Dr Andreas Krieg
@andreaskrieg.bsky.social
Author - Asso Prof King's College London / Royal College of Defence Studies (Global Strategy Program)
Fellow Institute of Middle Eastern Studies
Director MENA analytica Ltd
Interests: MENA, Gulf, Network-centric statecraft
Fellow Institute of Middle Eastern Studies
Director MENA analytica Ltd
Interests: MENA, Gulf, Network-centric statecraft
As Bibi arrives in DC:
"Now the #Gulf has to balance between an Iran that has been largely passive and reactive since October 7th and an #Israel that has been erratic, impulsive and hyper activist in pursuit of short to midterm security interests."
www.andreaskrieg.com/post/the-gul...
"Now the #Gulf has to balance between an Iran that has been largely passive and reactive since October 7th and an #Israel that has been erratic, impulsive and hyper activist in pursuit of short to midterm security interests."
www.andreaskrieg.com/post/the-gul...
www.andreaskrieg.com
February 11, 2026 at 12:51 PM
As Bibi arrives in DC:
"Now the #Gulf has to balance between an Iran that has been largely passive and reactive since October 7th and an #Israel that has been erratic, impulsive and hyper activist in pursuit of short to midterm security interests."
www.andreaskrieg.com/post/the-gul...
"Now the #Gulf has to balance between an Iran that has been largely passive and reactive since October 7th and an #Israel that has been erratic, impulsive and hyper activist in pursuit of short to midterm security interests."
www.andreaskrieg.com/post/the-gul...
"There is an agreement on a framework of a nuclear deal... Qatar and Oman believe that this can be a first step into something that in a first instance looks like the JCPOA 2.0 to which other elements can be added such as missiles. But it is tiny steps at the time"
youtu.be/3mZ1xHYJX1k
youtu.be/3mZ1xHYJX1k
"Slightly closer to diplomatic off-ramp with Iran than war this week"
YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg
youtu.be
February 9, 2026 at 2:58 PM
"There is an agreement on a framework of a nuclear deal... Qatar and Oman believe that this can be a first step into something that in a first instance looks like the JCPOA 2.0 to which other elements can be added such as missiles. But it is tiny steps at the time"
youtu.be/3mZ1xHYJX1k
youtu.be/3mZ1xHYJX1k
"The Saudis have a unique moment right now to lead the region, especially at a time when many actors feel increasingly alienated by the Emirates....the mindset and strategic culture of Abu Dhabi is fundamentally different. Under pressure, they push back — they don’t fold..."
youtu.be/bEBROI1f6NQ
youtu.be/bEBROI1f6NQ
January 23, 2026 at 8:13 PM
"The Saudis have a unique moment right now to lead the region, especially at a time when many actors feel increasingly alienated by the Emirates....the mindset and strategic culture of Abu Dhabi is fundamentally different. Under pressure, they push back — they don’t fold..."
youtu.be/bEBROI1f6NQ
youtu.be/bEBROI1f6NQ
"As @andreaskrieg.bsky.social from King’s College London, told Al Jazeera, this [Board of Peace] offers a “direct line to the White House” and “buys them insurance” against future exclusion."
www.the-independent.com/news/world/m...
www.the-independent.com/news/world/m...
‘We can do pretty much anything we want’: Trump’s peace board is absurd and worrying
Trump’s new enterprise is the clearest sign yet of his expansionist-interventionist intent – and however bizarre, we should take note, chief international correspondent Bel Trew writes
www.the-independent.com
January 22, 2026 at 5:33 PM
"As @andreaskrieg.bsky.social from King’s College London, told Al Jazeera, this [Board of Peace] offers a “direct line to the White House” and “buys them insurance” against future exclusion."
www.the-independent.com/news/world/m...
www.the-independent.com/news/world/m...
"@andreaskrieg.bsky.social has described the #UAE’s regional network as an “axis of secessionists.”
“Abu Dhabi is comfortable operating below the threshold of formal statecraft, building influence through a web of intermediaries"
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...
“Abu Dhabi is comfortable operating below the threshold of formal statecraft, building influence through a web of intermediaries"
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...
After Yemen rift, Saudi Arabia aims to oust UAE from wider region
Saudi Arabia, alarmed by what it sees as aggressive moves by its onetime ally, is working to counter the influence the UAE has built around the Red Sea.
www.washingtonpost.com
January 20, 2026 at 10:41 AM
"@andreaskrieg.bsky.social has described the #UAE’s regional network as an “axis of secessionists.”
“Abu Dhabi is comfortable operating below the threshold of formal statecraft, building influence through a web of intermediaries"
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...
“Abu Dhabi is comfortable operating below the threshold of formal statecraft, building influence through a web of intermediaries"
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...
@andreaskrieg.bsky.social adds "inside #Iran, collective action remains largely leaderless and networked: Local mobilization, social ties, workplace dynamics, and university ecosystems produce bursts of coordinated protest without an integrated command structure"
www.dw.com/en/albania-w...
www.dw.com/en/albania-w...
Albania: What role does the MEK play in the Iran protests?
Some 3,000 members of the opposition People's Mujahedeen Organization of Iran (MEK) are sheltering in Albania. It has been claimed that the MEK plays an important role in the protests in Iran. Some ex...
www.dw.com
January 20, 2026 at 9:12 AM
@andreaskrieg.bsky.social adds "inside #Iran, collective action remains largely leaderless and networked: Local mobilization, social ties, workplace dynamics, and university ecosystems produce bursts of coordinated protest without an integrated command structure"
www.dw.com/en/albania-w...
www.dw.com/en/albania-w...
My piece for @aljazeera.com
✍️
"Donald Trump has boxed himself in by promising to ‘help’ #Iran’s protesters. But he has few good options for military operations that he can control"
Looking at scenarios for US military strikes on Iran
www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/...
✍️
"Donald Trump has boxed himself in by promising to ‘help’ #Iran’s protesters. But he has few good options for military operations that he can control"
Looking at scenarios for US military strikes on Iran
www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/...
Analysis: Why a ‘quick and clean’ US attack on Iran won’t be easy
Donald Trump has boxed himself in by promising to 'help' Iran's protesters. But he has few good options.
www.aljazeera.com
January 16, 2026 at 1:55 PM
My piece for @aljazeera.com
✍️
"Donald Trump has boxed himself in by promising to ‘help’ #Iran’s protesters. But he has few good options for military operations that he can control"
Looking at scenarios for US military strikes on Iran
www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/...
✍️
"Donald Trump has boxed himself in by promising to ‘help’ #Iran’s protesters. But he has few good options for military operations that he can control"
Looking at scenarios for US military strikes on Iran
www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/...
@andreaskrieg.bsky.social has called the movement of the blocks a "tool for territorial engineering".
"By keeping the legal line on the map and the physical blocks hundreds of metres apart, Israel preserves the ability to shift where Gazans live, move and farm"
www.linkedin.com/redir/redire...
"By keeping the legal line on the map and the physical blocks hundreds of metres apart, Israel preserves the ability to shift where Gazans live, move and farm"
www.linkedin.com/redir/redire...
Israel moves Yellow Line deeper into Gaza, satellite images show
Israel placed and later moved control markers in three areas, with placed deeper inside Gaza than maps suggested.
www.linkedin.com
January 16, 2026 at 8:36 AM
@andreaskrieg.bsky.social has called the movement of the blocks a "tool for territorial engineering".
"By keeping the legal line on the map and the physical blocks hundreds of metres apart, Israel preserves the ability to shift where Gazans live, move and farm"
www.linkedin.com/redir/redire...
"By keeping the legal line on the map and the physical blocks hundreds of metres apart, Israel preserves the ability to shift where Gazans live, move and farm"
www.linkedin.com/redir/redire...
"I don’t think there’s such a thing as a decisive strike against Iran, because that would require a long, drawn-out military campaign — and I don’t think the Trump administration is ready for that.
youtu.be/KXWM4Sddjv0
youtu.be/KXWM4Sddjv0
What purpose does the massive US military presence in the Gulf serve? | Inside Story
YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg
youtu.be
January 15, 2026 at 7:40 PM
"I don’t think there’s such a thing as a decisive strike against Iran, because that would require a long, drawn-out military campaign — and I don’t think the Trump administration is ready for that.
youtu.be/KXWM4Sddjv0
youtu.be/KXWM4Sddjv0
As MbS enters the 3rd phase of his reign, #Saudi has a unique opportunity to build a KSA-centric regional order as it is pushing back against the #UAE's Axis of Secessionists
I look at what Riyadh needs to do to create a Pax Saudiana
#Sudan #Yemen #Somalia
amwaj.media/en/article/p...
I look at what Riyadh needs to do to create a Pax Saudiana
#Sudan #Yemen #Somalia
amwaj.media/en/article/p...
Pax Saudiana: The return of Saudi statecraft?
One useful way to read the recent escalation along Yemen’s southern coastline is not as a local quarrel over ports and militias, but as a signal that Riyadh now believes it has an opening to reconstit...
amwaj.media
January 13, 2026 at 8:45 AM
Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg
“An Emirati ‘exit’ in uniform does not necessarily mean an exit in influence,” he said. “If Abu Dhabi judges Yemen remains central to its broader maritime and geo-economic posture, it will retain levers through partners, finance, logistics, and political sponsorship.” - @andreaskrieg.bsky.social
January 12, 2026 at 10:26 PM
“An Emirati ‘exit’ in uniform does not necessarily mean an exit in influence,” he said. “If Abu Dhabi judges Yemen remains central to its broader maritime and geo-economic posture, it will retain levers through partners, finance, logistics, and political sponsorship.” - @andreaskrieg.bsky.social
Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg
“Saudi Arabia has fired what amounts to a warning shot across an ally’s bow: the era in which the UAE could build a separate sphere of influence inside Yemen, while sheltering beneath the label of a ‘Saudi-led coalition’, is ending” - @andreaskrieg.bsky.social
Yemen war: Mukalla strike shows Saudi Arabia has run out of patience with Abu Dhabi
Unprecedented attack caps years of tensions between Riyadh and the UAE over their differing regional visions
www.middleeasteye.net
December 31, 2025 at 2:22 PM
“Saudi Arabia has fired what amounts to a warning shot across an ally’s bow: the era in which the UAE could build a separate sphere of influence inside Yemen, while sheltering beneath the label of a ‘Saudi-led coalition’, is ending” - @andreaskrieg.bsky.social
My new piece on how #Saudi is enforcing red lines desperately trying to contain the #UAE's Axis of Secessionists across the region
For Riyadh #Yemen is not a chessboard, but its backyard
Abu Dhabi's foothold will be maintained by surrogate network
www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/yeme...
For Riyadh #Yemen is not a chessboard, but its backyard
Abu Dhabi's foothold will be maintained by surrogate network
www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/yeme...
Yemen war: Mukalla strike shows Saudi Arabia has run out of patience with Abu Dhabi
Unprecedented attack caps years of tensions between Riyadh and the UAE over their differing regional visions
www.middleeasteye.net
December 31, 2025 at 12:12 PM
My new piece on how #Saudi is enforcing red lines desperately trying to contain the #UAE's Axis of Secessionists across the region
For Riyadh #Yemen is not a chessboard, but its backyard
Abu Dhabi's foothold will be maintained by surrogate network
www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/yeme...
For Riyadh #Yemen is not a chessboard, but its backyard
Abu Dhabi's foothold will be maintained by surrogate network
www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/yeme...
"We might not like what the UAE are doing, how they're doing it. But they have made themselves indispensable in all these conflicts. I call it weaponized interdependence. They've created a web that is so all encompassing that you'll have to eventually speak to them"
www.patreon.com/posts/radio-...
www.patreon.com/posts/radio-...
November 24, 2025 at 1:27 PM
"We might not like what the UAE are doing, how they're doing it. But they have made themselves indispensable in all these conflicts. I call it weaponized interdependence. They've created a web that is so all encompassing that you'll have to eventually speak to them"
www.patreon.com/posts/radio-...
www.patreon.com/posts/radio-...
"This activity is extremely lucrative ," continues @andreaskrieg.bsky.social , " and generates a lot of money for the United Arab Emirates, but especially for the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces, who launder the gold. #UAE #RSF #Sudan
www.dw.com/fr/le-trafic...
www.dw.com/fr/le-trafic...
L’or, un enjeu stratégique pour les Émirats arabes unis – DW – 17/11/2025
L’or africain continue de nourrir des réseaux opaques. Alors même qu'ils ne disposent pas de mines d'or, les Émirats arabes unis sont devenus une plaque tournante mondiale pour l’or de contrebande.
www.dw.com
November 17, 2025 at 7:47 PM
"This activity is extremely lucrative ," continues @andreaskrieg.bsky.social , " and generates a lot of money for the United Arab Emirates, but especially for the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces, who launder the gold. #UAE #RSF #Sudan
www.dw.com/fr/le-trafic...
www.dw.com/fr/le-trafic...
Die Emirate sorgen dafür, dass es möglichst keine
Belege für eine direkte Verbindung zu den RSF gibt», sagt der Militärexperte @andreaskrieg.bsky.social. «Die Unterstützung wird stets so arrangiert, dass sie glaubwürdig geleugnet werden kann.»
www.nzz.ch/internationa...
Belege für eine direkte Verbindung zu den RSF gibt», sagt der Militärexperte @andreaskrieg.bsky.social. «Die Unterstützung wird stets so arrangiert, dass sie glaubwürdig geleugnet werden kann.»
www.nzz.ch/internationa...
Von Kamelreitern zu High-Tech-Piloten – wie Drohnen den Sudan-Krieg verändern
Drohnen sind das neue Machtinstrument in Afrikas Kriegen. Nirgendwo zeigt sich das so drastisch wie im Sudan. Eine visuelle Analyse über diese neue Waffe – und die Mächte im Hintergrund.
www.nzz.ch
November 10, 2025 at 8:56 AM
Die Emirate sorgen dafür, dass es möglichst keine
Belege für eine direkte Verbindung zu den RSF gibt», sagt der Militärexperte @andreaskrieg.bsky.social. «Die Unterstützung wird stets so arrangiert, dass sie glaubwürdig geleugnet werden kann.»
www.nzz.ch/internationa...
Belege für eine direkte Verbindung zu den RSF gibt», sagt der Militärexperte @andreaskrieg.bsky.social. «Die Unterstützung wird stets so arrangiert, dass sie glaubwürdig geleugnet werden kann.»
www.nzz.ch/internationa...
My new piece ✍️ on #UAE strategy in #Sudan
"Since the Arab Spring, MbZ has been consistent: tie local actors to UAE logistics and finance, reward compliance, punish betrayal, and cultivate multiple allies so you never lose your seat at the table"
www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/uae-...
"Since the Arab Spring, MbZ has been consistent: tie local actors to UAE logistics and finance, reward compliance, punish betrayal, and cultivate multiple allies so you never lose your seat at the table"
www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/uae-...
The UAE has taken Sudan to the brink. Now it must use its power to end the war
By doubling down on the RSF, Abu Dhabi expanded the brutal civil war. It should now leverage that entanglement to push for deescalation
www.middleeasteye.net
November 7, 2025 at 10:51 AM
My new piece ✍️ on #UAE strategy in #Sudan
"Since the Arab Spring, MbZ has been consistent: tie local actors to UAE logistics and finance, reward compliance, punish betrayal, and cultivate multiple allies so you never lose your seat at the table"
www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/uae-...
"Since the Arab Spring, MbZ has been consistent: tie local actors to UAE logistics and finance, reward compliance, punish betrayal, and cultivate multiple allies so you never lose your seat at the table"
www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/uae-...
"This is part of what I call Abu Dhabi’s ‘Axis of Secessionists’, a strategy that wins by not being defeated, keeping allies resourced and corridors open, and converting time into leverage," said @andreaskrieg.bsky.social" #UAE #RSF
www.newarab.com/analysis/how...
www.newarab.com/analysis/how...
How the fall of El-Fasher could cement Sudan’s partition
Marking one of the bloodiest chapters in the brutal 18-month war, the fall of El-Fasher to the RSF could permanently alter Sudan’s map
www.newarab.com
November 3, 2025 at 5:15 PM
"This is part of what I call Abu Dhabi’s ‘Axis of Secessionists’, a strategy that wins by not being defeated, keeping allies resourced and corridors open, and converting time into leverage," said @andreaskrieg.bsky.social" #UAE #RSF
www.newarab.com/analysis/how...
www.newarab.com/analysis/how...
Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg
For Palestinians, a line on a map can be the difference between life and death.
BBC Verify found Israel is controlling more of Gaza than agreed in the ceasefire deal.
Israel said anyone who crossed its "yellow line" would be “met with fire”.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
BBC Verify found Israel is controlling more of Gaza than agreed in the ceasefire deal.
Israel said anyone who crossed its "yellow line" would be “met with fire”.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Israel maintaining control deeper inside Gaza than expected, new boundary markers suggest
Israel has placed boundary markers up to 520m deeper inside Gaza than expected under the ceasefire deal with Hamas.
www.bbc.co.uk
October 23, 2025 at 4:30 PM
For Palestinians, a line on a map can be the difference between life and death.
BBC Verify found Israel is controlling more of Gaza than agreed in the ceasefire deal.
Israel said anyone who crossed its "yellow line" would be “met with fire”.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
BBC Verify found Israel is controlling more of Gaza than agreed in the ceasefire deal.
Israel said anyone who crossed its "yellow line" would be “met with fire”.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg
Multiple experts suggested the blocks were intended to create a "buffer zone" between Palestinians and IDF troops.
"This gives the IDF space to manoeuvre and create a 'kill zone' against potential targets" @andreaskrieg.bsky.social
"This gives the IDF space to manoeuvre and create a 'kill zone' against potential targets" @andreaskrieg.bsky.social
October 23, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Multiple experts suggested the blocks were intended to create a "buffer zone" between Palestinians and IDF troops.
"This gives the IDF space to manoeuvre and create a 'kill zone' against potential targets" @andreaskrieg.bsky.social
"This gives the IDF space to manoeuvre and create a 'kill zone' against potential targets" @andreaskrieg.bsky.social
"This is just a ceasefire that needs to be translated into a peace deal. Turkish boots on the ground will be important to move towards a multinational security force in Gaza," he explained, saying Turkey and Qatar would play a key role in "deconflicting" efforts.
www.yahoo.com/news/article...
www.yahoo.com/news/article...
Turkey, Qatar step up bid to protect Gaza truce
Turkey and Qatar intensified efforts to preserve the fragile Gaza ceasefire, with their leaders meeting in Doha Wednesday as diplomatic and intelligence chiefs coordinated to prevent renewed fighting,...
www.yahoo.com
October 23, 2025 at 7:52 AM
"This is just a ceasefire that needs to be translated into a peace deal. Turkish boots on the ground will be important to move towards a multinational security force in Gaza," he explained, saying Turkey and Qatar would play a key role in "deconflicting" efforts.
www.yahoo.com/news/article...
www.yahoo.com/news/article...
"As Prof @andreaskrieg.bsky.social, a Middle East security expert from King's College London, says: "It's worse than starting from scratch - here you aren't starting in the sand, you are starting with rubble." #Gaza
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
'Worse than starting from scratch': how big is the task of rebuilding Gaza?
BBC Verify investigates the damage done by two years of war, which could take $70bn and decades to repair.
www.bbc.co.uk
October 16, 2025 at 7:55 AM
"As Prof @andreaskrieg.bsky.social, a Middle East security expert from King's College London, says: "It's worse than starting from scratch - here you aren't starting in the sand, you are starting with rubble." #Gaza
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
On how the #Gulf states have generated strategic autonomy through #network centric statecraft, weaponizing connectivity and interdependence to extract global influence.
youtu.be/sejgGFDfrAw
youtu.be/sejgGFDfrAw
"The Gulf has generated strategic autonomy through network-centric statecraft"
YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg
youtu.be
October 15, 2025 at 9:54 PM
On how the #Gulf states have generated strategic autonomy through #network centric statecraft, weaponizing connectivity and interdependence to extract global influence.
youtu.be/sejgGFDfrAw
youtu.be/sejgGFDfrAw