Analytic Flying
@analyticflying.com
Independent economic & financial analysis on the Australian commercial aviation market.
YIMBY for YMML 16R/34L! 🇦🇺
www.analyticflying.com
YIMBY for YMML 16R/34L! 🇦🇺
www.analyticflying.com
NEW: Who the hell flies to Frankfurt anyway? A quick look at Lufthansa's Frankfurt and Munich hubs
Data doesn't lie, most people aren't really flying to Frankfurt, but it's one hell of a connecting hub!
www.analyticflying.com/p/chart-of-t...
Data doesn't lie, most people aren't really flying to Frankfurt, but it's one hell of a connecting hub!
www.analyticflying.com/p/chart-of-t...
Chart of the week #27: Who the hell flies to Frankfurt anyway?
A quick look at Lufthansa's Frankfurt and Munich hubs
www.analyticflying.com
January 22, 2026 at 8:58 PM
NEW: Who the hell flies to Frankfurt anyway? A quick look at Lufthansa's Frankfurt and Munich hubs
Data doesn't lie, most people aren't really flying to Frankfurt, but it's one hell of a connecting hub!
www.analyticflying.com/p/chart-of-t...
Data doesn't lie, most people aren't really flying to Frankfurt, but it's one hell of a connecting hub!
www.analyticflying.com/p/chart-of-t...
Why should you read our recent article about Qantas's Project Sunrise?
Well the CEO thinks you should! It'll be worth upgrading to a subscription just for this! It's long, but it might be the most important thing you read this year, well this week at least 🤣
Well the CEO thinks you should! It'll be worth upgrading to a subscription just for this! It's long, but it might be the most important thing you read this year, well this week at least 🤣
January 5, 2026 at 11:37 PM
Why should you read our recent article about Qantas's Project Sunrise?
Well the CEO thinks you should! It'll be worth upgrading to a subscription just for this! It's long, but it might be the most important thing you read this year, well this week at least 🤣
Well the CEO thinks you should! It'll be worth upgrading to a subscription just for this! It's long, but it might be the most important thing you read this year, well this week at least 🤣
🚨NEW: A few weeks back there was a lot of tongue wagging at United's new premium heavy B787-9:
It's not about a premium boom but rather payload restricted ULH routes → if they're forced to sell fewer seats, then they need to sell more premium seats!
www.analyticflying.com/p/uniteds-lo...
It's not about a premium boom but rather payload restricted ULH routes → if they're forced to sell fewer seats, then they need to sell more premium seats!
www.analyticflying.com/p/uniteds-lo...
United's low density B787-9: everyone is missing the point about payload restrictions
A few weeks back United Airlines published the seat map of their new low density B787-9 configuration, leaving tongues wagging for the exceptionally large premium, and by contrast small economy cabins...
www.analyticflying.com
January 2, 2026 at 6:36 AM
🚨NEW: A few weeks back there was a lot of tongue wagging at United's new premium heavy B787-9:
It's not about a premium boom but rather payload restricted ULH routes → if they're forced to sell fewer seats, then they need to sell more premium seats!
www.analyticflying.com/p/uniteds-lo...
It's not about a premium boom but rather payload restricted ULH routes → if they're forced to sell fewer seats, then they need to sell more premium seats!
www.analyticflying.com/p/uniteds-lo...
Yesterday we looked at a year in the life of a Qantas B787-9, tracking her through 2025. Today it's the turn of A330-300 Kununurra VH-QPA:
🔴She had an inauspicious start to the year, grounded in BNE until 15 Feb waiting for an engine
🔴After the late start she still managed 573 sectors, 101> B787!
🔴She had an inauspicious start to the year, grounded in BNE until 15 Feb waiting for an engine
🔴After the late start she still managed 573 sectors, 101> B787!
December 31, 2025 at 3:01 AM
Yesterday we looked at a year in the life of a Qantas B787-9, tracking her through 2025. Today it's the turn of A330-300 Kununurra VH-QPA:
🔴She had an inauspicious start to the year, grounded in BNE until 15 Feb waiting for an engine
🔴After the late start she still managed 573 sectors, 101> B787!
🔴She had an inauspicious start to the year, grounded in BNE until 15 Feb waiting for an engine
🔴After the late start she still managed 573 sectors, 101> B787!
A year in the life of a B787-9: we tracked Qantas's B787-9 VH-ZNA Great Southern Land through 2025. She's had quite a ride:
🔴472 sectors, incl 5 charters & 7 positioning flights, covering 2.6m nm & avg 5568nm/sector
🔴10 day transit in HKG for heavy maintenance, so she averaged 1.3 sectors/day
🔴472 sectors, incl 5 charters & 7 positioning flights, covering 2.6m nm & avg 5568nm/sector
🔴10 day transit in HKG for heavy maintenance, so she averaged 1.3 sectors/day
December 30, 2025 at 3:34 AM
A year in the life of a B787-9: we tracked Qantas's B787-9 VH-ZNA Great Southern Land through 2025. She's had quite a ride:
🔴472 sectors, incl 5 charters & 7 positioning flights, covering 2.6m nm & avg 5568nm/sector
🔴10 day transit in HKG for heavy maintenance, so she averaged 1.3 sectors/day
🔴472 sectors, incl 5 charters & 7 positioning flights, covering 2.6m nm & avg 5568nm/sector
🔴10 day transit in HKG for heavy maintenance, so she averaged 1.3 sectors/day
There's been lots of commentary about Finnair's new Melbourne flight. Part that struck us was how none is supported by any data, just lots of vibes. You'd be less surprised if you saw some data ...
December 21, 2025 at 1:36 AM
There's been lots of commentary about Finnair's new Melbourne flight. Part that struck us was how none is supported by any data, just lots of vibes. You'd be less surprised if you saw some data ...
🚨NEW: How to think, not feel about Qantas's Project Sunrise
It's provocative: tyranny of distance & inability to compete on cost with one-stop carriers means they don’t have a choice other than a “deal with the devil”!
Let us change your mind ...
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-to-thi...
It's provocative: tyranny of distance & inability to compete on cost with one-stop carriers means they don’t have a choice other than a “deal with the devil”!
Let us change your mind ...
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-to-thi...
How to think, not feel about Qantas's Project Sunrise
Project Sunrise, the much vaunted strategy by Qantas to fly non-stop from the eastern seaboard of Australian to London and New York finally looks like coming to fruition in 2027.
www.analyticflying.com
December 16, 2025 at 5:05 AM
🚨NEW: How to think, not feel about Qantas's Project Sunrise
It's provocative: tyranny of distance & inability to compete on cost with one-stop carriers means they don’t have a choice other than a “deal with the devil”!
Let us change your mind ...
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-to-thi...
It's provocative: tyranny of distance & inability to compete on cost with one-stop carriers means they don’t have a choice other than a “deal with the devil”!
Let us change your mind ...
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-to-thi...
🚨Does Qantas really hate Melbourne? Or rather is Qantas really that Sydney centric?
See our latest analysis which shows they've become less Sydney-centric while Melbourne has felt the love thanks to Jetstar. Real story is how they've come to love Brisbane!
www.analyticflying.com/p/is-qantas-...
See our latest analysis which shows they've become less Sydney-centric while Melbourne has felt the love thanks to Jetstar. Real story is how they've come to love Brisbane!
www.analyticflying.com/p/is-qantas-...
Is Qantas really that Sydney centric?
Alternative working title: Does Qantas really hate Melbourne?
www.analyticflying.com
November 19, 2025 at 3:22 AM
🚨Does Qantas really hate Melbourne? Or rather is Qantas really that Sydney centric?
See our latest analysis which shows they've become less Sydney-centric while Melbourne has felt the love thanks to Jetstar. Real story is how they've come to love Brisbane!
www.analyticflying.com/p/is-qantas-...
See our latest analysis which shows they've become less Sydney-centric while Melbourne has felt the love thanks to Jetstar. Real story is how they've come to love Brisbane!
www.analyticflying.com/p/is-qantas-...
🚨💥Absolutely wild Josh Cahill story ...
A few weeks ago he posted a scathing critique of Air Côte d'Ivoire, claiming airline & staff scammed him. Following a response from Ivorian Foreign Minister, he quietly deleted it!
TLDR 🧵
A few weeks ago he posted a scathing critique of Air Côte d'Ivoire, claiming airline & staff scammed him. Following a response from Ivorian Foreign Minister, he quietly deleted it!
TLDR 🧵
November 11, 2025 at 8:42 AM
🚨💥Absolutely wild Josh Cahill story ...
A few weeks ago he posted a scathing critique of Air Côte d'Ivoire, claiming airline & staff scammed him. Following a response from Ivorian Foreign Minister, he quietly deleted it!
TLDR 🧵
A few weeks ago he posted a scathing critique of Air Côte d'Ivoire, claiming airline & staff scammed him. Following a response from Ivorian Foreign Minister, he quietly deleted it!
TLDR 🧵
✈️ 🇦🇺 🇱🇰 A few weeks ago we saw a rumour circulating on regarding Jetstar starting a new route between Melbourne and Colombo. We typically take a dim view of new route speculation, but this one seems plausible. We decided to take a detailed look:
www.analyticflying.com/p/is-the-jet...
www.analyticflying.com/p/is-the-jet...
Is the Jetstar to Sri Lanka rumour credible?
We hate speculation and we really hate speculation surrounding new routes.
www.analyticflying.com
November 3, 2025 at 9:25 PM
✈️ 🇦🇺 🇱🇰 A few weeks ago we saw a rumour circulating on regarding Jetstar starting a new route between Melbourne and Colombo. We typically take a dim view of new route speculation, but this one seems plausible. We decided to take a detailed look:
www.analyticflying.com/p/is-the-jet...
www.analyticflying.com/p/is-the-jet...
Virgin’s missing million international seats a boon for Jetstar
Thanks to AFR for using our data! Data is available on our updated Capacity Tracker dashboard. Filter data by any combination of airline, city, and country of origin. Link in reply ⬇️
www.afr.com/companies/tr...
Thanks to AFR for using our data! Data is available on our updated Capacity Tracker dashboard. Filter data by any combination of airline, city, and country of origin. Link in reply ⬇️
www.afr.com/companies/tr...
Virgin’s missing million seats a boon for Jetstar
The gap made by the exit of the country’s second-largest airline from many overseas routes has been filled by Qantas’ low-cost carrier, new data shows.
www.afr.com
October 27, 2025 at 8:08 AM
Virgin’s missing million international seats a boon for Jetstar
Thanks to AFR for using our data! Data is available on our updated Capacity Tracker dashboard. Filter data by any combination of airline, city, and country of origin. Link in reply ⬇️
www.afr.com/companies/tr...
Thanks to AFR for using our data! Data is available on our updated Capacity Tracker dashboard. Filter data by any combination of airline, city, and country of origin. Link in reply ⬇️
www.afr.com/companies/tr...
Five and a half years! That's what is took Australian international airline capacity to recover what was destroyed in a few weeks by the COVID-19 pandemic.
We take a data driven look at just how things have changed. Who are the winners and losers?
www.analyticflying.com/p/five-and-a...
We take a data driven look at just how things have changed. Who are the winners and losers?
www.analyticflying.com/p/five-and-a...
Five and a half years!
That's what is took Australian international airline capacity to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic
www.analyticflying.com
October 21, 2025 at 10:55 PM
Five and a half years! That's what is took Australian international airline capacity to recover what was destroyed in a few weeks by the COVID-19 pandemic.
We take a data driven look at just how things have changed. Who are the winners and losers?
www.analyticflying.com/p/five-and-a...
We take a data driven look at just how things have changed. Who are the winners and losers?
www.analyticflying.com/p/five-and-a...
Huge milestone in today's BITRE data release: Australian international airline seat capacity finally reaches its pre-COVID level
www.analyticflying.com/p/chart-of-t...
www.analyticflying.com/p/chart-of-t...
Chart of the week #26: Australian international airline seat capacity finally reaches its pre-COVID level
This morning, BITRE released July 2025’s international aviation data, revealing an important milestone: international airline seat capacity has finally reached its pre-COVID level!
www.analyticflying.com
October 13, 2025 at 3:44 AM
Huge milestone in today's BITRE data release: Australian international airline seat capacity finally reaches its pre-COVID level
www.analyticflying.com/p/chart-of-t...
www.analyticflying.com/p/chart-of-t...
💥NEW ANALYSIS: Dismal prospects for trans-Tasman competition
A detailed look:
🔴Why Qantas & Jetstar's increasing dominance is bad
🔴Why Air NZ can't respond
🔴Why 5th freedom carriers won't respond
🔴And why Virgin have no incentive to respond
www.analyticflying.com/p/dismal-pro...
A detailed look:
🔴Why Qantas & Jetstar's increasing dominance is bad
🔴Why Air NZ can't respond
🔴Why 5th freedom carriers won't respond
🔴And why Virgin have no incentive to respond
www.analyticflying.com/p/dismal-pro...
Dismal prospects for trans-Tasman competition
Over the last few months we’ve seen Qantas and Jetstar come out swinging with new routes and capacity increases across its trans-Tasman network.
www.analyticflying.com
September 30, 2025 at 11:54 PM
💥NEW ANALYSIS: Dismal prospects for trans-Tasman competition
A detailed look:
🔴Why Qantas & Jetstar's increasing dominance is bad
🔴Why Air NZ can't respond
🔴Why 5th freedom carriers won't respond
🔴And why Virgin have no incentive to respond
www.analyticflying.com/p/dismal-pro...
A detailed look:
🔴Why Qantas & Jetstar's increasing dominance is bad
🔴Why Air NZ can't respond
🔴Why 5th freedom carriers won't respond
🔴And why Virgin have no incentive to respond
www.analyticflying.com/p/dismal-pro...
Finnair A330-300 (OH-LTU) spotted this weekend in the Qantas Silveroo livery getting ready for delivery as VH-QPL in the coming days.
Credit to Owen Yue Yijia & Jetphotos: jetphotos.com/photo/11832721
Credit to Owen Yue Yijia & Jetphotos: jetphotos.com/photo/11832721
September 29, 2025 at 12:42 AM
Finnair A330-300 (OH-LTU) spotted this weekend in the Qantas Silveroo livery getting ready for delivery as VH-QPL in the coming days.
Credit to Owen Yue Yijia & Jetphotos: jetphotos.com/photo/11832721
Credit to Owen Yue Yijia & Jetphotos: jetphotos.com/photo/11832721
Isn't it ironic how Sydney Airport are shifting the narrative about slots? It's as if they read our article from last month:
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-constr...
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-constr...
September 28, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Isn't it ironic how Sydney Airport are shifting the narrative about slots? It's as if they read our article from last month:
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-constr...
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-constr...
✈️🏉💰🇺🇸Scheduling fun & games: Qantas's Las Vegas NRL charters!
We worked out how Qantas are scheduling 8 long haul charters without empty legs!
www.analyticflying.com/p/scheduling...
We worked out how Qantas are scheduling 8 long haul charters without empty legs!
www.analyticflying.com/p/scheduling...
Scheduling fun & games: Qantas's Las Vegas NRL charters!
Last month, Qantas loaded several charter flights from Brisbane and Sydney to Los Vegas in February and March 2026 in support of Rugby League Las Vegas. This annual event is entering its third year in...
www.analyticflying.com
September 18, 2025 at 3:39 AM
✈️🏉💰🇺🇸Scheduling fun & games: Qantas's Las Vegas NRL charters!
We worked out how Qantas are scheduling 8 long haul charters without empty legs!
www.analyticflying.com/p/scheduling...
We worked out how Qantas are scheduling 8 long haul charters without empty legs!
www.analyticflying.com/p/scheduling...
Qantas's A321 XLR inaugural passenger flights 25 September. Rest of the schedule still to come!
QF645 SYD PER 10.35am 1.35pm
QF650 PER SYD 2.35pm 8.40pm
QF467 SYD MEL 4.20pm 5.55pm
QF484 MEL SYD 6.50pm 8.15pm
QF645 SYD PER 10.35am 1.35pm
QF650 PER SYD 2.35pm 8.40pm
QF467 SYD MEL 4.20pm 5.55pm
QF484 MEL SYD 6.50pm 8.15pm
September 11, 2025 at 11:16 PM
Qantas's A321 XLR inaugural passenger flights 25 September. Rest of the schedule still to come!
QF645 SYD PER 10.35am 1.35pm
QF650 PER SYD 2.35pm 8.40pm
QF467 SYD MEL 4.20pm 5.55pm
QF484 MEL SYD 6.50pm 8.15pm
QF645 SYD PER 10.35am 1.35pm
QF650 PER SYD 2.35pm 8.40pm
QF467 SYD MEL 4.20pm 5.55pm
QF484 MEL SYD 6.50pm 8.15pm
The Australian government has launched a consultation into an airline industry ombudsman, excluding EU style compensation!
Our analysis shows how compensation schemes won't reduce cancellations & delays. Instead, airlines will minimise compensation!
www.analyticflying.com/p/eu261-ther...
Our analysis shows how compensation schemes won't reduce cancellations & delays. Instead, airlines will minimise compensation!
www.analyticflying.com/p/eu261-ther...
EU261: there's no such thing as a free lunch
Note: we started working on this piece in December 2024 when there was a lot of discussion regarding the implementation of a flight cancellation and delay compensation scheme in Australia.
www.analyticflying.com
September 9, 2025 at 12:00 AM
The Australian government has launched a consultation into an airline industry ombudsman, excluding EU style compensation!
Our analysis shows how compensation schemes won't reduce cancellations & delays. Instead, airlines will minimise compensation!
www.analyticflying.com/p/eu261-ther...
Our analysis shows how compensation schemes won't reduce cancellations & delays. Instead, airlines will minimise compensation!
www.analyticflying.com/p/eu261-ther...
🚨NEW: Why regional jets are misunderstood and why they wouldn't have worked for Bonza
Smaller aircraft have a lower "trip cost", but higher costs per seat per kilometer, making it difficult for low cost carriers to use them to sell cheap tickets!
www.analyticflying.com/p/why-region...
Smaller aircraft have a lower "trip cost", but higher costs per seat per kilometer, making it difficult for low cost carriers to use them to sell cheap tickets!
www.analyticflying.com/p/why-region...
Why regional jets are misunderstood and why they wouldn't have worked for Bonza
A very common comment that you’ll come across when engaging in the popular aviation discourse is that route X to Y will be a good size for **insert type of regional jet**.
www.analyticflying.com
September 2, 2025 at 3:16 AM
🚨NEW: Why regional jets are misunderstood and why they wouldn't have worked for Bonza
Smaller aircraft have a lower "trip cost", but higher costs per seat per kilometer, making it difficult for low cost carriers to use them to sell cheap tickets!
www.analyticflying.com/p/why-region...
Smaller aircraft have a lower "trip cost", but higher costs per seat per kilometer, making it difficult for low cost carriers to use them to sell cheap tickets!
www.analyticflying.com/p/why-region...
Despite a 21 year head start, the 737 is about to be eclipsed by the A320 family in total deliveries. While this seemed unlikely as recently as 2018, is it a disservice to Airbus to frame this as a story about Boeing's failures?
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Airbus Is About to Eclipse a Record That Boeing Held for Decades
In 1981, the year Airbus SE announced it would build a new single-aisle jetliner to take on Boeing Co., the 737 ruled the roost.
www.bloomberg.com
August 17, 2025 at 8:58 AM
Despite a 21 year head start, the 737 is about to be eclipsed by the A320 family in total deliveries. While this seemed unlikely as recently as 2018, is it a disservice to Airbus to frame this as a story about Boeing's failures?
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
🚨Word on the street is Qantas's 🇦🇺Sydney → 🇳🇿Auckland → 🇺🇸🍎New York increasing to daily for NS26 (currently 5x/week)!
How much longer can/will Air NZ persist? Route building is a noble endeavour but burning money when fleet availability is scarce seems ...
Reminder below:
How much longer can/will Air NZ persist? Route building is a noble endeavour but burning money when fleet availability is scarce seems ...
Reminder below:
August 11, 2025 at 11:08 PM
🚨Word on the street is Qantas's 🇦🇺Sydney → 🇳🇿Auckland → 🇺🇸🍎New York increasing to daily for NS26 (currently 5x/week)!
How much longer can/will Air NZ persist? Route building is a noble endeavour but burning money when fleet availability is scarce seems ...
Reminder below:
How much longer can/will Air NZ persist? Route building is a noble endeavour but burning money when fleet availability is scarce seems ...
Reminder below:
Just how wacked was Bonza? Each day this week we'll share a finding from our analysis of the report to creditors:
1) Bonza incurred net losses of $134m on revenue of just $115m. That means for every $100 in ticket revenue it cost them $248 to fly!
1) Bonza incurred net losses of $134m on revenue of just $115m. That means for every $100 in ticket revenue it cost them $248 to fly!
August 11, 2025 at 1:19 AM
Just how wacked was Bonza? Each day this week we'll share a finding from our analysis of the report to creditors:
1) Bonza incurred net losses of $134m on revenue of just $115m. That means for every $100 in ticket revenue it cost them $248 to fly!
1) Bonza incurred net losses of $134m on revenue of just $115m. That means for every $100 in ticket revenue it cost them $248 to fly!
Just how constrained are Sydney Airport's slots?
It's complicated but insights from Sydney's first public Initial Coordination Report shows it's less constrained than you might have thought! Only 66% of slots are allocated compared to 96% at Heathrow!
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-constr...
It's complicated but insights from Sydney's first public Initial Coordination Report shows it's less constrained than you might have thought! Only 66% of slots are allocated compared to 96% at Heathrow!
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-constr...
How constrained are Sydney Airport's slots?
New insights from Sydney's first public Initial Coordination Report
www.analyticflying.com
August 7, 2025 at 5:02 AM
Just how constrained are Sydney Airport's slots?
It's complicated but insights from Sydney's first public Initial Coordination Report shows it's less constrained than you might have thought! Only 66% of slots are allocated compared to 96% at Heathrow!
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-constr...
It's complicated but insights from Sydney's first public Initial Coordination Report shows it's less constrained than you might have thought! Only 66% of slots are allocated compared to 96% at Heathrow!
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-constr...
🚨NEW: Ever wondered why airlines always seem to use really old aircraft on FIFO charter flights?
There's a good reason: it's all about the peculiar scheduling → flights concentrated on Tue & Wed → low aircraft utilisation!
www.analyticflying.com/p/why-does-q...
There's a good reason: it's all about the peculiar scheduling → flights concentrated on Tue & Wed → low aircraft utilisation!
www.analyticflying.com/p/why-does-q...
Why does Qantas acquire old aircraft for FIFO charters?
Over the last few months, Qantas have announced additions to their FIFO (fly-in fly-out) mining charter fleet in Western Australia.
www.analyticflying.com
July 23, 2025 at 11:18 PM
🚨NEW: Ever wondered why airlines always seem to use really old aircraft on FIFO charter flights?
There's a good reason: it's all about the peculiar scheduling → flights concentrated on Tue & Wed → low aircraft utilisation!
www.analyticflying.com/p/why-does-q...
There's a good reason: it's all about the peculiar scheduling → flights concentrated on Tue & Wed → low aircraft utilisation!
www.analyticflying.com/p/why-does-q...