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Reposted by Martin Sartorius

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 10d

Year-on-year retail sales volumes fell at a strong rate in October amid weak consumer confidence and Budget concerns - according to the latest CBI DTS. Retailers expect the 13-month-long downturn to extend into November.

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Martin Sartorius @martinsartorius.bsky.social · 15d

UK inflation came in lower than expected in September (at 3.8%), though it remains well above the BoE's 2% target. We expect inflation to slowly ease in the coming months, but we are unlikely to see a more substantial downshift until the first half of next year

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 15d

UK #CPI inflation held steady at 3.8% in the year to September, undershooting consensus expectations (of 4.0%). Core CPI inflation (excl. energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) eased slightly to 3.5% (from 3.6% in August)

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Reposted by Martin Sartorius

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Oct 1

Private sector activity is weak, hiring plans remain soft, and the investment appetite is muted. 📊

Our Q3 Economic Deep Dive helps business leaders cut through the noise on demand, costs & labour markets. 🔍

Exclusive to CBI members🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...

Economic deep dive Q3 2025 | CBI

Your quarterly guide to the UK economy; making sense of the key trends and what's driving them.

www.cbi.org.uk

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Martin Sartorius @martinsartorius.bsky.social · Oct 2

Activity in the FS sector dropped at its quickest rate in five years in Q3, but firms expect a strong rebound next quarter.

Check out the findings from the survey 👇🧵

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Oct 2

Business volumes in the financial services sector fell at the fastest rate since June 2020 in Q3 2025. However, firms expect volumes growth to make a strong recovery next quarter, according to the latest CBI Financial Services Survey.

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Martin Sartorius @martinsartorius.bsky.social · Sep 25

September marked the twelfth straight month of falling annual retail sales, according to our latest DTS. Weak demand conditions are weighing on sales, while US tariffs are adding pressure for some retailers.

Check out the results of the survey 👇

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Sep 25

#Retail sales volumes fell year-on-year for the 12th month in a row in September, highlighting persistently weak demand conditions in the sector, according to the latest CBI DTS. Sales are expected to decline at a slightly faster rate next month.

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Reposted by Martin Sartorius

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Sep 19

Since last year’s Autumn Budget hiked labour costs, UK businesses have faced a tough balancing act. How are they responding?

Read our latest blog 👉
www.cbi.org.uk/articles/the...

The business impact of the NICs increase | CBI

We analyse business responses collected from our regular surveys about the impact of the hikes in National Insurance Contributions.

www.cbi.org.uk

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Reposted by Martin Sartorius

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Sep 19

#Retail sales volumes rose by 0.5% m/m in August (from 0.5% in July), marking a third consecutive month of growth. Underlying momentum was more muted, however, with sales falling by 0.1% over the three months to August.

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Martin Sartorius @martinsartorius.bsky.social · Sep 18

BoE MPC’s rate hold today was widely expected. A noteworthy nod to data dependency in the minutes, alongside unchanged forward guidance, suggests upcoming inflation and labour market data will be key to a possible Q4 cut

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Martin Sartorius @martinsartorius.bsky.social · Sep 17

We expect that the Bank of England MPC will keep interest rates unchanged tomorrow. Going forward, the MPC faces a delicate balance between signs of a cooling labour market and the risk of price pressures remaining stubbornly high

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Martin Sartorius @martinsartorius.bsky.social · Sep 17

UK inflation remained elevated in August at 3.8%. Higher food and energy prices, alongside passthrough from increased labour costs, will continue putting upward pressure on prices in the near term

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Sep 17

UK CPI #inflation remained steady at 3.8% in the year to August (unchanged from July), in line with consensus expectations. Core CPI inflation (excl. energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) rose by 3.6% (down from 3.8% in July)

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Reposted by Martin Sartorius

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Sep 12

UK GDP was flat in July, in line with market expectations, after a robust 0.4% rise in June. GDP rose 0.2% in the three months to July, and is 1.4% higher than in July 2024, painting the picture of an economy that is growing, if only moderately.

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Reposted by Martin Sartorius

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Aug 27

#Retail sales volumes fell at a strong pace in the year to August – the eleventh month in a row of decline – according to the CBI’s latest quarterly Distributive Trades Survey. Retailers expect the pace of decline to ease in September.

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Reposted by Martin Sartorius

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Aug 20

UK #CPI inflation rose by 3.8% in the year to July (from 3.6% in June), slightly above consensus expectations. Core CPI inflation (excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) ticked up to 3.8% (from 3.7% in June)

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Martin Sartorius @martinsartorius.bsky.social · Aug 14

We expect economic growth to be modest through the rest of the year. Our surveys suggest that underlying activity remains sluggish due to persistently weak demand and gloomy sentiment

Learn more about our view of the outlook 👇
www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

Headwinds hit UK growth prospects - CBI UK Economist Forecast June 2025 | CBI

Headwinds hit UK growth prospects - CBI UK Economist Forecast June 2025

www.cbi.org.uk

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Martin Sartorius @martinsartorius.bsky.social · Aug 14

GDP growth in Q2 (0.3% q/q) was slightly stronger than expected in our latest forecast (0.2%). Under the hood, though, growth was mostly driven government spending, while private demand was weak

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Aug 14

UK GDP grew by 0.3% q/q in Q2 2025, beating consensus estimates of 0.1%. Nonetheless, this marked a slowdown from the 0.7% growth seen over Q1 2025.

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Martin Sartorius @martinsartorius.bsky.social · Aug 7

One interesting nugget from today's MPC minutes is that there were two rounds of voting to reach a decision. From what I can gather, this is the first time the MPC has held two votes on interest rates since the BoE became independent - underlining just how finely balanced the decision to cut was

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Martin Sartorius @martinsartorius.bsky.social · Aug 7

The BoE MPC voted to reduce rates to 4% today, in line with our latest forecast's expectations. The story of the Bank's projections was broadly unchanged from May, with GDP growth remaining subdued and inflation gradually returning to the 2% target after this year's bump

🧵 of key takeaways 👇

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Aug 7

The Bank of England’s MPC voted 5-4 to cut Bank Rate by 25bp to 4.00%. The majority bloc voted for an interest rate reduction due to signs of disinflationary pressures stemming from weak activity and cooling labour market conditions

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Reposted by Martin Sartorius

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Jul 30

📉 Private sector firms expect activity to fall again through October.
The latest CBI Growth Indicator shows continued weakness across the economy, extending a run of negative sentiment that began in late 2024

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Reposted by Martin Sartorius

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Jul 28

#Retail sales volumes fell strongly in the year to July, according to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey. Retailers expect the ongoing downturn to extend into August.

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Martin Sartorius @martinsartorius.bsky.social · Jul 16

Check out my full response to the data
www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

CBI responds to latest inflation data for June 2025 | CBI

CBI responds to latest inflation data for June 2025

www.cbi.org.uk

Martin Sartorius @martinsartorius.bsky.social · Jul 16

UK #inflation picked up to 3.6% in June (from 3.4% in May), mostly reflecting fuel pump price base effects. Price pressures are expected to remain firm this year, due to higher household energy prices and the passthrough of increased labour costs

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Jul 16

UK CPI inflation rose by a stronger-than-expected 3.6% in June (from 3.4% in May), marking the highest rate since January 2024. Core CPI inflation also increased to 3.7%, from 3.5% in the previous month

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Reposted by Martin Sartorius

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Jul 11

UK GDP contracted by 0.1% in May, marking the second consecutive monthly decline after a 0.3% fall in April, though this follows a surprisingly strong first quarter. GDP grew by 0.5% in the three months to May.

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Martin Sartorius @martinsartorius.bsky.social · Jun 26

Annual sales volumes fell at a fast pace in the retail and broader distribution sector, according to our latest DTS. Many firms continue to report that consumer caution is holding back sales

Key takeaways from the survey 🧵👇

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Jun 26

#Retail sales volumes fell at a sharp rate in the year to June, according to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey. Retailers expect sales to decline rapidly again next month.

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Reposted by Martin Sartorius

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Jun 24

The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that #manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to June, at a similarly steep pace to the three months to May. Looking ahead, firms anticipate that the pace of decline will slow over the next three months

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Martin Sartorius @martinsartorius.bsky.social · Jun 18

Our latest UK forecast has been released! Check out the below thread for the key takeaways from our projections for GDP, inflation, interest rates, and more

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Jun 18

🚨 New UK economic forecast is out! 🚨

We project that the UK will see modest GDP growth of 1.2% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026. The economy is facing stiff domestic & international headwinds that will weigh on activity.

Here’s what you need to know 👇🧵

#UKeconomy #Econsky #Econ

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