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Stephen Sutton-Brown

@srbrown70.bsky.social

2.8K followers 120 following 1.7K posts

Braves, heat maps, cars, tractors, and music Creator of StuffPro and Arsenal Metrics at Baseball Prospectus He / him

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Stephen Sutton-Brown @srbrown70.bsky.social · Jan 17

I have never been more excited to release an article: Introducing BPro’s new Arsenal Metrics! www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

Introducing BP's new Arsenal Metrics | Baseball Prospectus

A new way at quantifying not just individual pitches, but how they work together.

www.baseballprospectus.com

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Stephen Sutton-Brown @srbrown70.bsky.social · 10h

forks and slurves, using statcast tags

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Stephen Sutton-Brown @srbrown70.bsky.social · 10h

describe some of what the models are "seeing" beyond just raw stuff, and two need to not be pitcher-agnostic to add predictive value to these types of models. IOW: Is this pitch more or less deceptive than expected due to who threw it and what their arsenal looks like?

Stephen Sutton-Brown @srbrown70.bsky.social · 10h

One thing that I can't remember if I've said explicitly: Since working on modeling pitch detection I've found that current Stuff and Pitching models do a good job at "understanding" tunneling and deception at the population level. Tunneling and deception metrics thus, one, help

Stephen Sutton-Brown @srbrown70.bsky.social · 10h

Correlation of a pitcher's average bat speed vs expected to various BPro metrics along with some updated leaderboards adjusting for what pitch types a pitcher throws and the counts they reach. Correlations are spearman correlations. Everything is min 500 swings against.

Stephen Sutton-Brown @srbrown70.bsky.social · 11h

anytime!

Stephen Sutton-Brown @srbrown70.bsky.social · 11h

just the model notation, it'll solve for a batter specific intercept to replace the 1

Stephen Sutton-Brown @srbrown70.bsky.social · 11h

of course, the model is set up as bat_speed ~ 1 + A*y_intercept + B*y_intercept^2 and I'm just solving for A and B by batter

Stephen Sutton-Brown @srbrown70.bsky.social · 12h

Averaged by pitcher. This isn't controlling for pitch type, but still some interesting names at the top and bottom. Reminder: negative values indicate the batter reduced their bat speed relative to what we'd expected given the swing's intercept point

Stephen Sutton-Brown @srbrown70.bsky.social · 13h

Difference in actual vs expected bat speed by pitch type. No surprises here: breaking and offspeed pitches fool batters

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Stephen Sutton-Brown @srbrown70.bsky.social · 13h

a collection of unique swings when modeling bat speed as a function of intercept point assuming constant jerk (thus a function of int and int squared)

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Stephen Sutton-Brown @srbrown70.bsky.social · 1d

If you model swings as having a constant jerk you can get around having to use a spline fit for bat speed vs intercept point. Useful because splines and GPs take way longer to fit with batter random effects

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Stephen Sutton-Brown @srbrown70.bsky.social · 1d

these are all so good

Stephen Sutton-Brown @srbrown70.bsky.social · 1d

great stuff from @jrodrigues39.bsky.social on managing familiarity in the postseason www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

Why Starters Are the True Weapons in October | Baseball Prospectus

Mystery functions differently than one might expect.

www.baseballprospectus.com

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Reposted by Stephen Sutton-Brown

Chris Hanel @chrishanel.com · 18d

a remix of a yoda meme:

after Sending out Treinen 37 times in a row while standing in front of the bullpen at 1:34 am

[picture of Dave Roberts looking dazed and confused]

2:12am... going back for more Treinen

[picture of Dave Roberts walking with a weird facial expression]

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Stephen Sutton-Brown @srbrown70.bsky.social · 3d

a pre-game meeting but instead of ppt slides of heat maps the dodgers fo showed him y'all's tweets

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Stephen Sutton-Brown @srbrown70.bsky.social · 3d

gonna go out on a limb and suggest snell pitch like this all the time

Stephen Sutton-Brown @srbrown70.bsky.social · 3d

Where PitchPro thinks Snell *should* target his pitches assuming he has an average miss distance of around a foot for each offering

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Stephen Sutton-Brown @srbrown70.bsky.social · 3d

that was the best. forgot a screw at one point and said "dadgummit" and told Georgia to wait while I go get it and she said "it ok, i gonna fix it for you, daddy"