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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 26m

Visualizing currency movements of key US trading partners since the start of the post-pandemic monetary tightening cycle. All currencies indexed to 100 on March 16 (date of the first Fed rate hike); latest data point is 10 Oct #fx #econsky

Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 26m

Uncertainty Update: VIX at 20.81; 7-day average of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index at 383.7, up 31.2 from the prior week #vix #MarketVolatility #econsky https://tinyurl.com/3bvx9f5m

Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 7h

Transportation indices are volatile, but can serve as leading indicator. In Aug 2025 the Passenger Transportation Services Index stood at 138.9; the Freight Transportation Index stood at 125.6 in Jul 2025 #econsky Details: https://rb.gy/ws6csr

US.Transportation.FreightTransportationServices.png

Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 7h

The Truck Tonnage Index rose by 0.7% in Aug 2025. Trucking is a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing over 70% of tonnage carried (incl. manufactured and retail goods). The index is dominated by contract freight with minimal amounts of spot market loads #econsky

Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 7h

Transportation Update: Rail Freight Intermodal Traffic. Intermodal refers to transportation of freight in an intermodal container or vehicle, using multiple modes of transportation (e.g., rail, ship, truck), without any handling of the freight itself when changing modes. #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 7h

Air Traffic coming back, Public Transportation not so much #econsky https://tinyurl.com/bdfwtvvj

Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 8h

Future business conditions for the state of New York are improving, relative to last month with the indicator standing at 30.3 in Oct 2025. Last month's reading was 14.8 #NYState #survey #econsky https://tinyurl.com/bdfwtvvj

Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 8h

Current manufacturing business conditions from the Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 10.7 for Oct 2025, suggesting that business conditions are improving (as the value is above zero). Last month's reading was -8.7. #empirestate #manufacturing #survey #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 9h

On 10 Oct the Nominal Emerging Market USD Index stood at 132.5278. Relative to a month ago, this is approx. an increase of 0.3%. Relative to a year ago, USD is about -0.44% lower. The index is weighted against a broad subset of emerging market currencies #exchangerates #econsky

Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 1d

7-day weighted av. for Diesel currently at $3.71, down -4.3 cents from last week. Diesel engines in trucks, trains, boats, and barges transport nearly all products people consume. Relative to 12 months ago, this is a $0.13 increase. #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 1d

7-day weighted av. price for gas currently at $3.25, up 0.5 cents from last week. Relative to 12 months ago, this is a -1 cent decrease. #inflation #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 1d

On 10 October the Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index stood at 121.5217. Relative to a month ago, this is approx. an increase of 0.84%. Relative to a year ago, USD is about -1.38% lower. The index is weighted against a broad group of trading partners #exchangerate #usd #econsky

Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 1d

Banking and Finance Job Postings on Indeed in the United States at 96.2of the pre-pandemic baseline of 100% #econsky #indeed

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 1d

How will dramatically lower energy consumption affect relative pricing of crypto currencies? Since the 'merge' on Sept. 15, 20222 Ethereum has gained approx. 188.23% in value, while Bitcoin has gained approx. 485.08% #crypto #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 1d

On 03 October the Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index stood at 120.5163. Relative to a month ago, this is approx. a decrease of -0.07%. Relative to a year ago, USD is about -1.58% lower. The index is weighted against a broad group of trading partners #exchangerate #usd #econsky

Kevin A. Bryan @afinetheorem.bsky.social · 1d

What a great day: legends of innovation economics Mokyr, Aghion and Howitt win the Nobel. Joel was a PhD advisor of mine, so need a full article! Included: good & bad explanations of the Indus Rev, Aghion's charisma, influence of Jon Hughes, French fashion houses: kevinbryanecon.com/mokyraghionh...

A Nobel for Innovation: Mokyr, Aghion, and Howitt

kevinbryanecon.com

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 2d

Total Assets for all Commercial Banks have increased from 24487.5481 last week to 24504.233 on 01 October. Relative to a year ago, this represents an increase of about 4.5%. Evolution of the main asset categories shown in the chart below #commercialbanks #assets #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 2d

High-frequency labor market update: On 25 November postings on job site Indeed were 49.3% above their pre-pandemic level. New job postings, defined as on Indeed for seven days or less, are 56.6% above their pre-pandemic level #jobs @indeed #econsky

Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 2d

Corporate Bond Market Update: Using data as of 09 October, Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield for bonds with 20+ years maturity is at 5.21% for the AAA (up 0.05p.p. from the prior week). The BAA is at 5.83%. #econsky

Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 2d

Bitcoin at $114978.08; Ethereum at $4140.84. Bitcoin is about -0.3% down from a month ago, and about 68% up from a year ago. Ethereum is about -10.1% down from a month ago and about 56% up from a year ago. #crypto #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 4d

Comparing the evolution of job posting on Indeed for Germany and the UK since the pandemic. All posting indexed to 100% on Feb. 1, 2020 #econsky #indeed

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 4d

At the end of this week, the GDPNow forecast from the Altanta Fed for Q3 2025 stands at at 3.77%. GDPNow is a nowcasting model for GDP growth projecting 13 GDP subcomponents with monthly source data, a factor model and a BVAR. #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 4d

The average rate on a U.S. 30-Year Fixed Rate Conforming #mortgage on 09 October was at 6.296%. Relative to the prior week, the rate has increased by about 0.03 p.p. #mortgagerates #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 5d

5Y Breakeven Inflation Rate at 2.39%, up from 2.38% last week; 10Y Breakeven Inflation at 2.34%. Breakeven inflation uses the difference between Constant Maturity and Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Treasuries to calculate market expectations #inflation #econsky.

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 5d

10Y #Treasury is at 4.14%, up from 4.13% last week. How are shorter-term interest rates contributing to the change in the yield curve? #interest #econsky https://tinyurl.com/m7pdyyyf

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 5d

The U.S. Dollars to U.K. Pound Sterling Spot Exchange Rate stood at 1.3481 USD/GBP last week (03 October). Relative to a month ago, this is -0.5% lower. Relative to a year ago, the exchange rate has risen by 2.9% #exchangerate #gbp #usd #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 5d

Last week (03 October) the U.S. Dollars to Euro Exchange Rate was 1.1747 USD/EUR. Relative to a month ago, this is a decrease of approx. 0%. Relative to a year ago, the exchange rate is about 7.2% higher. #exchangerate #eur #usd #econsky

Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 6d

The Kansas City Financial Stress index in Sep 2025 at -0.84, down 0 from prior month. Positive values indicate #stress above the long-run average, while negative values signify below-average stress #econsky

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Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 6d

Average US 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage last week at 6.3%, down -0.04 p.p. from prior week. 5/1 ARM at 6.1% #mortgage #househunters #econsky

Philipp Maier @pmaier1971.bsky.social · 6d

Emerging Market Update: Longer-term view of currency movements since the start of the post-pandemic monetary tightening cycle. All currencies indexed to 100 on March 16 (date of the first Fed rate hike); latest data point is 03 Oct #fx #emergingmarkets #econsky