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Kelly Butt

Kelly Butt

@kellybutt.bsky.social

1.1K followers 190 following 690 posts

Severe weather watcher for Environment & Climate Change Canada | Following #NLwx from St. John's, NL | Picture taker | Bird watcher. https://capebretonweather.ca/station.html#id=001D0A7122F2 https://kellybutt.artfunnels.com/

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Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 5h

Our next #NLwx maker will be a strong Fall storm that moves over the island Tuesday into Wednesday.

Rainfall is likely in the 30-50mm+ range for most of the island.

West & central may see wet snow mixed in w/rain on Wednesday

Wind gusts will be near or in excess of 100 km/h, esp for coastal areas

Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 3d

⚠️=NEW=⚠️ Tropical cyclone information statement issued for the southern Avalon. Continued for offshore regions.

Hurricane #Melissa will become post-tropical and will pass near the Avalon Peninsula Friday night/overnight.

weather.gc.ca/hurricane/st...

#NLwx

The next information statement will be issued by 9:30 p.m. NDT.

Hurricane Melissa is accelerating to the north-northeast and will pass west of Bermuda tonight. Melissa will then reach the Canadian Maritime and Newfoundland waters Friday afternoon, passing close to the southeastern Avalon Peninsula Friday night into early Saturday. A period of heavy rain, strong winds along with heavy surf are expected.

1. Summary of basic information at 3:30 p.m. NDT.

Location: 29.0 North 70.9 West.

About 703 kilometres southwest of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds: 167 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: north-northeast at 44 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 965 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

The hurricane is expected to transition to a post-tropical storm prior to passing near or south of the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland early on Saturday. If it ends up tracking further west, heavy rain and stronger winds may be felt for parts of the Avalon. There will be large waves and heavy surf for the southern coast of Newfoundland beginning Friday and continuing on Saturday.

a. Wind.

There is a chance that parts of the Avalon could be within the storm circulation and therefore would see some moderate winds. If the centre of the storm stays south of land, the highest winds would not be much of a concern. Regardless, gusts reaching 80 km/h are possible for parts of the southern and eastern coastline of the Avalon Peninsula Friday night. Strong southwest winds will also persist across the region on Saturday.

b. Rainfall.

With Melissa expected to track near or just offshore of the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland, a short period of heavy rain is possible over a 3 to 6 hour window. There will be some enhancement of rain associated with the low pressure system over New England that will give period of heavy rain from southeastern Ontario towards Newfoundland and Labrador.

Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 4d

2. If this setup holds, that will keep the strongest winds offshore to the east of Nfld. Rain & gusty winds would then be the story.

However, uncertainty remains and a shift NW in the track would potentially bring the strong winds over eastern Nfld.

#NLwx #StayTuned

Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 4d

1. Latest EPS & GEFS for Hurricane #Melissa.

The general consensus keeps (what will be likely) post tropical storm Melissa just to the SE & east of the Avalon.

Melissa will also be interacting with a non-tropical low over Atlantic Canada.

#NLwx

Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 10d

2. Rainfall amounts overnight tonight to Saturday afternoon:

Southern Avalon: 50-80mm+

Northern Avalon: 25-45mm.

Burin & Bonavista Peninsulas + Clarenville: 20-40mm.

Terra Nova & Bonavista North: 10-20mm.

#NLwx

Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 10d

1. A good dose of much needed rainfall is on the way for eastern Nfld.

Showers begin tonight, with heavier rain arriving overnight or Friday AM.

Intermittent moderate to heavy rain continues thru Friday night & Saturday AM. Rain tapers to showers early Sat afternoon.

#NLwx

Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 10d

⚠️=NEW=⚠️ Rainfall warning issued for the southern Avalon Peninsula.

Rainfall: 40-60mm, higher in thunderstorms.

Rainfall rates possibly 10-20mm/hr.

Timeframe: Friday morning to early Saturday afternoon.

#NLwx

WWCN16 CWHX 230743
RAINFALL WARNING
FOR NEWFOUNDLAND
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 5:13 A.M. NDT THURSDAY 23 OCTOBER 2025.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RAINFALL WARNING FOR:
=NEW= AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHEAST
=NEW= AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHWEST.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==

RAIN, AT TIMES HEAVY, IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS: SOUTHERN AVALON PENINSULA.

TOTAL RAINFALL: 40 TO 60 MM, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

TIME SPAN: FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON

REMARKS: RAIN WILL INTENSIFY ON FRIDAY MORNING, WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF 10 TO 20 MM PER HOUR POSSIBLE OVER SOME LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER SOME AREAS, PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND NOON ON SATURDAY.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND WATER POOLING ON ROADS.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE ISSUED WHEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALERTS AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY
ENVIRONMENT CANADA. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER, SEND AN EMAIL TO
NLSTORM(AT)EC.GC.CA OR POST REPORTS ON X USING (HASH)NLWX.

HTTP://WEATHER.GC.CA

END/ASPC

Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 12d

This wasn't too bad. Struggled with the zoom.

Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 12d

Clear #NLwx for taking photos of Comet C/2025 A6 (Lemmon).

A bit tricky, since it was only faintly visible with binoculars.

#cometlemmon

Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 14d

Lots around over this way. There were quite a few robins at Virginia Lake today, too. Then again, I go birdwatching, and look for 'em, haha.

Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 14d

Thanks!

Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 14d

American Robin enjoying some dogberries on this cool drizzly fall day.

#nlwx #birds

Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 14d

Parts of the Burin Peninsula is also seeing some sunshine this morning.

#NLwx

Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 14d

Southwestern & western Nfld and the western side of the GNP will feature the most pleasant #NLwx today.

Mainly sunny or sun & cloud for these areas, with temps in the low double digits to mid teens.

Skies should clear later today for parts of the south coast as well.

Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 15d

Red hues and water droplets.

#nlwx

Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 22d

Labrador today:

Western: Mostly cloudy w/breaks & chance of flurries. Temp: 3°

Central: Showers ending this afternoon, then sun & cloud. Temp: 7°

SE: AM sun & cloud, aft: Showers/rain (5-10mm). Temp: 7-11°

Mid-north coast: Mainly sunny. Temp: 4-6°

#NLwx

Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 22d

#NLwx today:

Eastern: Mainly sunny or sun & cloud. Temps: 12-15°

Central & south: Sun & cloud, increasing cloud. Temp: 11-14°

Western & GNP: AM sun & cloud. Aft: Cloudy w/showers beginning. Temp: 8-12°

Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 25d

You may get a bit of sun in the afternoon. Fog & drizzle in the morning. Temp around 17° in the afternoon.

Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 26d

Enjoy the warmth tomorrow.

Periods of rain sweep across the island Wednesday night & Thursday.

Temps start out warm in central & east Thurs AM, but drop sharply thru the day.

Temps remain warm on the Avalon most of the day, cooling in the late aft or evening.

#NLwx

Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 26d

A repeat of today's #NLwx for most of Newfoundland is on tap tomorrow:

Mainly sunny skies for central & east. Western Nfld will see increasing cloud & chances of showers (rain tomorrow night).

Temps: Upper teens to low 20s across the board!

Reposted by Kelly Butt

Rodney Barney @rcbstormpost.bsky.social · 26d

=NEW MONTHLY RECORDS=

Tuesday brought the warmth to the island. A number of locations seeing their warmest October day on record. 📈

Badger 26.4°C just 0.8°C short of highest reliable official October temperature rec for all of NL (27.2°C, Grand Falls, Oct 14, 1938). 🌡️

#nlwx

Reposted by Kelly Butt

Rodney Barney @rcbstormpost.bsky.social · 27d

=NEW MONTHLY RECORDS=

Very warm Monday in #Labrador, with several locations setting new October extreme maximum temperature records. 📈

Nain auto station WFP peaked at 25.0°C – just 1.1°C short of the October record for all of Labrador (26.1°C at Mary's Hr, Oct 7, 2023). 🌡️

#nlwx

Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 27d

Summer like #NLwx returns Tuesday & Wednesday!

Highs across the island will be in the upper teens & low 20s, with inland areas pushing the mid 20s.

Wednesday will be similar, with upper teens & low 20s.

Warm air will exit on Thursday with the passage of some showers.

Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 27d

St. John's east PWS low temperature of -0.9°C this morning.

That marks the first freeze of the season and coldest temperature since May 8 at -2.1°C

capebretonweather.ca/station.html...

#NLwx

Current Station

capebretonweather.ca

Kelly Butt @kellybutt.bsky.social · 28d

Warm air from eastern North America arrives for #NLwx this week!

Monday:
Lab: Upper teens/low 20s
Nfld: low-upper teens

Temps drop for Lab on Tuesday, but Nfld: Low-mid 20s.

Nfld on Wednesday: Upper teens & low 20s.

Temps drop Thursday, with mid teens in the AM in the east.