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Paul Graf

@paulginva.bsky.social

4K followers 1.8K following 10K posts

Retired lawyer. Moderate. Dog lover, cat tolerator. Grandfather. Vietnam vet. History, international relations, national security, high-profile litigation, economics, and a little politics.

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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · Jul 31

𝘏𝘶𝘮𝘢𝘯 𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘯𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘸𝘦𝘢𝘬𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘢 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘰𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘪𝘣𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘧 𝘢 𝘧𝘳𝘦𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦. 𝘈 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘤𝘳𝘶𝘦𝘭 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘵𝘰𝘶𝘨𝘩. –𝘍𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘬𝘭𝘪𝘯 𝘋. 𝘙𝘰𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘵

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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 8h

Trump Wants More Natural-Gas Exports and Lower Energy Prices. It’s Going to Be Tricky.

Major gas basins are growing old, and the U.S. lacks the proper infrastructure to ferry molecules where they are needed.

www.wsj.com

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 8h

“If you want to export all this LNG, if you want data sector growth, all the power demand growth, you’re going to need higher prices." Damn, there's that phrase again! So many ways to spend money we don't have.

With the Trump administration's support, developers are forging ahead with plans to build a flurry of new terminals that liquefy and ship natural gas. President Trump has made LNG exports a cornerstone of his trade policies by tying deals to commitments to buy more U.S. energy.

The administration is calling on drillers not only to fuel these new facilities on top of existing plants, but also to help electrify the reshoring of industries, as well as to power giant data centers.

The hitch: Major gas basins are growing old, and the country lacks the proper infrastructure to ferry molecules where they are needed. The upshot is that American consumers and industries are likely to see higher natural-gas prices and more volatility in the coming years, analysts and executives say. That could be an issue for Trump, who has promised to cut energy prices in half.

"If you want to export all this LNG, if you want data sector growth, all the power demand growth, you're going to need higher prices," said Eugene Kim, an analyst at energy research firm Wood Mackenzie. "And that goes in contradiction to what Trump wants, which is lower energy."

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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 9h

Desperately flipping through the Harmonized System codes to check what customs category Lao Gan Ma falls under.

The funny thing is, China does not supply cooking oil to the US. Main U.S. Cooking Oil imported is palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia. The US does not grow oil palm trees.

Rush Doshi @RushDoshi

Our great threat is to ban PRC cooking oil?

And soybeans weren't the hostile act; the unprecedented rare earth licensing regime was.

I am not sure Trump is trying to "win" the trade war. Maybe all Trump wants is to sell soybeans. Beijing will see this as weakness.

Donald J. Trump @realDonald Trump +

I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution. As an example, we can easily produce Cooking Oil ourselves, we don't need to purchase it from China.

2.1k ReTruths 10.8k Likes Oct 14, 2025, 3:37 PM

4:40 PM

Oct 14, 2025

17.4K Views

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 9h

I didn't know cooking oil was so important. 🤔

The image shows a post from "The Kobeissi Letter" on a social media platform, with a chart of the S&P 500 index. The post claims that the S&P 500 lost $450 billion in market capitalization within 7 minutes due to a threat from President Trump to begin producing cooking oil in the US.
The chart shows a rapid decline in the S&P 500 index between approximately 2:37 PM and 2:44 PM.
An annotation on the chart at 2:37 PM states, "TRUMP THREATENS TO STOP BUYING CHINESE COOKING OIL."
Another annotation at 2:44 PM states, "S&P 500 ERASES -$450 BILLION OF MARKET CAP."
The S&P 500 index value is shown to have dropped to 6,631.82.

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 10h

Labor supply has slowed, but labor demand has slowed even more, as evidenced by the recent decline in job openings.

The chart shows the trend of job postings on Indeed in the United States, indexed to February 1, 2020. The data indicates a general downward trend in job postings since the beginning of 2025.
The index value for job postings was 102.43 on Friday, October 3, 2025.
The index is based on job postings on Indeed, with February 1, 2020, as the baseline (100).
The data is sourced from Indeed via FRED®.
Shaded areas on the chart indicate U.S. recessions.

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 10h

Trump says migrants drive violent crime in Illinois. But ICE can’t find many violent criminals.

Masked ICE agents and other federal forces showed up in Chicago to go after gangsters. Instead, they keep catching people who are just living their lives.

www.msnbc.com

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 10h

This seems like an expensive and disruptive way to get (checks notes) one (1) gangster.

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @ReichlinMelnick

UPDATE: the official DHS count of Tren de Aragua members arrested in the Chicago apartment raid has now dropped down to just ONE.

A few days ago, Stephen Miller was claiming the entire building was "full of Tren de Aragua terrorists."

Just one "verified" Tren de Aragua member and one U.S. citizen with an active warrant were among the 37, DHS said, without saying how it had verified that gang affiliation. Others taken that day, the agency said, were "illegal aliens."

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @ReichlinMelnick Oct 10

HA! How much is Stephen Miller a propagandist? He's saying the building in Chicago raided by DHS, where children were zip-tied and citizens dragged out, was "full of Tren de Aragua terrorists."

Even DHS's own account claims just TWO gang members total - and even ...

5:20 PM Oct 14, 2025 46K Views

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 11h

The economy is doing just fine. 🙄

"The head of GoFundMe, Tim Cadogan, told Yahoo! Finance the economy is so challenged that more Americans are raising money to buy food—an arresting data point that captures the widening gap between household budgets and basic needs."

GoFundMe CEO says the economy is so bad that more of his customers are crowdfunding just to pay for their groceries

GoFundMe’s CEO says more Americans are crowdfunding everyday essentials like groceries as high costs and strained household finances persist.

finance.yahoo.com

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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 13h

Satellites Are Leaking the World’s Secrets: Calls, Texts, Military and Corporate Data

With just $800 in basic equipment, researchers found a stunning variety of data—including thousands of T-Mobile users’ calls and texts and even US military communications—sent by satellites unencrypte...

www.wired.com

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 13h

Well, that's cool. 😐

For three years, the UCSD and UMD researchers developed and used an off-the-shelf, $800 satellite receiver system on the roof of a university building in the La Jolla seaside neighborhood of San Diego to pick up the communications of geosynchronous satellites in the small band of space visible from their Southern California vantage point. By simply pointing their dish at different satellites and spending months interpreting the obscure-but unprotected-signals they received from them, the researchers assembled an alarming collection of private data: They obtained samples of the contents of Americans' calls and text messages on T-Mobile's cellular network, data from airline passengers' in-flight Wi-Fi browsing, communications to and from critical infrastructure such as electric utilities and offshore oil and gas platforms, and even US and Mexican military and law enforcement communications that revealed the locations of personnel, equipment, and facilities.

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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 13h

Looks like Hegseth's old employer, Fox News, has refused to sign his press requirements.

"Today, we join virtually every other news organization in declining to agree to the Pentagon's new requirements, which would restrict journalists' ability to keep the nation and the world informed of important national security issues. The policy is without precedent and threatens core journalistic protections.

We will continue to cover the U.S. military as each of our organizations has done for many decades, upholding the principles of a free and independent press."

- Joint statement from ABC News, CBS News, CNN, FOX News Media, NBC News

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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 15h

It's cool that the three main use cases for AI are cheating on homework, writing node.js CRUD apps, and jerking off.

Sam Altman @sama

We made ChatGPT pretty restrictive to make sure we were being careful with mental health issues. We realize this made it less useful/enjoyable to many users who had no mental health problems, but given the seriousness of the issue we wanted to get this right.

Now that we have been able to mitigate the serious mental health issues and have new tools, we are going to be able to safely relax the restrictions in most cases.

In a few weeks, we plan to put out a new version of ChatGPT that allows people to have a personality that behaves more like what people liked about 40 (we hope it will be better!). If you want your ChatGPT to respond in a very human-like way, or use a ton of emoji, or act like a friend, ChatGPT should do it (but only if you want it, not because we are usage-maxxing).

In December, as we roll out age-gating more fully and as part of our "treat adult users like adults" principle, we will allow even more, like erotica for verified adults.

12:02 PM Oct 14, 2025 939.6K Views

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 15h

“There is concern that if we continue to add more rocks to the bucket, it will continue getting heavier.”

The image is a screenshot from a Fox Business news report about new tariffs on imported furniture and lumber. The report discusses the impact of these tariffs on the home-building industry.
New tariffs have been implemented on imported furniture, cabinets, and lumber.
The tariff on cabinets and vanities is set to increase to 50% on January 1st.
The cost of building materials has increased by 34%.
These tariffs are expected to impact the home-buying industry and could lead to higher prices for consumers.

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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 16h

Don't laugh, there are millions of people who will see this and believe it.

The image is a screenshot of a tweet from Spencer Hakimian showing a Fox News broadcast featuring Speaker Mike Johnson. The broadcast is a "Fox News Alert" about "Speaker Johnson Remarks on Govt Shutdown".

The tweet quotes Mike Johnson as saying, "Democrats would repeal, take away the $50B that Republicans put into law to support rural hospitals. They would send $500M to liberal news outlets".
The broadcast is live from Capitol Hill.
The remarks are related to a government shutdown, which has been an ongoing topic of discussion and press conferences from Speaker Johnson.
The broadcast also notes that Charlie Kirk was awarded a Medal of Freedom.

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 16h

This is the 𝘢𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦 price of a new car. It blows my mind!

According to an article from Yahoo! Finance, the average price of a new car in the US has exceeded $50,000 for the first time. The article attributes this increase to tariffs and the growing market for more expensive vehicles aimed at wealthier consumers.
The average price of a new car in the US has surpassed $50,000.
This is the first time car prices have reached this milestone.
The data is sourced from Kelley Blue Book.
Factors contributing to the price increase include tariffs and a focus on pricier vehicles for affluent buyers.

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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 16h

creating emotional dependencies that could have lasting consequences for how these students navigate relationships, handle rejection, and develop resilience throughout their lives.

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 16h

conflict, disappointment, and growth through difficulty. AI companions offer the illusion of connection without the messy reality of human emotions, potentially stunting the very skills young people need to form lasting bonds with actual humans. Schools pushing AI literacy may be inadvertently

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 16h

witnessing something that should deeply concern anyone who cares about healthy human development.

This isn't just about technology adoption, it's about a generation learning emotional intimacy from systems designed to be agreeable rather than honest. Real relationships involve

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 16h

Bit of a different post here, but I think this data deserves attention. 19% of high schoolers report romantic relationships with AI chatbots, while 42% use them for friendship and mental health support. When over 1/3 of teenagers find it easier to talk to algorithms than their own parents, we're

Hand in Hand: Schools’ Embrace of AI Connected to Increased Risks to Students

Artificial intelligence (AI) has continued to alter the educational experiences of teachers, students, and parents during the 2024-25 school year. The frequency and variety of AI uses continues to gro...

cdt.org

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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 16h

Oh no, I honestly had no idea what you were talking about. No offense taken. In fact, thank you for teaching me something I didn't know.

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 16h

dischargeable in bankruptcy. Period. Trump didn't get relieved of his tax liability in his bankruptcies, he got relief from bank loans, a different thing entirely.

Seriously though, if you'd like to test what I've said, feel free to do so. At least now you'll know what to expect.

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 16h

refusing to pay what you owe is a federal felony with a 5-year maximum prison term & a potential fine of up to $100K. Tax protestors, as this person is encouraging, are treated harshly, so expect to be sentenced toward the high end. The IRS & DOJ have a perfect record in these cases. Taxes are not

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 16h

I'm sorry if I insult you, but do you know how the commercial real estate industry works? How it's taxes are computed? What they usually pay? Not owing (as opposed to not paying 👆) is a common thing. Unless there's fraud involved, filing a return saying you don't owe anything is fine. Simply

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 17h

Article: futurism.com/data-centers...
Blog post (highly recommended): pracap.com/global-cross...

There's a Stunning Financial Problem With AI Data Centers

Given the rate at which tech companies are spending on data centers, current revenues would have to increase ten-fold just to break even.

futurism.com

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 17h

When all you hear from promoters is what their new innovation is going to be able to do and not a word about how the company is going to make a profit, watch out. And so it is with AI. The software produces near-miraculous results, but the compute capacity necessary to run it is its Achilles heel.

Kupperman's original skepticism was built on a guess that the components in an average Al data center would take ten years to depreciate, requiring costly replacements. That was bad enough: "I don't see how there can ever be any return on investment given the current math," he wrote at the time.

But ten years, he now understands, is way too generous.

"I had previously assumed a 10-year depreciation curve, which I now recognize as quite unrealistic based upon the speed with which Al datacenter technology is advancing," Kupperman wrote. "Based on my conversations over the past month, the physical data centers last for three to ten years, at most."

In his previous analysis, Kupperman assumed it would take the tech industry $160 billion of revenue to break even on data center spending in 2025 alone. And that's assuming an incredibly generous 25 percent gross margin not to mention the fact that the industry's actual Al revenue is closer to $20 billion annually, as the investment manager noted in his previous blog.

"In reality, the industry probably needs a revenue range that is closer to the $320 billion to $480 billion range, just to break even on the capex to be spent this year," Kupperman posited in his updated essay. "No wonder my new contacts in the industry shoulder a heavy burden heavier than I could ever imagine. They know the truth."

Kupperman called that gulf between tech industry spending and actual revenue in 2025 "astonishing." However, it doesn't even begin to scratch the surface. For example, how does it all shake out when we account for 2026, when hundreds of new data centers are expected to pop up?

"Adding the two years together, and using the math from my prior post, you'd need approximately $1 trillion in revenue to hit break even, and many trillions more to earn an acceptable return on this spend," he writes.

"If the economics don't work, doing it at massive scale doesn't make the economics work any better - it just takes an industry crisis and…