@samshirazi.bsky.social My final prediction was 58-42 for Spanberger. Did a big write up on the VA subreddit. Probably around 3PM VA time I'll know if I'm a moron based on Fairfax County voter turnout.
Did hear there's a big swing vs 2024 towards Dems in Hispanic Fairfax precincts based on samples.
Be very curious to see if the Iron Law Of Trafalgar stands strong and Spanberger does get 13+. Been a while since 2022 when I was playing with their polls.
@samshirazi.bsky.social Trafalgar just published a Spanberger +6 poll a few minutes ago as well. They have Miyares up slightly, though. If you eliminate undecided and acknowledge the Trafalgar rule, Trafalgar often gets the R value dead on and D value is fiddled low, that meants 56.7 to 43.3 = 13.4.
Chaz was kinda roasting them about this. But most GOP gaslighting polls will file a final poll that's not cooked to save their forecaster ratings or to use in marketing and pretend they never did all the bullshit polls first.
Seems liks this particular poll was not constructed with Trafalgar. Which may explain why Dems are doing so much better. Also less undecided and a margin of error drop for Sears. Honestly 50-40with 10% Charles/undecided is a great poll for Spanberger. Unlikely those voters go to Winsome Earle Sears.
Yeah I was hoping for a combined turnout vs margin or something but I suppose the precincts are pretty different from 2017-2020-2021 and we'd have to look at the 2024 pres margin to get the same ones.
Looks interesting in SWVA manually comparing some precincts at least but my eyes hurt.
Of course this is assuming something closer to 2017 in these areas which I think is fair, obviously population increases will happen as well of course. In any case I just don't see where they get the votes to counter Hampton Roads and the Capital Region even if we set Piedmont to even.
Gillespie netted 63,000 votes in SWVA in 2017. Not counting Montgomery. Another 63,500 from the Valley, minus the blue cities. So 126,500 total from their highest margin regions. They might get roughly the same again from Northern Neck and Southside. Again with any blue areas not counted.
Personally I'd expect her to make pretty decent net gains in the capital region, be pretty even in the Piedmont area, decent net votes in Hampton Roads, easily enough to overshadow SWVA, Southside, Northern Neck, and the Valley, comebine with the capital region.
On the low end of both vote share and turnout in NOVA you're getting ~275,000, and that's roughly 9.2% of a 3mil statewide turnout. I suppose she could end up going net negative in the rest of the state but that seems pretty unlikely unless the capital region is a disaster for her.
If e-day was only 50% of total votes, so 3mil, then 360,000 net votes out of NOVA would be 12% margin state wide. And 360,000 is not the ceiling from NOVA at all, just convenient for the math and pretty close to a median result. Could go as high as 450,000 in theory. Really depends on e-day turnout.
I'm happy to be corrected but if we assume say 3.6 million total votes, when her naive net votes from NOVA could easily be 360,000, that's already a 10% margin. Chaz seems to think we'll be *way* below 3.6mil since he says that turnout could be below 2021.
I mean, if you look at the turnout in NOVA, unless the vote shares backslide hard towards Republicans you'd expect massive gains out of NOVA for Spanberger. Even if the entire rest of the state were a dead heat she'd by up a minimum of 10% from NOVA alone.
Gonna do mine later today probably, more Dem friendly than Chaz. Be interesting to see how wrong I am. Really does seem like Spanberger is on track for 15-16 and as much as 20. If NOVA e-day turnout is 55-60% of total turnout anyways.
Yeah RK told me on Reddit that the wait times were not up to date at the end and so people who were hoping for some straggler votes were out of luck. Woulda been nice to break 20,000 for the round number but still a fantastic total to close out. Puts us ~30,000 IPEV for the last day of early voting.
Word is 19k so far, so we might break 20k after all the stragglers still in line are counted. Jim Scott got ~1125 which predicts over 20k though maybe they just had a better than average day today vs their usual share of the votes.
The rumbles of 20k+ are heating up but I wonder if I'm just giving too much credibility to evidence that supports the conclusion I wanted to be true. I started off the day thinking about 20k+ but I'm paranoid I'm just too optimistic.
Fairfax looking *good* today. Be very interesting to see if the last 3 hours and 30 minutes hit hard as the first 4 hours and 30 minutes. The wait times the Fairfax website are increasing on average since the morning and I've been told before that Saturday vote has more young people and later votes.
