Author | Lightnews

Alex V

Alex V

@alexvagus.bsky.social

210 followers 46 following 1.9K posts

**The greatest threats to freedom wear the crown of dictatorship. The downfall of society begins with a tyrant. Yet, throughout history, they fall prey to justice** I oppose dictators. If you side with them, don’t expect me to stand by you.

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Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 16h

By that logic, I could retroactively buy Apple stock in 2001, retire at 35, and thank the SEC for respecting my “intent.” Authority doesn’t exist backward in time. You either had it or you didn’t. Bondi’s stunt is like notarizing a forgery after using it — looks official, still illegal

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 16h

Good. Because you’re not up against a political party — you’re facing a cult built on fear, grievance, and obedience. It doesn’t debate ideas; it hunts dissent. And it won’t stop until loyalty replaces law.

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 17h

And lo, the New Yorkers did flee unto Jersey, for rent was cheaper and bagels were plentiful.

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 17h

Oh wow, a tattoo and a Substack link? Truly the rebel spirit of our time. Or the ultimate short-term marketing strategy. /end sarcasm

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 18h

This guy could find a way to blame Kyiv if his toaster short-circuited.

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 20h

Your honor, the defendant did knowingly and with malice aforethought launch a pastrami projectile at close range, endangering public order and clean uniforms alike.

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 20h

shouldn't the whole trial be held at a deli counter instead of a courtroom. ?

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 20h

When 50% of Russia’s KABs hit Pokrovsk, that’s deliberate obliteration. They’re erasing what they can’t hold, turning the city to rubble to mask failure. If they can’t capture it, they annihilate it — pure spite, not strategy.

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 1d

Don’t accept the invite — he collects trophies like campaign donations. He’ll grab the trophy, stand behind it for a photo op, then accuse the team of being ungrateful. --- it’s a hostage situation

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 2d

Trump thinks criticism is illegal, because the only law he knows is him. In his world, free speech is a crime, facts are fake, and worship is mandatory. The rest of us? We’re all felons now—armed with jokes, reason, and a middle finger. Because nothing scares a wannabe tyrant more than ridicule

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 2d

Would that be The Brooklyn Dodgers?

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 2d

Haha, you’re welcome — just crunching numbers, keeping the math honest while Ukraine does the real work proving it right. Math says resilience wins.

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 2d

my grandma use to say; "Árbol que nace torcido, jamás su tronco endereza" so there is that.

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 2d

Same story as Armata, Leader, and Husky—loud parades, no real fleet. Russia’s defense industry builds prototypes for propaganda, not production. Khabarovsk is another Potemkin weapon: one sub, big talk, zero impact. The empire of models and mock-ups pretending to be a navy

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 2d

I think my neurons filed for unemployment the moment they saw that crap.

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 2d

This is one of those moves that looks strong but signals weakness — Moscow is literally running out of Russians to fight its war, and now turning to the occupied population to fill the gaps. That’s the definition of regime fragility masked as mobilization.

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 2d

Bayesian impact:
Military Force Sustainability. Manpower extension, but low combat reliability, coercion raises internal and external instability risk.

Net model effect: +2 pp toward Putin exit probability ≈ 92%

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 2d

Superforecasting Model Note
Category: Military
Sub-category: Occupied Territory Conscription

Why it matters:
it’s strategically self-defeating: coercive conscription of occupied populations historically drives sabotage, desertion, and insurgency. It also deepens Russia’s war-crimes exposure.

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 2d

Rationale: continuing attrition without decisive progress sustains Russia’s loss-rate problem and further depletes offensive potential.

If continues for another week — Pokrovsk remains contested but uncollapsed — Bayesian impact BF should rise marginally positive for Ukrainian resilience

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 2d

Superforecasting Model Note
Category: Military
Sub-category: Frontline Dynamics

Why it matters:
Indicates positional warfare, not breakthrough. Russia remains stalled even with local numerical superiority, while Ukraine maintains initiative through counter-fire and small-unit flexibility.

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 2d

California: $4.62/gallon

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 2d

Bayesian Impact:
BF ≈ 1.25 strong positive signal for Ukrainian capability, morale, and coordination.

Net model effect: +2 pp toward Putin exit probability ≈ 90%.

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 2d

Superforecasting Model Note
Category: Military
Sub-category: Operational Adaptation

Why it matters:
It shows Ukraine’s continued ability to coordinate combined arms and intelligence assets in contested airspace — a hallmark of battlefield maturity.

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 2d

At this point, no speech, no slogan, no fake humility can change it: his word means nothing. When someone’s spent a lifetime turning lies into a lifestyle, “trust” isn’t coming back — not from Democrats, not from Republicans with a conscience, not from anyone who’s been paying attention.

Alex V @alexvagus.bsky.social · 2d

1 Noviembre: Día de los Angelitos, se honra a los niños fallecidos con juguetes, dulces y velas en los altares

2 Noviembre: Día de los Muertos, se recuerda a los adultos con comida, bebidas y objetos favoritos. Una celebración de vida y memoria, no de miedo. Flores de cempasúchil y familia reunida