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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 4h

Anyway, good Bloomberg piece on the next country coming hot off the frontier-market production line: www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Uzbekistan Draws In Global Investors Including Citibank, JPMorgan

Uzbekistan is attracting an unprecedented level of investment as the Central Asian country’s leader aims to double the size of the economy.

www.bloomberg.com

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 4h

I met Uzbek companies this week and it is funny how often the message was ‘the next issuance/listing is soon and just to be very very clear we have nothing Russia related in our business to endanger that issuance/listing’. For capital raising purposes Russia may as well not be on that map anymore.

Maximilian Hess @maxhess.bsky.social · 4h

To quote a colleague, "Tamerlane would be proud"

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 1d

It's IMF meetings week, a reminder that a vehicle significantly given over to exposure to Argentina these days also does some other countries sometimes, including a sideline in DM macro advisory www.ft.com/content/0659...

UK risks higher inflation becoming entrenched, IMF warns

Bank of England should not lower interest rates before price pressure shows signs of easing, says chief economist

www.ft.com

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 1d

Bondholders want access to 5% of the value of Ethiopia's exports above an IMF forecast baseline over the next three years, then 2% thereafter until 2040. Ethiopia wants it to be 1.5% (and capped yearly at $30mn) to 2036. Looks like haggling about who gets the upside if gold stays aloft.

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 1d

Gold prices: also a factor in Ethiopia's debt restructuring. In return for a haircut, bondholders want a warrant that would be linked to export growth. Talks on that have just stalled but there is clearly one export in particular that stands out. And it's not coffee.

Ethiopian table of goods and services exports, 2023/24 to 2024/25. Coffee went from $1.4bn to $2.6bn. Gold went from $408mn... to $3.5bn

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 1d

Great example not of projection per se but of what is sometimes called the mirror image in international relations theory - interpreting others as if they share your own institutional and cultural biases.

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 1d

Imagine the idea of a leader who is so checked out of his own trade policies that in the ensuing infighting the pugnacious commerce ministry is pitted against the more cautious finance ministry. www.ft.com/content/fbc5...

Earlier on Monday, Bessent said it was possible Xi was unaware of the rare earths announcement. The senior US official said there was a fight between government agencies in Beijing that was affecting US-China negotiations.
"We think there's an internal dynamic between the finance ministry and the commerce ministry. Their commerce department - including Li - is much more provocative," the senior official told the FT.

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Reposted by Joseph Cotterill

Tony Tassell @tonytassell.bsky.social · 2d

Remarkable words here from David Webb, who has done so much for corporate governance in HK and Asia. Due to serious illness, he is shutting down his website and transferring to a substack. Have huge respect for what he has done over the years webb-site.com/articles/shu...

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 5d

Percentage of 401k assets in equities?

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 5d

“Bessent told Fox News Thursday that he thinks the peso is undervalued.”

Again, even investors who are very positive on Argentina dollar bonds think it's overvalued by at least 20% and that the band is not long for this world. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Bessent’s Big Gamble on Argentina Has a Narrow Road to Pay Off

For Scott Bessent’s $20 billion bet on Argentina to pay off, a lot of things have to go right – things that in the past, in Argentina, have tended to go wrong.

www.bloomberg.com

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 5d

“We go long BONTE 30s FX Unhedged” - US investment banks do not miss a trick

(The Bonte is peso-denominated debt issued this year that foreign investors could buy in dollars)

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 5d

On the one hand, direct peso buying is putting your money where your mouth is on currency support (and rates on peso paper are very high). On the other hand… do it a lot and you’re sat on a lot of pesos if it all goes south in the end.

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 5d

Yep - Mexico 1995 was loans and guarantees versus direct FX buying for example. And only four direct interventions in any currency since 1996, counting Argentina today.

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 5d

Sorry that should be selling yen in 2011!

(Last major direct FX intervention by the ESF was * the yen in 2011 (alongside the Fed).)

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 6d

Not even some of the more bullish Argentine bondholders like the band very much! Sounds like a way to get the market to stop testing the band before the elections and then sort it out.

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 6d

Scott Bessent has really nailed the US to the mast of Argentina’s peso policy today - not just confirming the $20bn swap line, but that the US directly bought pesos today. He has also declared the current band “fit for purpose”: x.com/secscottbess...

x.com

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 6d

"This is not the first program, but if I put my optimistic hat on, I can maybe say that it could be the last program of the IMF with Argentina," Georgieva said.

That's a very big Optimistic Hat.

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 6d

I missed that Georgieva saying the US could lend SDRs to Argentina, like Qatar did in 2023. The ESF does have a lot more SDRs than liquid dollars. Ironically however... that Qatar support was aimed specifically at covering a payment by Argentina to the IMF! www.reuters.com/world/americ...

www.reuters.com

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 6d

Cape comics is an industry with a notoriously difficult history over creator rights (and scandals over tracing and swiping of images over the years). So this is a really interesting red line. www.theverge.com/news/797540/...

DC Comics won’t support generative AI: ‘not now, not ever’

“People have an instinctive reaction to what feels authentic.”

www.theverge.com

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 7d

Brb looking for some steampunk rocket boosters.

AI Overview for "how to achieve steampunk manned spaceflight“

To achieve steampunk-style manned spaceflight, you must combine real engineering principles with steampunk aesthetics by using steam-powered propulsion, intricate mechanical designs, and Victorian-era styling. This can be accomplished by modifying existing spaceflight technology with gears, polished brass, and ornate detailing, designing spacecraft that look like airships, and developing steam-powered thrusters that utilize mined water as fuel

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Reposted by Joseph Cotterill

Daniel Knowles @dlknowles.bsky.social · 7d

My piece - to be in this week's issue - on the South Shore raid and what it says about Donald Trump's America:

www.economist.com/united-state...

My view is this stuff is as much or more about creating content and fear than it is about actually catching immigrants, though that's a goal too

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 7d

The US has cut off diplomatic engagement with Venezuela and might move strikes at sea landward at any time (www.bloomberg.com/news/article...). So it's interesting Venezuela's defaulted, nearly worthless bonds are up about 50% year to date at this point (or about 25 cents on the dollar).

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 7d

Will we stop getting Carly Simon Disease over their catch up growth? No. Well, shall we take advantage anyway or at the very least try not to kneecap certain exports such as services to these growing economies? Also no.

Dan Davies @dsquareddigest.bsky.social · 7d

Perhaps not the main point but I always hate it when people view it as a sign of failure when poorer countries grow faster. There is absolutely no intrinsic reason why Poland should have lower income than the UK or any other EU country forever, and that means it will have to grow faster sometimes

Adam Bienkov @adambienkov.bsky.social · 7d

"15 years ago, Polish workers came here to find opportunity. Now Poland is growing twice as fast as we are," says Kemi Badenoch.

Any ideas what may have happened in the interim?

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Reposted by Joseph Cotterill

Dan Davies @dsquareddigest.bsky.social · 7d

Perhaps not the main point but I always hate it when people view it as a sign of failure when poorer countries grow faster. There is absolutely no intrinsic reason why Poland should have lower income than the UK or any other EU country forever, and that means it will have to grow faster sometimes

Adam Bienkov @adambienkov.bsky.social · 7d

"15 years ago, Polish workers came here to find opportunity. Now Poland is growing twice as fast as we are," says Kemi Badenoch.

Any ideas what may have happened in the interim?

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 8d

Angola did another sovereign debt repo. This time transferring dollar bonds to a Chinese bank for renminbi, which is a twist on the formula. (From a prospectus for a bond sale today)

ICBCS Repo

On 29 September 2025, Angola and ICBC Standard Bank plc ("ICBCS") entered into (i) a 15 calendar month repurchase transaction, (ii) an 18 calendar month repurchase transaction, (iii) a 21 calendar month repurchase transaction and (iv) a 24 calendar month repurchase transaction (the "Repos") documented by way of four separate confirmations (the "Repo Confirmations") and a Global Master Repurchase Agreement (2011 version) and an Annex I thereto (the "GMRA" and together with the Repo Confirmations, the "Repo Agreement"). The Repo Agreement is subject to English law and resolution of any disputes by international arbitration.

Under the Repos, following satisfaction of certain conditions precedent, Angola will transfer to ICBCS a nominal amount of zero coupon notes equal to approximately U.S.$312,500,000 issued locally by Angola through Bolsa de Dívida e Valores de Angola (the "Repo Notes"), and in return receive from ICBCS a financing amount of approximately RMB 891,250,000 (the "Purchase Price"). Ownership of the Repo Notes will pass to ICBCS on a full title transfer basis and the Repos provide that ICBCS has the right to sell or otherwise dispose of its ownership interest in the Repo Notes.

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