Author | Lightnews

Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 1d

@cappelensforslag.bsky.social

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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 1d

Just cracked this open. No spoilers, please.

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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 12d

Recent comments by Bessent suggesting that rare earth export controls could lead to a Jenga-style collapse of the Chinese economy are yet another example of this:

Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · Apr 18

Key point from a Baiguan newsletter a few weeks back: listening to people who have been talking about China's economic slowdown like a collapse (and many of them have been proclaiming this "collapse" for over a decade) leads to policy own-goals like the recent tariff escalation.

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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 14d

No praise from me, but even so, people who worked in the Biden admin have also come out and said that that admin opposed a ceasefire on nearly identical terms to this one. Whether they did that for ideological fealty or political strategy feels irrelevant.

Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 14d

...happened without Trump's knowledge or approval. That's unclear, but China's focus on heads of state guiding the relationship might be a nod to elements in the US govt that zig when leadership zags (Pelosi to Taiwan under Biden, China hawks resisting Trump + Treasury/Comm seeking a deal now.)

Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 14d

Note last sentence: "guided by the important consensus reached between the two heads of state..." Since Trump's first admin, Chinese language on the bilateral relationship often emphasizes that leadership should steer the ship. In this case, many have wondered whether the US entity list expansion...

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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 14d

China's MOFCOM statement on rare earths export controls, emphasizing they're retaliatory in nature (specifically to US expanding entity list to cover subsidiaries.) "If the U.S. wants to fight, we will fight to the end; if it wants to talk, the door is always open." www.mofcom.gov.cn/xwfb/xwfyrth...

商务部新闻发言人就近期美方宣布对华加征关税等限制措施答记者问

www.mofcom.gov.cn

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Reposted by Robert Rust

Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 17d

The Uncanny Valet

Andrew Lawrence @ndrew.bsky.social · 18d

our economy is currently being propped up by the promise of billions of fully autonomous robot butlers coming in a year or so

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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 26d

China's larger arsenal and confirmed nuclear triad are concerning, but as Chinese arms control expert Wu Riqiang recently argued in International Security, they may also increase the possibility of Beijing engaging in nuclear risk reduction. My blog: blog.ucs.org/robert-rust/...

Could China’s New Nuclear Weapons Signal a New Era of Arms Control?

China's expansion of its nuclear arsenal may actually create an opportunity for the United States to reduce the risk of nuclear war.

blog.ucs.org

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Reposted by Robert Rust

Matthew Gault @mjgault.bsky.social · 26d

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Reposted by Robert Rust

Gerry Doyle @mgerrydoyle.bsky.social · 27d

hi, just piling on to say that the premise of a single icbm causing a "we have to act now or risk annihilation" crisis is, and I know I have complained about this a lot lately, murdering my few remaining brain cells www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wpw...

A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE | Official Trailer | Netflix

YouTube video by Netflix

www.youtube.com

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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 27d

I was at an early screening this week and couldn't stop thinking this the whole time. The "use it or lose it" scenario is completely irrelevant when facing one single missile.

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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · Sep 26

(From 2012): "U.S. officials feel no embarrassment when they think and speak about the history of the China-Japan relationship in this way. “Never again,” in this context, is a lesson they either never learned or have long forgotten." blog.ucs.org/gregory-kula...

China in Focus #9: China's Holocaust

"But the rape of Nanking had, for the Japanese, its own devastating revenge. It 1) solidified China into an indomitable will to resist the invader ; 2) so demoralized Japanese military discipline that...

blog.ucs.org

Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · Sep 26

Reposted by Robert Rust

Artologica aka Michele Banks @artologica.net · Sep 26

Morning walk

Wheat paste poster that says the all the world is dying and the new world struggles to be born now is the time of monsters. There's a picture of Elmo

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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · Sep 25

Found this super weird from the start, especially once that super over-produced DHS video about it dropped

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Reposted by Robert Rust

Jason Koebler @jasonkoebler.bsky.social · Sep 25

The much-hyped SIM farm the Secret Service seized uses readily available off the shelf tech that, very interestingly, has also become critical to ticket scalping. I, like others, am extremely not buying the idea that this was intended to take down the cell network

www.404media.co/the-sim-farm...

The SIM Farm Hardware Seized by the Secret Service Is Also Popular With Ticket Scalpers

The tech the Secret Service claims can be used to "disable cell phone towers" is very commonly used by ticket scalpers to game Ticketmaster.

www.404media.co

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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · Sep 25

Great discussion.

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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · Sep 23

Biden admin banned Russian LEU imports in May 2024, but there were waivers for several categories. The fact numbers have actually gone up is still very interesting. Also looks like there's no circumvention via China, which was a potential concern in late 2024.

Alejandro Soberano @alejandrosoberano.bsky.social · Sep 23

Trump increases enriched Uranium importations from Russia. Meanwhile, he asks to petrol blockages and future sanctions to Putin. Facts vs words.

Trump is not going to stop Russian invasion.

Graph from @nachomontesdeoca.bsky.social

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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · Sep 23

My colleague @gkucs.bsky.social on what the US needs to do to successfully talk to North Korea: blog.ucs.org/gregory-kula...

How to Make the Next Trump-Kim Meeting a Success

Kim Jong Un could be willing to agree to a nuclear weapons-free zone in Northeast Asia because it would threat North Korea the same as China, Russia, and the United States.

blog.ucs.org

Reposted by Robert Rust

Wesley Morgan @wesleymorgan.bsky.social · Sep 22

David Petraeus greeting Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa at the Concordia Summit in NYC. When Petraeus was a 3-star in Iraq in 2004-6, Sharaa was fighting the US as a member of the al-Qaida branch there; when Petraeus was a 4-star, Sharaa was teaching fellow Camp Bucca detainees classical Arabic

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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · Sep 19

I know exactly who you are talking about, but you should probably clarify for everyone else

Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · Sep 19

With regard to modern Taiwan policy and pushing for reunification, there is a clear political motivation behind this. After all, to Beijing there is only one China, and it includes the RoC. Building a victory narrative excluding them would run contrary to the narrative of one Chinese nation.

Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · Sep 19

That accords much more with their general messaging, celebration of foreigners who worked closely with Chiang/the KMT etc. I don't particularly buy that Beijing is doing big time historical revisionism. They celebrate their guys, but they also celebrate the United Fronts and other joint efforts.

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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · Sep 19

This is just one example, but it comes from the lead article in the People's Daily a few days before the big military parade, and should thus be seen as authoritative. To me, the general approach of the CCP is: "we played an important role, but it was a victory for the Chinese people as a whole."

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