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Trevor Larner @trevorl.bsky.social · 2d

And for those curious about where each team could finish, here are the probabilities of each place #NWSL

Trevor Larner @trevorl.bsky.social · 3d

New #NWSL Elo predictions! Playoffs are virtually locked up, but there is still jockeying for position among 3rd-8th. Orlando and Gotham FC are looking good for the home playoff games at the moment.

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Trevor Larner @trevorl.bsky.social · 9d

New #NWSL Elo predictions!

Louisville's win in the 6-point showdown against North Carolina puts their odds at 97% for the playoffs, whereas North Carolina falls to under a 1-in-4 chance.

Otherwise, the race for 3rd/4th is very close, with 3rd-7th separated by a projected 2 points.

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Trevor Larner @trevorl.bsky.social · 17d

New #NWSL Elo ratings! Louisville jump back into 8th, and Seattle's playoffs odds go above 90% despite their low rating.

Washington's odds of second are up to 95%, and Gotham is also looking strong for a home playoff game, but other slots are still up in the air among the top-9.

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Reposted by Trevor Larner

Jordan @sportsbystats.bsky.social · 17d

Gift Monday is special

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Trevor Larner @trevorl.bsky.social · 24d

#NWSL Elo predictions through week 21!

The Spirit are heavy favorites for 2nd (92%), but 3rd and 4th are still an open competition.

Further down, there are 3 teams fighting for the last 2 playoff spots. Louisville has are back in 9th after two straight losses, but their playoff odds are over 50%.

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Trevor Larner @trevorl.bsky.social · Sep 15

New #NWSL Elo predictions through week 20! Gotham has stormed into 3rd, and the race for the top 4 remains close. North Carolina is right outside in 9th, but the rest of the pack has fallen behind.

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Trevor Larner @trevorl.bsky.social · Sep 8

New #NWSL Elo predictions!

Dash's big win over SD brings them into 9th and the top contender to break into the top-8. Spirit is in a good place for second (84%), but the rest of the top-4 remains wide open. Bay's playoff hopes are fading despite some strong performances post-break.

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Trevor Larner @trevorl.bsky.social · Sep 3

"the NWSL are reluctant to see such a key player leave" this is your fault with the restrictive salary cap!? Silver lining is maybe this will be the wakeup call the league needs to loosen the rules.

Tom Garry @tomjgarry.bsky.social · Sep 3

Update: Alyssa Thompson is understood to have said goodbye to her Angel City team-mates and is determined to join Chelsea before the deadline, but the two clubs are still trying to thrash out a deal. Both Angel City and the NWSL are reluctant to see such a key player leave. #ChelseaFCW #USWNT

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Trevor Larner @trevorl.bsky.social · Sep 2

New #NWSL Elo rest of season predictions!

Gotham 📈with a big win over Orlando; their team rating is now 3rd best, behind KC and Washington. Angel City's win helps their odds (Thompson loss not taken into account), but they're still on the outside. The Reign are faltering towards the playoff line.

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Trevor Larner @trevorl.bsky.social · Aug 28

Thompson just re-signed so Angel City is well within their right to tell her and Chelsea to kick rocks. It sorta feels like this is about a potential transfer fee (another thing the NWSL needs to fix).

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Reposted by Trevor Larner

Justin Horneker @hornekerjustin.bsky.social · Aug 28

Angel City can not do this if they want to truly become a global club

Tom Garry @tomjgarry.bsky.social · Aug 28

Exclusive: Chelsea have made a formal approach to Angel City regarding the United States winger Alyssa Thompson, @sport.theguardian.com understands. No fee agreed yet. The WSL transfer window closes in one week. More here... #BarclaysWSL #ChelseaFCW #NWSL www.theguardian.com/football/202...

Chelsea hoping to sign Angel City’s 20-year-old USA winger Alyssa Thompson

Women’s Super League champions want to add a top-class winger to their team before they start their title defence

www.theguardian.com

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Trevor Larner @trevorl.bsky.social · Aug 25

#NWSL Elo predictions through Sunday's games!

Spirit jump into 2nd and Orlando down to 4th as they are stuck in a run of poor form. The table is close from 7th-11th, with all 5 teams with a legitimate shot at making the playoffs. Reign's rating is falling as their performances are faltering a bit.

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Trevor Larner @trevorl.bsky.social · Aug 23

She was added as a late addition to the injury report as questionable. Probably isn't serious and are just being precautious considering her midweek minutes hopefully?

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Trevor Larner @trevorl.bsky.social · Aug 20

#NWSL Elo-based rest of season predictions through week 16!

Besides the last playoff spot which remains tight, the battle for second is quite interesting. Orlando is favored at 38%, with the Spirit at 28%, Wave at 23%, and Portland at 8%.

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Reposted by Trevor Larner

Justin Horneker @hornekerjustin.bsky.social · Aug 11

Really puts the Current’s dominance into perspective

Trevor Larner @trevorl.bsky.social · Aug 11

#NWSL Elo predictions through Sunday's games!

The Thorns jump the Wave into 4th, but the table stays mostly steady. Courage and Bay are the teams on the outside right now that still have a shot per the model.

Also, KC is projected to get 63 points now, comfortably more than Orlando's 60 last year.

Projected NWSL Table

1. Kansas City Current, 63 points
2. Orlando Pride, 45 points
3. Washington Spirit, 46 points
4. Portland Thorns, 43 points
5. San Diego Wave, 42 points
6. Racing Louisville, 38 points
7. Seattle Reign, 37 points
8. Gotham FC, 36 points
9. North Carolina Courage, 34 points
10. Bay FC, 33 points
11. Angel City FC, 28 points
12. Houston Dash, 25 points
13. Chicago Stars, 17 points
14. Utah Royals, 15 points

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Trevor Larner @trevorl.bsky.social · Aug 11

The Current are also favorites for the title over the rest of the field, which is truly incredible considering the randomness that the playoffs provide.

Trevor Larner @trevorl.bsky.social · Aug 11

#NWSL Elo predictions through Sunday's games!

The Thorns jump the Wave into 4th, but the table stays mostly steady. Courage and Bay are the teams on the outside right now that still have a shot per the model.

Also, KC is projected to get 63 points now, comfortably more than Orlando's 60 last year.

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Trevor Larner @trevorl.bsky.social · Aug 4

New #NWSL ELO predictions through MW 14!

The table is shaken up a little, but the overall picture is similar to before the break. The last playoff spot is a toss up between Gotham and North Carolina Courage right now, with Bay FC still holding an outside chance.

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Reposted by Trevor Larner

andré @838carlisle.bsky.social · Jul 8

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Trevor Larner @trevorl.bsky.social · Jun 23

#NWSL ELO predictions halfway through the season!

Shield is all but wrapped up, but the rest of the table is very intriguing with only 6 points separating 3rd and 9th.

Top teams at the break: Current, Pride, Thorns (!), Racing (!!), Gotham, Spirit.

Chance for summer signings to make a difference.

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Trevor Larner @trevorl.bsky.social · Jun 16

Week 11 #NWSL predictions!

Orlando is the only team with any shot of catching Kansas City, and that's looking less likely every week.

The race for the other two top-4 spots is tight, with the Spirit & Wave having the inside edge right now.

North Carolina into 8th after their stoppage time win.

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Trevor Larner @trevorl.bsky.social · Jun 9

Week 11 #nwsl ELO predictions! Louisville into 6th on average and in a strong position for their first ever playoff appearance (80%). Despite their table position, Gotham is still likely to make the playoffs, but it's close from 7th to 11th.

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Trevor Larner @trevorl.bsky.social · Jun 8

This feels like the weekend to create Spirit > DCU in the city

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