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Reposted by Johnny K

SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Alerts (UNOFFICIAL) @spc-storms.nws-bot.us · 7h

SPC Tornado Watch 627
⛈️
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY🌪️
Additional Details Here.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 627
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
745 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Arkansas
Northeast Louisiana
Central and Southern Mississippi

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 745 PM
until 300 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Increasing low-level moisture and strengthening low-level
winds this evening will support the potential for supercells capable
of a tornado in addition to the potential for damaging winds/some
hail.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Greenwood
MS to 15 miles south southeast of Natchez MS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 624...WW 625...WW 626...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23030.

...Guyer

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Johnny K @stormchaser4850.bsky.social · 10h

Earlier radar-CONFIRMED #tornado in Hot Spring County #Arkansas ( #ARwx ) Saturday afternoon (October 18) in what is the FIRST organized severe threat of the Fall season #wx #wxsky

(THV11)-TV: "We have a tornado. We had a touchdown. We had a brief touchdown."

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Johnny K @stormchaser4850.bsky.social · 12h

( #NWSSPC): A #Tornado WATCH is in effect until 9 PM CDT Saturday night (10/18) for the ArkLaTex region. A couple of #tornadoes as well as damaging winds and large hail are possible through the afternoon and into the early evening. #wx #wxsky

Reposted by Johnny K

Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 19h

Watch this! A wall of impenetrable wind shear across the SE builds/ intensifies even further south, suppressing our Caribbean system, squeezing it into a corner. This is likely a saving grace for FL. System will be flattened & forced west or east, unless it’s able to wait out long enough.

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Reposted by Johnny K

National Hurricane Center Bot @nhcbot.bsky.social · 19h

Oct 18 8am EDT - A tropical wave about 800 miles east of the #WindwardIslands is moving quickly westward and is expected to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Windward Islands Sunday-Sunday night. Gradual development is possible in the #C... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1979517794052890740

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Johnny K @stormchaser4850.bsky.social · 20h

7 am EDT/6 am CDT Saturday morning (October 18) #USwx #TEMPERATURES #wx #wxsky

Johnny K @stormchaser4850.bsky.social · 1d

Aerial views of devastation across parts of western #Alaska ( #AKwx ) in the aftermath of a destructive STORM SURGE from what was Typhoon Halong last weekend (October 11-12) #wx #wxsky

(AKNewsNow )-TV: "Entire coastlines reshaped. Homes ripped from their foundations."

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Reposted by Johnny K

Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 1d

Wall of Wind Shear!
Now this is a sight to see. Models coming in HOT on wind shear for the next two weeks. IF this verifies, this is an all out ban on hurricanes for the Gulf! A hurricane blockade, if you will…
1/

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Johnny K @stormchaser4850.bsky.social · 1d

( #NWSSPC): Organized severe weather is expected this Saturday (10/18). Damaging winds, a few #tornadoes, and #hail may occur. Stay weather aware during the afternoon/evening #ARwx #MSwx #OKwx #TXwx #TNwx #KYwx #MOwx #ILwx #LAwx #wx #wxsky

Reposted by Johnny K

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 1d

A severe storm threat is in place for more than 45 million people from northeast Texas to the Ohio River Valley on Saturday.

💨 Damaging winds
🌪️ A few tornadoes &
🧊 Hail are all possible

There is time today to make sure you are prepared. Visit weather.gov/safety for more.

Map showing that a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms is in place from northeast Texas to the Ohio River Valley on Saturday October 18, 2025. This includes cities like Shreveport, LA; Little Rock, Arkansas; Memphis, TN; Springfield, MO; and Paducah, KY. The severe storm hazards include damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and hail.

Storm Planning Timeline graphic giving tips on what people can do the day before severe storms strike like adjust plans, make sure your phone can receive Wireless Emergency Alerts, and ensure that your storm shelter is clean and accessible.

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Reposted by Johnny K

National Hurricane Center Bot @nhcbot.bsky.social · 1d

8 am EDT - A tropical wave is located over the central tropical Atlantic. Gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of development, this system is ex... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1979152231233421753

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Johnny K @stormchaser4850.bsky.social · 1d

7 am EDT/6 am CDT Friday morning (October 17) #USwx #TEMPERATURES #wx #wxsky

Reposted by Johnny K

SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Alerts (UNOFFICIAL) @spc-storms.nws-bot.us · 2d

SPC Oct 17, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS🌪️
Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across parts of
the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.
Damaging winds, a few tornadoes and hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough over the central US is forecast to deepen
throughout Saturday as several peripheral shortwave features
coalesce over the central MS Valley. The most prominent of these
features will start the period over the southern Rockies before
phasing with the broader trough across the southern Plains Saturday
night. A powerful 100+ kt mid-level jet exiting the central
Rockies/High Plains will round the base of the consolidated trough
helping to rapidly deepen a surface low over the OH Valley and Lower
Great Lakes. A cold front with strong southerly flow ahead of it
will sweep eastward from the OH/MS Valleys into the Mid South
overnight supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms.

...Ohio Valley to the Ozarks...
Mid-level ascent with an embedded perturbation will expand over the
slow-moving cold front initially positioned from the Ozarks to the
Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley early Saturday. Southerly flow will
allow for substantial moistening as low to mid 60s F surface
dewpoints move northward across MO/IL, into western KY and OH and
eventually Lower MI. Continued low-level warm advection should
result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms along the front by mid
afternoon into the evening. While buoyancy should be limited
(500-1000 J/kg) owing to increasing storm coverage and cloud cover,
elongated mid/upper-level hodographs with largely unidirectional
shear will favor some potential for organized short line segments.
This activity should generally become more organized into the
afternoon/evening as the cold front strengthens and surges eastward
as the upper trough and surface low organize. This will support a
risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a couple embedded tornadoes
should a more coherent QLCS develop and persist overnight.

...Southern Plains to the Mid MS Valley...
Ahead of the primary southern stream shortwave trough, rich
low-level moisture will advect northward across parts of TX/OK into
the central and lower MS Valley. While some potential exists for
early morning convection to modulate the environment, current
guidance suggests diurnal destabilization (MLCAPE ~ 2000 J/kg) is
likely ahead of surface trough trailing the developing low farther
north. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the
afternoon from northern AR into eastern OK and North TX with the
potential for supercell structures capable of damaging gusts and
hail initially.

With time, the surface cold front over the southern Plains should
begin to surge eastward as the advancing shortwave trough phases
with the strengthening upper trough. Vertical shear will increase
substantially as the mid-level jet streak noses into the Mid South
fostering strong low-level mass response. The cold front will likely
outpace and overtake the surface trough and ongoing convection
supporting rapid upscale growth into a squall line across the
central MS Valley Saturday evening into the early overnight hours.
While uncertainty about the degree of instability given the
overnight timing remains, strengthening low-level wind fields and
mid 60s F dewpoints may delay boundary-layer decoupling long enough
to support a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat overnight as
the QLCS moves eastward.

..Lyons.. 10/17/2025

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Reposted by Johnny K

Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 2d

A hurricane landfall on the Gulf Coast is very rare in late October and November, but not unheard of.
This is a look at all storms that were hurricanes in their lifetime since 1970 from October 24th - the end of November in the Gulf. 1/

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Reposted by Johnny K

Chris Bianchi @bianchiweather.bsky.social · 2d

This is the 2nd-latest tornado warning on record in the state of Colorado.

#COwx

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Reposted by Johnny K

Science X / Phys.org @sciencex.bsky.social · 2d

Projections indicate that future hurricane-induced power outages will most severely impact Georgia and northern Florida, disproportionately affecting Hispanic, non-white, and low-income populations. doi.org/g965b7

Analysis details the where, and who, of increased hurricane power outages in the future

Georgia and northern Florida are likely to be hardest hit by increasing hurricane-induced power outages along the Atlantic coast in the future, with Hispanic, non-white and low-income populations most affected, according to new research led by the University of Michigan.

phys.org

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Reposted by Johnny K

National Hurricane Center @nhc-atlantic.extwitter.link · 2d

2 pm EDT - A tropical wave over the tropical central Atlantic could slowly develop when it reaches the central portion of the Caribbean Sea by the middle part of next week. Visit http://hurricanes.gov for updates. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G3ZgN1xW0AAvTS2.png

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Reposted by Johnny K

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 2d

NOAA’s National Weather Service Winter Outlook has been released.

This outlook shows the likely temperature and precipitation the U.S. could experience during meteorological winter (December 1, 2025 through February 28, 2026) and drought conditions through January 31, 2026.

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Reposted by Johnny K

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 2d

A system developing across the Plains may cause locally severe weather in W Kansas and SW Nebraska today, before pushing into Oklahoma, Kansas, & Missouri Friday. Saturday, there will be a threat for tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and hail in parts of the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks & mid Mississippi Valley.

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Johnny K @stormchaser4850.bsky.social · 2d

( #NWSLittleRock): #Arkansas has a Slight Risk for severe weather on Saturday (10/18). Storms expected to develop near the AR/OK border early Saturday afternoon and gradually track from west to east across the state. All hazards possible: damaging #winds, large #hail and a few #tornadoes #ARwx #wx

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Johnny K @stormchaser4850.bsky.social · 2d

7 am EDT/6 am CDT Thursday morning (October 16) #USwx #TEMPERATURES #wx #wxsky

Reposted by Johnny K

SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Alerts (UNOFFICIAL) @spc-storms.nws-bot.us · 3d

SPC Oct 16, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ARK-LA-TEX🌪️
Additional Details Here.

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ARK-LA-TEX...OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday across parts of
the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A threat for
tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and hail is expected to develop from
the late morning into the overnight.

...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
A large-scale mid-level trough will move across the Great Plains on
Saturday, as an associated jet streak moves into the Ozarks.
Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing just ahead of the
trough at the start of the period, from eastern Oklahoma into
central Missouri. To the south and east of this activity, moderate
instability is expected to develop during the morning over much of
the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. As surface temperatures warm across the
moist sector, convective coverage is forecast to gradually increase.
An MCS appears likely to form during the afternoon, with a
relatively large cluster of storms moving eastward across southern
Missouri, Arkansas and northern Louisiana. The MCS is expected to
become organized and pose a severe threat across the region.

Ahead of the MCS, forecast soundings during the mid afternoon have
MLCAPE peaking between 1500 and 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the
50 to 55 knot range. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to
increase to about 250 m2/s2 near the low-level jet in the late
afternoon. This should support supercell development with tornado
potential. Storms that remain discrete and interact with the
low-level jet will have the greatest potential for tornadoes.
Supercells should also be capable of large hail. Once the MCS
becomes organized, a transition to linear mode could occur. If this
were to happen, then the wind-damage threat would increase, and
could become the greatest threat. Any severe threat should persist
through the evening, and possibly into the early overnight period,
as the MCS moves eastward across the central Gulf Coast states and
Tennessee Valley.

...Lower Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes...
A mid-level trough will move across the Great Plains on Saturday, as
a belt of southwesterly flow remains from the mid Mississippi Valley
into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, and Great
Lakes region. A corridor of low-level moisture will be present ahead
of the front with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F. This
should allow for weak destabilization by afternoon. Thunderstorms
will develop along parts of the front, and move eastward into the
moist airmass. The models differ markedly on how much instability
will develop across this moist airmass, which adds considerable
uncertainty into the forecast. In spite of this, the combination of
instability and moderate deep-layer shear should be great enough for
an isolated severe threat. Line segments would be favored to produce
damaging wind gusts. A few rotating storms will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 10/16/2025

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Reposted by Johnny K

Chris Bianchi @bianchiweather.bsky.social · 3d

Late night mid-October thunderstorms in the Denver metro area because why not

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Reposted by Johnny K

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 3d

So far this Atlantic hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center's track forecast errors have been really close to average... but the intensity errors have been decidedly larger.
bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2025/10/lore...

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Reposted by Johnny K

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 3d

An atmospheric river event favors increased chances of stormy weather over the Western U.S. during late October.

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