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Stephen Schwartz

@atomicanalyst.bsky.social

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Editor/Co-author, “Atomic Audit: The Costs and Consequences of US Nuclear Weapons Since 1940” • Nonresident Senior Fellow, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists • Nuclear weapons expert (history, policy, costs, accidents) and tracker of the nuclear “Football.”

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · Jun 20

In the March 1981 issue of the @bulletinatomic.bsky.social, conflict resolution expert and Harvard Law School professor Roger Fisher described his “quite simple” idea to force US presidents to viscerally confront the lethal consequences of ordering a nuclear attack. books.google.com/books/about/...

An excerpt from Roger Fisher’s March 1981 article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, titled “Preventing Nuclear War”:

“My suggestion was quite simple: Put that needed code number in a little capsule, and then implant that capsule right next to the heart of a volunteer. The volunteer would carry a big, heavy butcher knife as he accompanied the president. If ever the president wanted to fire nuclear weapons, the only way he could do so would be for him, first, with his own hands, to kill one human being. The president says, ‘George, I’m sorry, but tens of millions must die.’ He has to look someone in the eye and realize what death is—what an innocent death is. Blood on the White House carpet. It’s reality brought home.

When I suggested this to friends in the Pentagon, they said, ‘My God, that’s terrible. Having to kill someone would distort the president’s judgment. He might never push the button.’”

White House Military Office Coast Guard aide Lt. Commander Woody Lee carrying the President Emergency Satchel (aka the “Football”) while walking next to President Ronald Reagan (who had recently undergone surgery on his left hand), near the White House, January 10, 1989.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 2h

Not that I am aware of (but I haven't conducted a thorough search). I think it's unlikely the Air Force would have tracked their health over time. However, it still might be possible to use official records to identify the firefighters on base at that time and then track them down one by one.

Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 3h

For more on this remarkable and nearly transformative top-level meeting, one that nevertheless presaged the end of the Cold War, see this excellent collection of once-secret US and Soviet documents published by the National Security Archive in 2006: nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEB...

A color photograph inside Hofdi House at the conclusion of the Reykjavik Summit of President Reagan talking to President Gorbachev. Reagan has a determined, somewhat angry look on his face as he talks to Gorbachev and gestures with his right hand. Gorbachev, his mouth open, looks like he is explaining something to Reagan. The two leaders are surrounded by their aides and translators, all of whom have serious looks on their faces.

A screenshot of the linked National Security Archive web page, “The Reykjavik File.”

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 3h

For more about that extraordinary and visionary proposal, see:

Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · Jan 15

Here is Gorbachev’s January 14, 1986, letter to President Reagan laying out the the rationale and objectives for his sweeping global nuclear disarmament plan, written less than two months after their first meeting at a summit in Geneva, Switzerland: nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/220...

A copy of the first page of Mikhail Gorbachev's January 14, 1986, detailed letter to Ronald Reagan.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 3h

It’s also worth noting that Gorbachev’s proposal at Reykjavik, about which Reagan was enthusiastic until Gorbachev’s insistence on limiting SDI R&D, was actually a pared-down version of a more comprehensive proposal issued earlier that year to eliminate all nuclear weapons worldwide by 2000.

Copy of a full-page advertisement on page A13 in the February 5, 1986, edition of the New York Times titled, “Nuclear Disarmament By the Year 2000” and featuring the lengthy, four-column text of a January 15, 1986, statement by Mikhail Gorbachev, whose official photograph appears at the top of the first column.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 3h

It’s worth noting (pun intended) that since Reagan launched the Strategic Defense Initiative in March 1983, the United States has spent more than $453,000,000,000 on multiple missile defense schemes, but to date we have not rendered ballistic missiles—or any other missiles—“impotent and obsolete.”

Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · Mar 23

Moreover, since fiscal 1962, the US has spent more than $531 billion on multiple ineffective missile defense schemes—including Safeguard, which was operational for less than four months during 1975-76 and utilized nuclear-tipped interceptors to protect 150 Minuteman III ICBMs in North Dakota.

An aerial color photograph of the Stanley R. Mickelesen Safeguard Complex at Nekoma, North Dakota, the only operational Safeguard site ever built. The Missile Site Radar is the pyramid-shaped building in the background at center. The small square launch area in the foreground contains launchers for 16 Sprint antiballistic missiles. The larger rectangular area adjacent to it contains launchers for 30 Spartan antiballistic missiles. The entire launch area is ringed by two layers of tall perimeter security fencing.

A color photograph of the US Army Homing Overlay Experiment (HOE) test interceptor (built by Lockheed Missiles and Space Company) on display at the National Air and Space Museum Annex in Fairfax County, Virginia. After being launched from the ground and reaching space, the umbrella-like 13-foot-long spokes would unfurl and the hit-to-kill 2,600-pound interceptor would be guided by onboard sensors to smash into a ballistic missile reentry vehicle carrying a nuclear war during its midcourse phase (between the boost phase into space and reentry into the atmosphere over a target).

A color photograph of the Boeing/Air Force YAL-1 test bed (a modified 747) for the Airborne Laser in flight. YAL-1 was built to study if a chemical laser mounted in its nose could destroy ballistic missiles during their brief boost phase into space. It was plagued by serious technical problems and never achieved operational capability.

A color photograph of then-Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and several other men standing against a railing next to an open missile silo at Fort Greely, Alaska, in June 2009, looking down at the Ground-Based Missile Defense (GMD) interceptor missile inside.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 3h

In other words, Reagan put all his faith in a dream that _might_ one day render ballistic missiles—and only ballistic missiles—“impotent and obsolete” over a concrete plan to actually achieve that goal within a decade. Reagan’s dream remains just that and nuclear weapons are still very much with us.

The cover of the April 4, 1983, edition of TIME magazine with the headline “Defending Defense: Budget Battles and Star Wars,” and featuring a large illustrated portrait of Reagan against a nighttime sky, with laser weapons firing on the left and ballistic missiles flying on the right, one of which has exploded after being hit by a laser beam.

A color illustration of the various planned components of the Strategic Defense Initiative in operation on and above the Earth, including ground-based radars, ground-and space-based lasers, ground- and space-based interceptors, satellite-based tracking systems, and orbiting mirrors (to direct ground-based lasers to their targets).

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 3h

Gorbachev had proposed and Reagan had already agreed to dismantling all nuclear weapons over a 10-year period, but Reagan stubbornly insisted there could be no legal constraints on his Strategic Defense Initiative, which he had been falsely assured was on the verge of a technological breakthrough.

An official color photograph from the Reykjavik Summit showing Reagan and Gorbachev sitting in a small carpeted room at Hofdi House around a small wooden table with their translators. Reagan is speaking to Gorbachev.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 3h

Today in 1986, unprecedented negotiations in Reykjavik, Iceland, to verifiably eliminate _all_ US and Soviet nuclear weapons collapsed when Ronald Reagan rejected Mikhail Gorbachev’s stipulation that research on ballistic missile defenses be restricted to laboratories (per the 1972 ABM Treaty).

A color photograph of presidents Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev leaving Hofdi House at the end of the summit. Reagan, waring a tan overcoat, looks stunned and a little angry. Gorbachev, waring a blue overcoat and a hat, looks disappointed, wistful at the enormous missed opportunity the summit provided.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 3h

The B-47 was one of four flying to Libya for an operational support exercise codenamed DARK KNIGHT. Those aircraft were likely carrying nuclear weapons as well. Why a complete bomb and an extra core? The available reports don't say. And, yes, the pit "birdcage" was for safe storage and transport.

Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 3h

The article continues, “However, against the remote possibility of contamination in the immediate area around the plane, some of the firefighters are now being checked for radioactivity.”

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 3h

However, this same-day, front-page report shows the destroyed aircraft and clearly states in its first paragraph that it was “carrying components of nuclear weapons,” adding, “Officials said there is no danger of explosion or general contamination around the Patterson field area ....”

A copy of the top half of the front page of the October 12, 1965, edition of the Dayton Daily News featuring a large headline at top right, “Globemaster Destroyed in Blaze at WPAFB,” with a subheadline, "Nuclear Cargo Aboard; Radioactivity Probed.” Adjacent to the article is a black and white photograph of the C-124C after the fire was extinguished. The plane appears gutted and the tail section has largely broken away from the rest of the aircraft and fallen to the ground.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 3h

Firefighters—who were initially unaware nuclear components were aboard—retrieved 140 undamaged neutron generators from the C-124C plus three flatbed truck loads of charred tritium reservoirs. The US Air Force later misleadingly claimed the aircraft carried only a small amount of conventional ammo.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 3h

Numerous nuclear weapons components were consumed in the fire, including 16 B43 Mod 0/1 conversion kits, an inert B53 training unit (left), two neutron generators, and two tritium reservoirs (example in right photo)—one of which ruptured in the fire, contaminating the aircraft and firefighters.

A color photograph of a very large silver-gray B53 gravity bomb at the Pantex Plant in Amarillo, Texas. On the left, two men in plain clothes stand next to the nose of the bomb, which is strapped to a large wheeled dolly. The back end of the bomb, which features four large protruding fins and contains a large retardation parachute, is on the right.

An official color photograph of a small metallic tritium reservoir, which resembles a bulb blower (used to clean camera equipment). The bulb portion of the reservoir is on the right. A thin metal tube with a tapered nozzle at the end protrudes from the bulb. No scale is given, but the reservoir is very small relative to the overall size of the bomb.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 3h

Early today 60 years ago at Wright-Patterson AFB near Dayton, Ohio, this C-124C Globemaster II was being refueled for a routine nuclear logistics mission when the fuel hose was accidentally disconnected. The aircraft caught fire and was destroyed. Only the wings and landing gear remained intact.

A color photograph of the US Air Force C-124C Globemaster II transport aircraft assigned to the Military Air Transport Service that was involved in this accident on the ground at an airport. The large doors to the cargo bay located below the aircraft’s nose, are open, and a long ramp leads up into the belly of the plane.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 18h

Absoposilutely.

Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 19h

If only there were a vaccine for stupefying ineptitude.

Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

Today in 1986, Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev met for the second time at Hofdi House in Reykjavik, Iceland. The two-day weekend meeting was technically not a US-USSR summit but a working session to discuss mutual reductions in strategic nuclear weapons.

But Gorbachev had a surprise planned …

A color photograph of US President Ronald Reagan greeting General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev at the front door of Hofdi House in Reykjavik. Reagan is wearing a brown suit and tie, while Gorbachev is wearing a grey suit.

A color photograph of Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev posing and smiling for photographers outside Hofdi House in Reykjavik. Reagan is wearing a brown suit and tie, while Gorbachev is wearing a grey overcoat over a grey suit.

A color photograph of Mikhail Gorbachev, left, and Ronald Reagan, right, sitting in armchairs talking to reporters in a room in Hofdi House with windows overlooking the sea. Small sculptures sit on the windowsill behind them and a small plant on a table is between their two chairs.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

The Mark-15, first deployed in 1955, was designed at Los Alamos and was the first “lightweight” US thermonuclear bomb (albeit one that still weighed 7,600 pounds). The Mark-39 was a physically similar but improved (and heavier) version of the Mark-15.

Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

Approximately half of the bomb burned in the fire. Although severely charred and mangled, all its components were identifiable except for the tail fins. The bomb was subsequently shipped to the Atomic Energy Commission’s Iowa Army Ordnance Plant in Burlington, Iowa, for dismantlement and disposal.

An aerial color photograph of the Atomic Energy Commission's Iowa Army Ordnance Plant in Burlington, Iowa, surrounded by farm fields.

A diagram oriented in the same direction as the preceding photograph showing the various buildings comprising the AEC's Iowa Army Ordnance Plant, with the buildings and ramps used by the Atomic Energy Commission denoted in green.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

The “birdcage” was retrieved intact before the wreckage was engulfed in flames, but the bomb was enveloped in flames and burned for about four hours, during which time two low-order conventional-high-explosive detonations occurred. The intense heat melted the plutonium pit inside the bomb casing.

A color photograph of a gray metal “birdcage” on display in a museum. A birdcage was used to store and transport a single plutonium capsule or core for early atomic bombs (before sealed pit designs were perfected and deployed). The spherical capsule was kept in the pressurized and neutron-absorbing cylindrical reservoir in the center. The welded tubing surrounding the reservoir kept capsules far enough apart from each other to prevent a criticality accident (an accidental, short-lived chain reaction that, while not a full nuclear explosion, could release enough radiation to kill or seriously injure anyone nearby).

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

The crash and fire killed the four men aboard the B-47. Inside the bomb bay, in ferry configuration, was either one Mark-15 (3.4 Megaton) or one Mark-39 (3.8 Megaton) thermonuclear gravity bomb. One plutonium capsule secured in a M-102 “birdcage” was also in the crew compartment.

A black and white photograph of a Mark-15 thermonuclear bomb strapped to a large wheeled transport dolly.

A color photograph of a Mark-39 thermonuclear bomb on display strapped to a transport dolly in an Air Force museum. The bomb is painted dark green with a yellow nosecone and yellow stenciled words and numbers on the side identifying the model, modifications, and serial number of the bomb

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

Here are more details on the cause of this completely preventable catastrophic accident:

A copy of the cover of the book “Boeing B-47: Strategic Air Command’s Transitional Bomber,” by C. Mike Habermehl and Robert S. Hopkins III. The cover photograph shows the nose and right wing of a B-47 bomber sitting on the ground glistening in the sun.

An excerpt from the accident report reprinted in the book “Boeing B-47: Strategic Air Command’s Transitional Bomber”:

“51-2139 B-47B
379th BW, Homestead AFB, FL
11th October 1957, Homestead AFB, FL
This B-47B (call sign Derby 39) was the last airplane in a flight of four scheduled to deploy from Homestead AFB to Wheelus AB, Libya, as part of Operation DARK NIGHT. Once on the runway the crew notified the tower that the right outrigger tire appeared flat. The tower directed the crew to hold its position while awaiting maintenance to evaluate the tire. Shortly thereafter the crew announced they would attempt the takeoff with the tire 'as is.' The takeoff was normal until the 6,000ft (1,829m) point when sparks appeared in the vicinity of the right outrigger gear. The crew reduced - then reapplied - power and became airborne in a nose high, right wing low attitude. It struggled to gain altitude, striking a dike 1,466ft (447m) beyond the end of the runway, began to break up and burn, and continued another 2,500ft (762m) before impact. All four crewmembers were killed. The investigation revealed that the outrigger tire was flat at the beginning of the takeoff roll, reducing the airplane's ability to accelerate properly. When the crew reduced power it deactivated the water alcohol thrust augmentation, and the remaining alcohol level was too low to restart the system. The airplane was carrying an unarmed 'open pit' nuclear weapon. The weapon core and its carrying case were …”

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

This morning in 1957, a B-47 departing Homestead AFB (about 25 miles south of Miami, Florida) for Wheelus Air Base, Libya, as part of a large alert exercise crashed and burned in a field roughly 3,800 feet from the end of the runway after the pilot chose to take off with a flat right outrigger tire.

A color photograph of a B-47 taking off using Jet-Assisted Take Off rockets (JATO). Large plumes of smoky exhaust pour from the six jet engines and the rockets.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 2d

That is one helluva take.

Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 2d

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