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The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰

@paintnpdx.bsky.social

570 followers 560 following 4.7K posts

Downtown Pdx florist. Going Floral Blog Hubby/Dad Science/Skepticism Blazers/Raiders/Aces. No. 1 reply guy posting too much shit. Black Lives Matter (he/him)

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The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · Mar 9

Repeating my request that @trailblazers.bsky.social make the video and audio from this clip into the intro for every tv and radio broadcast until we have another championship to celebrate.

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The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 3h

Oh, an expert. Going back to delete the gibberish I just posted.

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The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 5h

This sounds like a great question for @dieworkwear.bsky.social

The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 5h

I’m gonna have to consider if I want post all this again next year. The presenters move quickly and it’s hard to absorb and post at the same time. But I had a really great time linking with a lot of friends from the science and weather community.

The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 6h

And that’s it, we’re just raffling prizes now! Wish me luck.

The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 6h

The forecast:
PDX rain 33”
South valley rain 37”

Temp 2.5 deg below normal

Wind: A 50mph wind storms

Snowfall:
PDX 6”
Valley 4”

The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 6h

I like Tanis’ ability to find interesting “trends”

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The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 6h

1921-22 is one of his top analogs which was the year of the “ice storm of the century” in Troutdale and an arctic blast in Portland.

Analog year 2013-14 also had a December west of cascades arctic blast -10 degrees F and major snow storm in Eugene. And a second blast in February.

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The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 7h

Tanis has 27 analog years and 5 top analogs. Two recent top analog years 13-14 and 17-18.

Sorry about the image quality it’s a projector and it’s not photographing well.

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The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 7h

Major PNW wind storms are more common in ENSO neutral or weak Nina/nino years.

The “blob” is back. Very warm temp across the N Pacific.

QBO suggests a weaker polar vortex.

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The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 7h

Tanis is explaining some changes he’s made to his methodology to better reflect our current climate when comparing with decades ago and climate of the past.

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The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 7h

Remember folks forecasting what happens three months away is a lot of guessing with historical analogs and statistics to call on but models looking ahead don’t have any idea. It’s too detailed and too random to make specific physics based forecasts.

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The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 7h

Tanis Leach of Youtube fame is back. Tanis says last winter was his worst winter forecast since 2019.

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The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 7h

Her forecast:

Early season or late seaso hydrological event. Localized flooding.

High wind event. Nov-Jan.

Cold air event. Jan-Feb (via gorge not an arctic blast)

Icing. Late Dec-Feb.

Snow forecast: 4” with a range of 0”-6”. Likely Jan-Feb.

The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 7h

Historical winters with similar Enso patterns since 1950:

Average snow at PDX: 6.34”
Most 13.1”
Least 0”

Negative pdo years:
Most: 23”
Least 0”

Combining both for Proxy years: 3”-13”

Combining all proxy years with similar solar cycle years: 0.1”

yikes, let’s hope this part is wrong.

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The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 7h

Lots of space weather stuff. @catrenzer.bsky.social would love this presentation.

10.7cm solar flux - this stuff is above me but I’m catching up.high

Solar flux affects the stratospheric polar vortex.

I’m going to need a link to her power point later to catch up! Luckily she provides this. 😂

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The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 7h

This winter is expected to transition from weak La Niña to Enso neutral.

SOI southern oscillation index (a new to me term) invoked.

Negative PDO (pacific deacadal oscillation) typically shifts the jet stream north.

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The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 7h

Common theme: last years winter forecast didn’t go particularly well for our forecasters. Looking at what happened with last year?

Solar Maximum through last winter months. Not accounted for enough in forecast.

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The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 7h

April Elliot is back. Presentation titled From La Nina to Enso Neutral what it could mean for Portland Snow

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The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 7h

Kyle predicts:

several snow events (110% of normal, 26”) for hood river

a little above normal snowfall at government camp (269” 140% of normal)

For Portland: three! Snow events 1 moderate (2-3”) 2 minor (1”) maybe in December

A high variability across the region but no extended dry periods

The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 7h

La Nina, though weak, is forecast to peak in Nov-Dec.

PDO is strongly negative. It either enhances or dampens the ENSO cycle. It should enhance our La Nina.

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The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 7h

Kyle uses sunspot cycles over decades to narrow down what he thinks the upcoming winter may look like. The last 20 years that were weak La Niña to Enso neutral go into his analysis for the upcoming winter. Since we’re decreasing in the sunspot cycle it’s pointing toward à La Niña.

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The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 7h

New tools being used by forecasters: Teleconnection. How oceanic-atmospheric couplings interact over long distances.

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The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 7h

Professor Kyle Dittmer is back presenting for the 26th time here.
He’s a Hydrologist-Meteorologist from the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission. Their main concern is river levels for fish passage. Last year wasn’t great for salmon. Accountability: last year his forecast wasn’t great.

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The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 7h

Tonja encourages everyone to be “Weather Ready” keep an emergency kit in your car. (Don’t forget TP)

The Tortured Florist Department 🍉🍎🌺⛓️⏰ @paintnpdx.bsky.social · 7h

The climate prediction center nearly equal chances of above/below/near normal both temp and precip. Note: this is for the full winter, averaged out. Basically:

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