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Seth Walder

@sethwalder.bsky.social

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ESPN NFL Analyst. DMs open.

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · Mar 28

Updated NFL analytics staffer list!*

As always, this list is to the best of my understanding based both on what teams list and conversations with analytics folks around the league.

(*Re-posting because I had a mistake on previous post)

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 18h

The Falcons used motion at the snap 67% of the time last night -- the highest rate by any team in a game this season.

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 19h

same!

Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 19h

right around Denzel Ward, maybe just below

Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 19h

that's a fun idea.

safety would be last!

Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 19h

An important caveat is that one thing this does NOT include is penalties. And that can obviously matter quite a bit.

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 19h

There are some benefits to other metrics, but if I had to choose one to quantify CB play it is yards per coverage snap.

The reason is that target deterrence is such an important part of CB play! Y/Snap keeps non-targets in the denominator.

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 19h

Outside CB coverage plot!

We're looking at yards allowed per coverage snap vs. zone (x) and vs. man (y).

This uses NFL Next Gen Stats' new coverage responsibility (as opposed to the old nearest defender system).

Up and right is good!

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 20h

This change is presumably related to trying to play to QB strengths.

But in general I think this is a move you want to see made. It's obviously much more complex than just this, but crossing routes are some of the most high-value routes (chart is several years old, but still).

Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 20h

One dramatic shift the Giants have made in conjunction with the quarterback change: crossing routes.

Weeks 1-3 (Wilson): Giants ran crossing routes 4.7% of the time, lowest rate in the league.

Weeks 4-6 (Dart): up to 12.6% (4th-most).

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d

Expected YAC at the time of Kyle Monangai's reception on this play was a cool 21 yards.

(Actual YAC: 28.7)

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Reposted by Seth Walder

Bill Barnwell @billbarnwell.com · 1d

Commanders turning a fourth-and-2 conversion into a big gain and a touchdown is a pretty good runout for those who are into analytics

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d

With his performance so far tonight Bijan Robinson has moved into a tie for the league lead in rush yards over expectation with David Montgomery at +127, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

He is also the league leader among RBs in YAC over expectation (+129).

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d

Chicago has actually had a 4.2 or better xYPC in every game this season (and better than that in all but one game). Biggest problem with their running game has probably been the running backs themselves.

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d

Bears are averaging 5.1 expected yards per carry tonight, per NFL Next Gen Stats, based on the positioning and movement of all 22 players at handoff.

That would be a season-high xYPC game for them and well above the 4.2 league average.

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d

commanders calling timeout before the next play is ball don't lie for challenge decision

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d

for sure. and it's certainly higher than whatever that was!

Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d

is the lowest leverage challenge of all time

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d

There were 36 seconds left when playclock started after final play of first quarter.

I always think in those spots, why not get a playcall in and line up and give the QB a choice? Like the look, run the play. Don't like it, end of quarter.

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d

Jaquan Brisker picks off Jayden Daniels, dots!

(NFL Next Gen Stats)

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d

Welp, did all that and forgot to *actually* include Week 5's data. Previous charts were through Week 4. Here are the updated charts!!

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d

same on this!!

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d

Here's how that looks on average. And it's interesting, I think, how different he is compared to Dawkins.

I've included with a couple other team pairs for comparison.

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d

In fact Brown has the largest difference in depth between run and pass plays of any tackle (through Week 5).

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d

With the Bills playing tonight, I've updated the tackle alignments (through Week 5) to look only at neutral-ish down and distances.

Filtering down to these plays, we still see a difference in Spencer Brown's alignment between run and pass plays.

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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d

if someone is going to give me draft capital for a washed 40-year-old QB I have already benched in a year when I am not contending it is actually *ideal* for that team to be within the division.

If I'm going to take someone's draft capital I'd like it to be my rival's.

Dub @20zz.bsky.social · 1d

The willingness to just ignore trading in your division to help another team is crazy

Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d

Tomlin’s comments are wild both because of the rare outright criticism of an opposing executive but also because that trade was such a straight-forward W for the Browns

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