 4:13 PM