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Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 5m

I would say "no".

Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 5m

If both Sherrill and Spanberger win - which seems totally plausible - then a lot of people are going to say that Democrats have identified a 'template' for winning.

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Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 8m

Right, every race has its particulars, and if Mikie wins narrowly as seems likely, then the choice will arguably have been validated.

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Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 13m

The one that NYC has seems kinda fine?

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Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 14m

I actually agree that Democrats should not "move left" as a general principle. They have tried that before and it doesn't work. But I also don't think that Democrats should choose boring centrist candidates like Mikie Sherrill!! There are other axes of political variance beyond "left/right"!!

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Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 21m

I'm not sure the primary is a very good example of democracy though, because it involves small subsets of voters making decisions on who the other voters will have a chance to vote for, often based on fallacious assumptions about what those other voters want.

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Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 23m

He has got all this way and doesn't even have an Ambassadorship to show for it.

Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 25m

I think we may actually agree here? - Democratic primary voters endorse candidates based on who they perceive to be a likely vote-winner, but they have no idea who the broader electorate will actually like, because they are a weird niche of a niche.

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Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 28m

I think the beer test is quite good, honestly. Probably quite a good definition of 'moderate'.

Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 29m

"what matters is how the voters define moderate" is pure vibes. The voters themselves don't know how they define moderate.

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Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 30m

I should have named Joe Biden instead of Kamala because Kamala never won a primary. In fact, she did horribly in the Presidential primary. Joe Biden did win one election, just about, against one of the most divisive Presidents ever.

Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 32m

I think that how we define 'moderate' is very important. A lot of voters want change or representation by somebody who is more down-to-earth. Mikie Sherrill does not represent change and, as a Washington DC insider, is not down-to-earth. (Zohran Mamdani, on the other hand, is both.)

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Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 35m

Democratic primary voters talk themselves into voting for incredibly boring candiates like Hillary Clinton, Kamala Harris, and Mikie Sherrill, who have almost zero appeal to normie voters, because they think that normies will only vote for a dependable moderate. But is that true? I am skeptical!!!

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Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 37m

These primary voters, instead of voting for the candidate that they like best, try to hypothesizie what will influence the votes of the kind of normie people who aren't plugged into politics. But! The primary voters have no idea what motivates those people! They are basing their vote on vibes!!

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Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 38m

I actually have time for it and I will tell you why: a lot of primary voters that I talked to in Princeton wanted to vote for "a candidate who would win". Like the bunch of hand-wringing libs that they are, they over-think it, instead of voting for the candidate that they like best.

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Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 43m

Moderate Democrats: Sherrill's narrow victory is proof that it takes a moderate Democrat to win races.
DSA types: Sherrill's narrow victory is proof that the Democrats need to move left to win races.
Republicans: Sherrill's narrow victory is proof that voters still like MAGA.

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Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 45m

My take is that Sherrill has been leading in basically all the polls by 5-10 points. Although certain outlets want to make it out to be a nail-biter, the race has not shown much volatility and it will probably be a narrow Sherrill victory, which everyone will take as proof of their priors.

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Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 48m

My anecdata contribution to this discussion is that I have already voted for Sherrill without any enthusiasm.

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Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 1h

You really don't have to choose between criticizing RFK Jr and Olivia Nuzzi!! Classic "whynotboth?" situation!!!

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Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 1h

Harry Enten is the Jim Cramer of polls.

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Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 3h

Yes, that seems very fair!

Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 3h

There are several things going on, it's not just a shift from Labour to Reform. That is probably not even the major component of Reform's current popularity. What is clear is that it's a febrile environment and voters are mad with the establishment parties.

Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 3h

🎵 "Now even though I went to college and dropped out of school quick, I always had a PhD, a..."

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Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 3h

I think it is my favorite New York Park. I like it even more than Central Park in a way.

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Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 6h

It would be a great sign if they continue to shift wildly because I don't fancy a Reform government.

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