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Marios Richards

@mariosrichards.bsky.social

1.8K followers 1.2K following 11K posts

Frequently wrong. Please correct (effort involved appreciated). Experiments with Data Visualisation: https://github.com/MariosRichards/BES_analysis_code https://medium.com/@mariosrichards https://mariosrichards.substack.com/

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 3h

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 5h

I remember *really* oldskool space games like Imperium Galactica where they'd blown a significant portion of their budget on a handful of cg animated transitions and would trot them out whenever they could (but with a toggle to turn them off if you preferred).

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 5h

Yeah - Starfield's problem isn't loading screens per se - if you occasionally had to wait a few seconds while it loaded up the next region, that wouldn't be offensive.

The problem is the way the transitions were managed - a game of exploration ... where you don't explore, but merely transitition.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 6h

PravdAI

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 6h

Well, but I'm sure the American flag was only there ironically.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 6h

Don't collapse the wavefunction.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 11h

Terraforming.

(still struggling to come up with a good portmanteau here - Authoriforming is the best I've got)

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 15h

Closing positional distance can reduce losses in the very short-term ... but it puts you in an even more vulnerable position if (when) your popularity/perceived competence takes a hit.

Even with parties you're very friendly with, you don't want to get *too close*.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 15h

That - and consequences.

Like, if you're in 2021 you can look at the electorate and even without knowing what will happen in the future know that the consequence of the Conservatives getting less popular is that 40% of their electorate will switch from Con-1st/Ref-2nd to Ref-1st/Con-2nd.

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 15h

Oops - this is the version with full demographic weighting (another one of those charts where adding weighting took 80% of the development time but spotting the difference requires very good eyesight)

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 16h

Sure - but it's worse than that, preferences are contingent.

A person can be a lifelong Conservative voter - but if all that time they placed a Reform/LD-like party in close second place - they were *always* also 'latent' Reform/LD voter.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 16h

But there's a limit to *how much* you can improve on that even if you had *unlimited polling cash* just because you can't extract information from voters that isn't there.

FPTP actively destroys information for both voters and politicians and voters just legitimately can't see the future.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 16h

I think you can improve on "GE Results As The Only Measure Of The Electorate" as a measure of how the electorate might vote

(i) under different voting systems
(ii) in the next GE

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 17h

Takeaway - Labour should be cautious (expect vote to continue to fragment, maybe think about what that means) and Conservatives should ... keep their CVs updates.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 17h

Shame we don't have a longer dataset (ptv/like questions were asked of different sets of respondents in early BES waves and ptv isn't in BESf2f 2010).

Would have been useful to have seen this for (i) very early UKIP and (ii) LD's going into/in govt.

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 17h

GEs tend to ‘reset’ the position of (2) and (3) and boost (1), but otherwise the trends is convergence aka “fragmentation”.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 17h

@dylandifford.bsky.social @ewanhoyle.bsky.social

I've had a look at the (mean) respondent-level gaps between party Like and PTV evaluations over time

~3 clusters

(1) Parties of Govt (Lab/Con/SNP) … & Reform in 2025
(2) 3rd Parties (LD/PC/UKIP/Reform until 2025)
(3) Green Party

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 17h

Have we had any updates on *why* PA has been proscribed?

I vaguely recall some months ago the argument was that there was key motivating evidence they couldn't quite release just yet.

Are we still waiting for that? Do we have a timeline?

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 20h

I'm afraid I'm a big believer in "no smokey dance without flamey writhe".

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 1d

No *Wild* Kings.

(See also the danger of *Wild* Religion, much better to trap it inside an ossifying state bureaucracy)

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 1d

Counterpoint - great day for the Italian Futurists.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 1d

Ah, so you're saying they're Too Woke and need to get More Tough On Immigration? Just as I suspected.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 1d

How would you ... just not be worrying about the candles throughout the whole thing?

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 1d

Also - very, very poor fire safety.

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 1d

I feel like that would be one of the combat-barks.