Philipp Maier
@pmaier1971.bsky.social
Economic data releases and news, automated with R.
Data from http://fred.stlouisfed.org.
Code/details: http://whyitmatters.netlify.app
All views and errors are mine.
Economics
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Engineering
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At the end of this week, the GDPNow forecast from the Altanta Fed for Q3 2025 stands at at 4.02%. GDPNow is a nowcasting model for GDP growth projecting 13 GDP subcomponents with monthly source data, a factor model and a BVAR. #econsky
The average rate on a U.S. 30-Year Fixed Rate Conforming #mortgage on 25 November was at 6.169%. Relative to the prior week, the rate has fallen by about -0.08 p.p. #mortgagerates #econsky
5Y Breakeven Inflation Rate at 2.29%, down from 2.34% last week; 10Y Breakeven Inflation at 2.23%. Breakeven inflation uses the difference between Constant Maturity and Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Treasuries to calculate market expectations #inflation #econsky.
10Y #Treasury is at 4%, down from 4.01% last week. How are shorter-term interest rates contributing to the change in the yield curve? #interest #econsky https://tinyurl.com/m7pdyyyf
The U.S. Dollars to U.K. Pound Sterling Spot Exchange Rate stood at 1.31 USD/GBP last week (21 November). Relative to a month ago, this is -1.5% lower. Relative to a year ago, the exchange rate has risen by 4.7% #exchangerate #gbp #usd #econsky
Last week (21 November) the U.S. Dollars to Euro Exchange Rate was 1.1506 USD/EUR. Relative to a month ago, this is a decrease of approx. -1%. Relative to a year ago, the exchange rate is about 10.6% higher. #exchangerate #eur #usd #econsky
Emerging Market Update: Longer-term view of currency movements since the start of the post-pandemic monetary tightening cycle. All currencies indexed to 100 on March 16 (date of the first Fed rate hike); latest data point is 21 Nov #fx #emergingmarkets #econsky
Manufacturers' New Orders for Durable Goods rose by 0.48% in Sep 2025; for Nondurable Goods new orders declined by -0.09% #econsky
Uncertainty Update: VIX at 18.56; 7-day average of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index at 272.3, down -34.6 from the prior week #vix #MarketVolatility #econsky https://tinyurl.com/3bvx9f5m
The Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index in Nov 2025 came in at -0.53, down from -0.53 the prior month.Negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average. #econsky
On 21 Nov the Nominal Emerging Market USD Index stood at 132.5872. Relative to a month ago, this is approx. an increase of 0.3%. Relative to a year ago, USD is about -3.6% lower. The index is weighted against a broad subset of emerging market currencies #exchangerates #econsky
7-day weighted av. for Diesel currently at $3.83, down -3.7 cents from last week. Diesel engines in trucks, trains, boats, and barges transport nearly all products people consume. Relative to 12 months ago, this is a $0.29 increase. #econsky
7-day weighted av. price for gas currently at $3.19, down 0 cents from last week. Relative to 12 months ago, this is a 2 cent increase. #econsky
House prices up 0.4% q/q, with the index at 706.04. This is 85.7% above the peak prior to the 2008/09 recession #homeprices #econsky
Philly Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Survey: 34.7% firms report paying higher prices, down -1.1 p.p. from last month #survey #phillyfed #econsky
Sales of Sporting Goods and Furniture skyrocketed during the pandemic. Let's see how sustainable that was https://bit.ly/3BXLMFM #AdvanceRetailSales #econsky
Advance Retail Sales increase by 0.2% in Sep 2025, after increasing by 0.6% in Aug 2025. Key components shown in the charts #USCensus #RetailTherapy #econsky
On 21 November the Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index stood at 122.235. Relative to a month ago, this is approx. an increase of 0.92%. Relative to a year ago, USD is about -4.26% lower. The index is weighted against a broad group of trading partners #exchangerate #usd #econsky
#Banking Update: Number of Unprofitable Institutions at 219, down -21 from last Quarter #econsky