Robbie M. Andrew | Lightnews

Robbie Andrew

@robbieandrew.bsky.social

4.1K followers 160 following 3.2K posts

Senior scientist at Oslo-based CICERO Center for International Climate Research • 🌍Global Carbon Project • https://robbieandrew.github.io/

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · May 8

On Tuesday I gave a ten-minute update on where global fossil CO₂ emissions are at.

CICEROdagen 2025 - En hel dag med klimakunnskap - Auditorium 0001

YouTube video by CICERO klima

youtu.be

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 2h

"After the White House called for billions of dollars in funding reductions, senators and representatives said they wanted to safeguard and even boost funds for basic research." 🎁🔗

Congress Is Rejecting Trump’s Steep Budget Cuts to Science

www.nytimes.com

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 2h

Og snu igjen..

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 5h

While our best estimate is that US fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions went up about 2% in 2025, the EIA is currently forecasting a drop of 2.2% in 2026.
robbieandrew.github.io/USA/

Graph showing: Past and forecasted US monthly fossil-fuel emissions (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/USA/)

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 2h

Well, that's interesting then if the WHO study actually does account for those factors. It includes our drinking overseas as well? Any ideas of an explanation that Norwegians would be lower? Is it simply price, the normal argument?

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 2h

I'm going to guess that it says at the bottom left "AI-generated". Otherwise I hope this model has top-notch self driving capabilities.
www.ithome.com/0/908/116.htm

Apparently AI-generated image of a of a car with excessive solar panels.

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 2h

From 2026, BEVs sold in China must meet energy efficiency standards (kWh/km), and PHEVs (including EREVs) must have a minimum battery range of 100km - up from 43 km before - to qualify for purchase-tax exemption.

China’s 2026 NEV Standard Explained: No Tax Break for Hybrids with EV Range Under 100km | ChinaEVHome

With both “incentives” and “pressures” placed before automakers, they only have 3 months to make adjustments – from the release of the new requirements to their implementation. What choices will autom...

chinaevhome.com

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 3h

It's the "Norwegians don't eat much sugar" story all over again...

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 3h

Source doc, which says it gets data from SSB, which says it uses tax data, which means it only includes alcohol sold in Norway and taxed. Therefore also excludes duty-free.

stats.oecd.org

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 3h

Article says that Norwegians drink less alcohol than Finns, Swedes, Danes. "I'm surprised" says random interviewee. But the source appears to exclude alcohol purchased in Sweden, which is a fairly large amount.

Nordmenn drikker minst i Norden

Etter russetid og fadderuke med mye festing, er Nora Stavenes Haugan (23) overrasket over at nordmenn er nederst på den nordiske alkoholstatistikken.

www.nrk.no

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 4h

There are a bunch of reasons why US emissions went up in 2025, but high among them is weather. It was a more normal year, i.e. similar to the ten-year average, while the year before was much tmilder than normal. So it went from 2024 needing only low levels of heating, to 2025 needing normal levels.

Graph showing: United States cumulative monthly HDD anomaly (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/USA/)

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 4h

The US was also moving away from fossil fuels until not long ago...

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 4h

Here's how their forecast for 2026 has changed over the last 13 months.

Graph showing: Changing EIA forecasts for US CO2 emissions in 2026 (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/USA/)

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 5h

While our best estimate is that US fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions went up about 2% in 2025, the EIA is currently forecasting a drop of 2.2% in 2026.
robbieandrew.github.io/USA/

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 6h

Well worth reading the article here. Just scroll past all the slides and switch your translator on 🐟.

中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会

乘用车市场信息联席会（以下简称全国乘联会，英文简称CPCA）成立于1994年，原名全国轿车市场信息联谊会。全国乘联会也是中国流通协会下属的汽车市场研究分会。

www.cpcaauto.com

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 7h

Since folks ask: there are spikes in sales, usually at the end of the year. Staff get bonuses, prices are heavily discounted to meet targets and move inventory, policies change in the new year, etc.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

Screenshot from https://robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 7h

They're end-of-year. Some thoughts.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 7h

They're normally lumped together specifically for China because China's policy treats them the same, as "new-energy" vehicles. But yes, there's plenty of evidence that plug-ins aren't running on electricity as much as folks were led to beliece.

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 7h

Is perfect the enemy of good?

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 7h

Yes, that's interesting. Would be nice to find out what drove that differential.

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 7h

That was my guess. Those who are interested in status might prefer foreign, and also businesses that buy for their staff and are less concerned about the up-front costs. But Chinese EVs are both cheaper and more feature-packed ("exciting").

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 7h

Some examples.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 8h

Foreign EVs can't possibly compete on price in China.

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 8h

But the Netherlands also imports a fair number of used vehicles, so when you take these into account, it was at 45% BEV in December.

Graph showing: Dutch new passenger car sales by type: Monthly (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/)

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 8h

Things are moving fast.

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 8h

Definitely.

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 8h

Yep.

Graph showing: Finnish new passenger car sales by type: Monthly (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/)

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 9h

Interesting to note that the end of 2025 did not see the usual surge in sales. There have been policy changes and pressure from the government on the industry to rein in the steep discounting we've seen previously. Dec 2025 sales were 14% lower than Dec 2024.
www.cpcaauto.com/newslist.php...

Graph showing: Chinese new passenger car sales by type: Monthly (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/)

Reposted by Wim Thiery

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 9h

China's December numbers are in, and battery-electric cars made up 35% in December and 33% for the year. Plug-in hybrids made up another 21% for the year for a total "new-energy" share of 54% in 2025.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 9h

Importantly, policies are also incentivising businesses to purchase electric. This was something that took a while to get in place in Norway.

Graph showing: Denmark: BEV share in new car registrations (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/country/?country=DNK)

Reposted by Wim Thiery

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 9h

Denmark's December car sales data just released. Battery-electrics reached an incredible 81% in December to make up 68% for the year.

Graph showing: Danish new passenger car sales by type: Monthly (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/)

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 9h

EIA: "We forecast electricity consumption will grow by 1% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, marking the first four years of consecutive growth since 2005–07, and the strongest four-year period of growth since the turn of the century."

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis

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