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The Analyst

@militaryanalyst.bsky.social

4.6K followers 91 following 7.2K posts

Military analyst, economist, historian, enemy of dictators everywhere. Advisor to governments. ‘Devils Advocate Services’. 🇺🇦🏳️‍🌈🇬🇧 AVAILABLE ON: TheMilitaryAnalyst.com Originated on Telegram: https://t.me/militarystrategyanalysis

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 3d

After World War 2, the Netherlands thrived economically due to natural gas, leading to what economists call 'Dutch Disease.' Conversely, Russia's reliance on resource extraction under Putin resulted in economic decline and impending crisis amid ongoing military conflict from the very same disease.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN DEATH SPIRAL

themilitaryanalyst.com

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 11h

rates close to $46 as an average.
The war budget stands at 38% of state expenditure while health and education, economic investment and infrastructure have all been cut to accommodate it.
No part of the budget adds up. It’s a fairytale of wishful thinking and fake figures.

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 11h

is due to add a full 1% to the official figure (largely regarded as around ⅓ of the real figure).
The Russian GAO equivalent is claiming that the deficit will be twice what’s predicted at nearly 7 trillion roubles. The budget was also based on oil at $70pb when Russia is trading oil at a discounted

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 11h

a way to avoid permanent lay offs but it’s spreading alarmingly through most industries as they face falling sales and revenue.
The latest 2026 Budget has been heavily dissected in Russia as it already makes no sense. It targets official inflation at 4% when it’s over 8% and the 2% increase in VAT

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 11h

especially popular. Average food inflation is officially 9.46% but the reality is closer to 30%.
Meanwhile major companies from Gaz Trucks who made 20,000 a year, the countries largest cement manufacturer and others have cut workers pay and reduced their working hours by 1 day a week to 4. Its

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 11h

RUSSIA: CUCIAL PRODUCTS SOAR IN PRICE AS MAJOR COMPANIES CUT HOURS & PAY

Russians are the top five of potato consumers - 300lbs a year compared to the US figure of 150lbs. Prices this year have soared by 325% and Russians have been turning to cheaper products like pasta, even though it’s not

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 12h

www.wired.com/story/satell...

Satellites Are Leaking the World’s Secrets: Calls, Texts, Military and Corporate Data

With just $800 in basic equipment, researchers found a stunning variety of data—including thousands of T-Mobile users’ calls and texts and even US military communications—sent by satellites unencrypte...

www.wired.com

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 12h

They could buy more F-35’s and buy the F-47. They already make the fuselage for the F-35 for their own and other European air forces. They won’t buy Tempest without a production offset deal. It leaves them in an odd but flexible position. Maybe not as bad as they may initially feel.

The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 12h

the engineering competence to build a full 6th gen engine without Spanish or German help. Spain seems unbothered about FCAS going ahead as it doesn’t really want to spend the money even while it helps its engineering sector.
What can Germany do if the French ultimately end up going alone?

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 12h

involve a Middle East country keen to expand its aviation engineering sector on a major project like this - UAE top of the list. It will take longer so the French are already quietly proposing a Rafale.V6 that will manage through to the mid 2040’s.
Big problem for France is they have nobody with

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 12h

if it wants to join the Tempest program with the UK, Italy & Japan. It’s literally verging on too late if that program is to remain on track - and everyone is in agreement it must stay on schedule.
France could operate and produce a 6th Gen fighter by itself eventually - and would likely try and

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 12h

MORE NEWS ON THE FCAS 6th GEN FIGHTER

So a key meeting has been postponed indefinitely by France. This was seen as a critical point as the next stage in getting the program off the ground. Political mayhem in Paris the main cause.
Germany has been told it has a rapidly closing window of opportunity

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 12h

This has been on the cards for a long time - but what will finally trigger it?

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 17h

Well I went to a briefing this morning where the chance for Germany to join Tempest was said to be a rapidly closing window because it’s just too far along to accommodate a new partner so late in the process. If they don’t decide in a matter of weeks - it’s not happening.

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 17h

And many of them will end up on the wrong side of history again.

The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 17h

That’s up to Moldova whose territory it legally is. I would not worry. The zone is out of fuel, no electricity and is crippled by its own stupidity. Not long now.

The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 17h

Probably just as vulnerable and there will be fewer of them.

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 17h

It happens repeatedly. Blind or near blind obedience to Hitler, Mussolini, Trump, all took place in democracies - Stalin, the N.Korean leaders out of fear. Human minds can do amazing things to themselves if the fear or feel they can get away with it.

The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 18h

Maybe, just maybe, they have principles and feel they need to speak up before it’s too late. Not that it will do any good.

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 18h

The sooner he goes the better, and take the ex wife with him. But who would have them? And what damage might they do with there tell all book?

The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 20h

Their country has been completely invaded by Nazis who they thought were liberators - that lasted five minutes as the Einsatzgrüppen moved in and began their mass extermination program. They had motivation.

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 20h

that combined with the governments policy and expenditure plans, the deficit target will be missed completely and increase by at least 3 trillion roubles above the forecast.
Russia is close to entering stagflation - where domestic output is static or falling but prices don’t stop rising.

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 20h

RISSIAS EQUIVALENTOF THE GAO TELLS IT LIKE IT IS

The budget oversight office went out on a limb and warned that the tax increases imposed across Russia and other financial moves, will NOT be collectable. The decline in economic activity will retard any gain, and import/export figures clearly show,

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 20h

They should be former soldiers, pre-Ukraine war. Some small number were brought in for training purposes back in 2022 but after that they were largely ignored as the law was quite explicit. That law has now been changed. Most will be working n the general economy so their call up is risky.

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The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 20h

Did he fail the political purity test?

The Analyst @militaryanalyst.bsky.social · 21h

LATEST RUSSIAN ECONOMIC DATA SHOWS DEPTH OF CRISIS

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