Author | Lightnews

jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 12h

the three components to making an llm work are
1. researchers who work out the tech for it
2. creatives who create the input for its learning models
3. investors who bankroll the tech

the thing we're getting most wrong is rewarding [3] and looking to them for expertise, while underutilizing [1]/[2]

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jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 12h

my ai understanding is:

- llm prediction is a cool tech that has been studied for 60+ years
- we've reached a point where putting $bn's into it crosses a relevant inflection point
- a large amount of [capitalism] is happening around this. (theft, exaggeration, bubbles)

i think that's about it?

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jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 1d

or that there are fewer moving pieces for. like, it's much much much easier to land a spacecraft on the moon than it is to understand how ocean currents respond to changes in global temperature.

jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 1d

there's an awful lot of stuff we can either convincingly study ceteris paribus, that we see happen regularly, or that we have actual agency over as humans.

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jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 1d

one nice thing about social media showing me only immediate threats to the entire world is i don't have to worry about league of legends spoilers anymore

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jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 1d

there is a way to drive through this crowd of people--but it is strewn with obstacles

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jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 1d

if the pacific ocean breaks then sure, that kills humans. but also some wetlands can break and kill endangered species and that is actually a bad thing too.

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jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 1d

oh and also a lot of the things that break are just completely disregarded. a lot of the "damage" numbers consider ~[human life and property damage and zero other things]. realistically, the ones we act on care about even less than that, and focus on first world damage and loss of life.

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jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 1d

and how do you even publish a scientific paper which says an ocean current will stop working if the temperature increases 1 degree. like, where does the scientific method tell you how to do that. this isn't a thing we can study ceteris paribus, so now you have to get into statistical forecasting.

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jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 1d

so the 3 degree at 2050 number ends up being ~"this is a good response to all of the near-certain science we have" but does not consider "this is a giant fucking planet and we don't fund climate science all that much and some of the shit we haven't studied will break at an undetermined time".

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jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 1d

also our method of inquiry and conversation about this is resistant to people broadly understanding that. if someone does some research and finds with 90% confidence that a tidal current will stop working at 1 degree celcius increase, there's a LOT in the way of us updating to consider that.

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jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 1d

we know that there's some point where we're very sure a lot of shit will go wrong. we do not have a thorough understanding of how much shit will go wrong at points prior to that. there are a lot of natural systems on our planet which could go very wrong, some of them very rapidly.

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jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 1d

the thing that gets me about climate change is that we don't actually know what happens if the world gets warmer. a lot of our convos are like "we need to limit to <3 degrees celcius warming by 2050" or something like that. some dude made that shit up. we don't know that. it's an informed guess.

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jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 1d

github.com/Card-Forge/f...

GitHub - Card-Forge/forge: An unofficial rules engine for the world's greatest card game.

An unofficial rules engine for the world's greatest card game. - Card-Forge/forge

github.com

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jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 2d

do you think maybe he is cheating such that he can tell when they're going to intentionally walk him

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jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 2d

many will tell you about the card "claw". do not, under any circumstances, give in to the allure of this card. it is a deleterious undesirable and no amount of dealing 3 + 2n damage will heal your damaged soul.

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jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 2d

y'all should check out forge adventure if you're into shandalar and modern magic. it's shandalar but w/ 95%+ of all magic cards ever made. spent the better part of two days playing it, but have reached a complexity burnout point where every card doing three paragraphs of stuff is boring, not fun.

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jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 2d

?????????????????????????????????????????

shohei ohtani's last 13 plate appearances at home are five home runs, two doubles, and six walks (four intentional).

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jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 3d

it is certainly going to be quite architecturally ugly.

jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 3d

i think it's a very bad thing. there's no sincere principle behind it. looking at a man who deserves to be in hell, the most critical thing many people can say about him is "he shows me that america isn't sacred".

jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 3d

but the US has been waging unjust wars with reckless abandon for the better part of a century, so being upset about some extrajudicial killings related to the "war on drugs" (ongoing since 1971) doesn't ring very true.

they're bad, yes, but they don't have much to do with trump.

jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 4d

www.9news.com/article/news... stuff like this has happened within recent memory in the US, with substantial support from the people who are presumably meant to be upset about trump knocking down some of the white house.

Protesters tear down Christopher Columbus statue in Richmond, throw it in lake

The statue was reportedly set on fire prior to it being tossed into the water.

www.9news.com

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jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 4d

it's more like the liberal version of confederate generals having their statues taken down, which i remember celebrating being done illegally very recently.

except maybe somewhat worse because the white house has an ostensible actual purpose, and we're improving its ability to do it.

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jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 4d

criticisms of the president demolishing the east wing of the white house have had almost nothing to do with whether or not the president is ignoring the law, and given that a president were ignoring the law, the consequence of them doing so has to be considered in order to work out if that's bad.

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jorbs @jorbs.bsky.social · 4d

"the US is becoming fascist" is substantial criticism and worthwhile concern, although many would observe that it has been fairly fascist for its entire history. "the US has been the leader of the free world, and it sliding into fascism is a global disaster" will get a lot of eye-rolls.

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