I would not be surprised. We know he’ll underperform Spanberger, the question is how much.

There ARE a LOT of furious Dems in Northern Virginia who will be voting Blue no matter who lol.

The electorate in Midterm and Off-Year elections in the Trump era have typically been bluer and more educated.

For New Jersey. Look at their performance relative to the GOP. Dem’s are returning ballots at a higher rate and are building a bigger early vote firewall compared to 2024. Doesn’t mean Republicans can’t overcome it, it would require something pretty unprecedented to happen given the state’s history.

I agree with this take.

I think….

Zohran clears 50% in NYC
Sherrill wins NJ by at least 8%
Spanberger by double digits in VA Gov.

I feel Trump has caused many of us to avoid hedging on Dems but IDK..this cycle, these races just arnt favorable for the GOP.

Then again I’m done with making outright predictions lol. This is mostly me feeling my gut and reading the tea leaves.

In a vacuum I would agree, but together with in all the other fundamentals (Rejection of Party in White House, Blue State history, Trump’s general unfavorability). I think we could see a Dem over performance in New Jersey, Virginia and NYC Mayor. The exception of course being the Virginia AG Race.

I mean Dems are over-performing in early voting compared to 2021. I don’t think this race will be as close as some people think.

Mandani would win a head to head against either man and quite honestly there’s a good chance he still hits 50% even with it divided 3 ways. Ackman is wasting a LOT of energy and money to prevent the inevitable.

It happens to the best of us. The Freedom Caucus is a bunch of attention hungry buffoons, i would be genuinely shocked if Massie is the only one who votes down Johnson.

Bob Good is not in the current Congress. He lost his primary last year.

I believe he his trolling with this, since he literally won’t be voting for Johnson. He can’t vote for ANYONE for speaker lol.

But i agree with you I still think Johnson is in trouble.

If they get cute and start voting PRESENT it’s possible, but in all likelihood the rebels will vote for SOMEONE.

In order to get elected speaker you must get a majority of votes cast (voting present lowers that threshold).

I don’t disagree with this take. The past 48 hours has been so farcical and i know it’s just the start.

The vibe is Bluesky is very thoughtful, friendly, and respectful even in disagreement. I hope that energy continues next year as this place slowly transforms into a place to share information on shoe mending, how to drive around militia-controlled regions, and how to thwart detection by DHS drones.

It’s so nice here. :)

Thread for those new to BlueSky. First of all, welcome. It feels like a safer space, doesn’t it? But also perhaps a bit disorienting initially? Here’s some tips for getting your bearings.

You’re doing great!!

It feels that there is something about this Gaetz nomination that is about to drop. I’m curious to see if the Ethics Report leaks. His abrupt resignation is VERY suspicious.

It all just feels like Gaetz is a sacrificial lamb in order to divert attention from some of these other absurd nominations.