Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Michael Paarlberg

@mpaarlberg.bsky.social

3.3K followers 630 following 1.5K posts

Associate professor of political science, Virginia Commonwealth University. Senior Fellow, Center for International Policy. Assoc. Fellow, Institute for Policy Studies. Formerly The Guardian & Latin America advisor, Bernie Sanders. 교포 michaelpaarlberg.org

Posts Media Videos Starter Packs

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 17h

IMO there’s a difference between GOP politicians who are beholden to Trump and GOP voters, and it’s worth exploring which policies are unpopular with that base. Especially if the next candidate is not Trump himself.

1 1

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 17h

www.theguardian.com/world/2025/o...

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 19h

Not sure what you’re advocating. That we assume that everyone in the GOP is on board with bankrupting US farmers in order to enrich Bessent, that this is Trump’s stated policy, and therefore it’s not worth it to talking to conservatives about it?

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 19h

It’s perplexing how a country whose politics since 2008 has been shaped by the Iraq War is so easily falling for “if you don’t support a war in Venezuela then you’re defending Maduro” and “we have evidence he’s a cartel boss, just trust us”

2 9

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 19h

Fair enough but the defenders of the bailout are not openly saying we need to bail out Argentina in order to make Bessent richer. They claim it’s actually a wise investment for US exports, will strengthen the US’s position in the region vs. China, etc.

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 20h

A core concept of economics is moral hazard: that if you give money to someone to limit the consequences of their own stupid, risky behavior, you encourage them to take more risks in the future. This seems relevant for a country that has defaulted on its sovereign debt 9 times.

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 20h

The Argentina bailout obviously contradicts Trump’s nationalism - How is this America First? - but there’s been less commentary on how it contradicts the basic tenets of Reaganism. Libertarians have been conspicuously silent while never Trumpers like David Frum are openly endorsing it.

2 1 3

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 20h

Sociology Song

YouTube video by Nicocp92

youtu.be

1 1

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 1d

To model predictive outcomes for causal relationships but this is more common for certain methodological approaches eg game theory

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 1d

Surprise kiddos

3 4 26

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 1d

Meanwhile they’re firing federal workers for having a rainbow flag at their desks

Scott Horton @robertscotthorton.bsky.social · 2d

Kristi Noem orders a video in which she delivers a political speech attacking Democrats to be played on continuous loop in airports all across the US. This is a violation of the Hatch Act, which prohibits civil servants from engaging in political activity inside federal buildings or while on duty.

Molly Ploofkins @mollyploofkins.bsky.social · 3d

Video of Kristi Noem blaming Democrats for Trump's shutdown rolling out at TSA security checkpoints across the country.

4 7

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 2d

Someone tell Qatar the key to de-escalating the US-Venezuela conflict is making the Epstein case go away

Qatar Pushes U.S.-Venezuela Diplomacy as Trump Focuses on Military Action

www.nytimes.com

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 2d

Apropos of nothing in particular, it’s striking how often leftists’ critique of person X does not go any deeper than “person X is right wing!” which signals to me that they are satisfied with only talking to people who already agree with them

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 2d

Boluarte impeached, sadly before we could see if it is mathematically possible for a Peruvian president to have a negative approval rating

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 2d

Honestly if the Gaza peace deal holds, Trump would have a strong case for a Nobel, more than Obama when they gave it to him right after taking office and before starting 4 new military interventions, and certainly more than Kissinger after the Bangladesh genocide, Cambodia bombing and Chile coup.

2 3

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 2d

However it could also give false hope to a dream of quick regime change, be seen by Trump as an endorsement of his approach, solidify sanctions, and escalate military strikes. That outcome would likely only strengthen the Maduro regime and exacerbate the refugee crisis.

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 2d

The Nobel may help MCM consolidate her leadership of the opposition as a whole, and help unite them behind a coordinated strategy. It may protect her from the threats on her life. It may even help pressure Maduro to ease his repression, if not give up power.

1 3

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 2d

Blowing up boats in the Caribbean has not shaken the Maduro regime, and it’s unlikely that targeted strikes on Venezuela’s government itself would do so either. The military is the key player, but it is firmly ensconced in all the profitable sectors of the economy. It’s not breaking with Maduro.

1 4

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 2d

MCM has stood up against enormous odds and threats and has tried different approaches. But so far none have been successful. It is understandable why many conclude, after two stolen elections, that peaceful change is impossible, and US military force is the only option. But this too has failed.

1 3

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 2d

After she was banned, she rallied the opposition vote behind Edmundo Gonzalez, who won and was only stopped by Maduro through blatant election fraud.

1 2

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 2d

This is not to say MCM has only pursued insurrectionary measures. She worked toward elections last year that were negotiated with the US, and was banned from running because she clearly would have beaten Maduro in a fair race.

1 2

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 2d

MCM’s allies have been in close contact with the Trump administration and encouraging his military escalation, suggesting to him that the regime is about to fall if the US just tightens the screws. Past promises that more US pressure will provoke a coup against Maduro have failed to materialize.

1 3

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 2d

That said, if the award was meant to encourage peace, it may not work. MCM heads the opposition’s hardline faction, which has pushed for regime change by any means necessary. They have supported the US’s sectoral sanctions, which have exacerbated the suffering of the people but not dislodged Maduro.

1 3

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 2d

8 million Venezuelans have fled the country under his rule. Both Maduro’s mismanagement and US sanctions have contributed to this refugee exodus.

1 2

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 2d

It also shouldn’t be minimized that the human rights situation in Venezuela is dire and deserving of attention, regardless of Trump’s saber rattling. Maduro is a corrupt tyrant and his regime’s brutality in repressing its own citizens is matched only by its incompetence in keeping them fed.

1 2