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Reposted by Mark Zandi

Better Markets @bettermarkets.bsky.social · Sep 19

"The shape of the financial system has shifted from where it was in the Great Financial Crisis, from a bank-centric hub-and-spoke system with the banks in the middle and everyone else around the periphery to more of a web, with private credit more central in that web." - @markzandi.bsky.social

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Reposted by Mark Zandi

Washington Post Opinions @postopinions.bsky.social · Aug 1

What have we learned from these first few months of talks?

@scottlincicome.bsky.social of @cato.org, Ramesh Ponnuru, @natasharsarin.bsky.social, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social, @justinwolfers.bsky.social and @markzandi.bsky.social weigh in:

Opinion | Trump’s tariff deadline: Six experts weigh in

Donald Trump’s deadline for countries to strike a trade deal with the U.S. or face hefty tariffs has arrived.

wapo.st

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Reposted by Mark Zandi

Fast Company @fastcompany.com · Jul 19

Mark Zandi: “The housing downturn to date has been mostly about the depressed existing home sales. New home sales, housing completions, and house prices have held up well—that’s about to change.” http://f-st.co/M6nFvD7

Housing market ‘red flare’: Moody’s chief economist sees home price declines spreading

Mark Zandi: 'The housing downturn to date has been mostly about the depressed existing home sales. New home sales, housing completions, and house prices have held up well—that’s about to change.”

f-st.co

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Mark Zandi @markzandi.bsky.social · Jul 14

Housing will thus soon be a full-blown headwind to broader economic growth, adding to the growing list of reasons to be worried about the economy’s prospects later this year and early next.

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Mark Zandi @markzandi.bsky.social · Jul 14

House price growth had held up well. But this, too, is changing, as prices have gone sideways and are set to fall. 7% is hammering demand, and there are more listings. Given their demographic and job situations, locked-in homeowners must move. They can only work around these needs for so long.

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Mark Zandi @markzandi.bsky.social · Jul 14

Home sales are already uber depressed, but homebuilders providing rate buydowns had been propping sales up. They are giving up. It’s simply too expensive. A big tell is that many builders are delaying their land purchases from the land banks. New home sales, starts, and completions will soon fall.

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Mark Zandi @markzandi.bsky.social · Jul 14

I sent off a yellow flare on the housing market in a post a couple of weeks ago, but I now think a red flare is more appropriate. Home sales, homebuilding, and even house prices are set to slump unless mortgage rates decline materially from their current near 7% soon. That, however, seems unlikely.

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Reposted by Mark Zandi

EconoFact @econofact.bsky.social · Jul 3

How do trade, spending cuts, and policy uncertainty affect growth? @markzandi.bsky.social of Moodys Analytics warns that while a recession isn't imminent, long-term U.S. growth could suffer.
Listen here: econofact.org/podcast/thro...

Throttling Back: The Long and Short-run Economic Effects of Continued Uncertainty | Econofact Chats

A discussion with Mark Zandi on how continued uncertainty could affect the U.S. economy over the coming months, and over the longer term.

econofact.org

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Mark Zandi @markzandi.bsky.social · Jun 12

One caveat is that seasonally adjusting the UI data is hard given how claims got scrambled in the pandemic. So-called residual seasonality. Non-SA UI claims are not too much higher than in recent years. But if initial claims rise even a bit further in the coming weeks, it's time to buckle up.

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Mark Zandi @markzandi.bsky.social · Jun 12

Another sign of a softer job market is rising unemployment insurance claims. Continuining claims are up, and signaling a slump in hiring. Initial claims are also up as of late. Anything north of their current near 250k per week would suggest layoffs are rising, and the job market is stalling.

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Mark Zandi @markzandi.bsky.social · Jun 9

It also means the economy’s real potential GDP growth – that pace of growth consistent with stable inflation – is much lower. It is currently closer to 1% than the 2% we have come to think of as typical. Think of what this means for everything from asset returns to our already dire fiscal outlook.

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Mark Zandi @markzandi.bsky.social · Jun 9

The implications of a flagging labor force are disconcerting. It means serious disruptions to businesses that rely on immigrant labor, ranging from construction and agriculture to hospitality and retailing. It also means higher inflation, just when the higher tariffs are set to push up prices.

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Mark Zandi @markzandi.bsky.social · Jun 9

Given the new population controls, measuring labor force growth is tricky, but by my calculation, it’s at a standstill. Look to the severe restrictions on immigration. This time last year, the foreign-born labor force was growing 5%. It’s now declining. The native-born labor force remains moribund.

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Mark Zandi @markzandi.bsky.social · Jun 9

The more I cogitate on the May jobs report, released last Friday by the BLS, the more uncomfortable I get about the economy’s prospects. There are a bunch of reasons why (listen to this week’s Inside Economics podcast), but high on the list is the sharp drop-off in labor force growth.

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Mark Zandi @markzandi.bsky.social · Jun 6

None of this signals recession, but it does signal the job market and economy are increasingly fragile as the fallout from the global trade war intensifies.

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Mark Zandi @markzandi.bsky.social · Jun 6

It isn’t great that the job gains are almost entirely in the healthcare and leisure and hospitality industries. At this pace of job growth, unemployment will continue to push higher, and this, despite weaker labor force participation.

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Mark Zandi @markzandi.bsky.social · Jun 6

The job market is steadily but surely throttling back. Monthly job gains are moderating, and most telling, the gains are being consistently revised lower, and not by a little bit. Indeed, after revision, monthly job gains appear to be closing in on 100k.

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