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Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 9h

Championship series predictions:
Mariners in 6.
Dodgers in 7.

Book it.

Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 15h

The ALCS preview for @lookoutlanding.bsky.social has been updated with game-by-game odds. ZiPS gives the M's a 56% chance of advancing to the World Series. Read: www.lookoutlanding.com/series-previ...

AL Championship Series Preview: Mariners vs. Blue Jays

The Mariners advance to the ALCS to face the Blue Jays.

www.lookoutlanding.com

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Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 1d

The Mariners are going to play for the American League Championship.

The Blue Jays await an exhausted Seattle ballclub in what should be a very competitive ALCS. The series preview for @lookoutlanding.bsky.social:
www.lookoutlanding.com/series-previ...

AL Championship Series Preview: Mariners vs. Blue Jays

The Mariners advance to the ALCS to face the Blue Jays.

www.lookoutlanding.com

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Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 2d

Humpy can never lose the Salmon Race ever again. That’s the rule.

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Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 2d

You’re telling me we gotta go through that again for the ALCS? And then again for the World Series. I’m gonna die

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Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 2d

Yeah, the location on the changeup hasn’t been great, but it doesn’t matter. They’re flailing at it anyway.

Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 2d

lol nearly an 80% whiff rate on the changeup for Skubal.

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Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 2d

One of my compulsive responses to stress is deep cleaning. I think it’s my body’s way of channeling that negative energy into something productive. So anyway, the house is spotless ahead of first pitch. You’re welcome?

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Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 2d

From 2021–24, starters who started multiple times during a single postseason series performed worse in their second start:
⬆️ +0.23 ERA
⬆️ +0.52 FIP
⬆️ +.012 wOBA allowed
⬇️ -3.1 K-BB%
That familiarity penalty will be a big factor in Skubal's start against the Mariners tonight.

Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 2d

Tarik Skubal will have a fourth chance at finally beating the Mariners tonight. A look at how Seattle has approached him in the past and if there's a familiarity penalty for starters making multiple starts in a postseason series. My latest for @fangraphs.com: blogs.fangraphs.com/how-did-the-...

How Did the Mariners Beat Tarik Skubal Three Times — And Can They Do It Again?

Did the Mariners have a specific approach against Tarik Skubal that allowed them to beat him three times this season?

blogs.fangraphs.com

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Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 2d

On the Mariners approach:
- Refuse to chase the changeup
- Crush the slider
- Flail at the fastball

They'll need to be patient and wait for Skubal to come into the zone. @johntrupin.bsky.social wrote something similar yesterday -- you should go read it too. www.lookoutlanding.com/the-more-you...

How do the Seattle Mariners beat Tarik Skubal for a 4th time?

Can Seattle strike twice, twice?

www.lookoutlanding.com

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Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 2d

Tarik Skubal will have a fourth chance at finally beating the Mariners tonight. A look at how Seattle has approached him in the past and if there's a familiarity penalty for starters making multiple starts in a postseason series. My latest for @fangraphs.com: blogs.fangraphs.com/how-did-the-...

How Did the Mariners Beat Tarik Skubal Three Times — And Can They Do It Again?

Did the Mariners have a specific approach against Tarik Skubal that allowed them to beat him three times this season?

blogs.fangraphs.com

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Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 4d

The Tigers pounded out 7 extra-base hits on Wednesday, en route to a 9-3 blowout win. The Mariners’ bats went silent after taking a 3-0 lead. I wrote about the momentum shift in the series and the overtaxation of Gabe Speier in my Game 4 recap for @fangraphs.com: blogs.fangraphs.com/tigers-roar-...

Tigers Roar Back, Send ALDS to Game 5

The Tigers’ bats came alive during their Game 4 victory, sending the series back to Seattle for a decisive Game 5.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 4d

Consider this: through the first three games of the ALDS, the Mariners had hit more home runs (six) than the Tigers had extra-base hits (five). Detroit had seven extra-base hits today while Seattle had one. There's your ballgame.

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Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 5d

Here’s a fun fact: 8 runs is the fewest the Mariners have scored in four games in Detroit this year, tied with the 8 they scored on 7/13. They scored 12 and 15 in the other two games. I think they like hitting in Comerica Park.

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Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 5d

lol, Craig, Caleb. Get outs and I’ll remember your first name.

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Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 5d

Craig Ferguson was not the right mop up guy apparently.

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Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 5d

It’s a good feeling to be thinking about which back end bullpen guy is gonna mop up the ninth in a playoff game.

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Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 7d

After their Game 2 win, the Mariners odds to win the ALDS are back up to 51.5%. They were just 29.4% after yesterday’s loss.

Both the M’s and Tigers have scored 5 total runs in this series.

A coin flip feels pretty right.

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Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 7d

And breathe

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Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 7d

After every single pitch, the girls are asking “yeah? or nah?” There’s been a lot of “yeahs” in the last few minutes.

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Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 7d

The Sunday coordination is easily worth at least a run or two

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Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 7d

I wore my City Connect Jersey last night which had been 7-0 during the regular season. Huge mistake. Switched to my home white Felix jersey today. You’re welcome.

Crystal @falloran13.bsky.social · 8d

My favorite part about being a sports fan when your team loses is trying to figure out how this is specifically YOUR fault. Bought the wrong postseason shirt? Didn't pick the right game beverage? Sat when you should've been pacing? Wrong wrong wrong... why couldn't you have been better?!

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Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 8d

This series was always gonna go through Skubal. M’s were gonna have to beat him at least once, and now they’ve gotta do it tomorrow instead of in Game 5.

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Jake Mailhot - y @jakemailhot.bsky.social · 8d

goms

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Reposted by Jake Mailhot - y

Matt Martell @mattmartell.fangraphs.com · 8d

“Hope is a powerful antidote for many woes. It heals and unifies. That’s why those who seek to maintain positions of power also seek to suffocate hope in those who challenge their authority. But as long as hope remains, we keep fighting.”

@kirio.bsky.social on the Mariners, Etsy Witches, and hope:

Must Be the Season of the Witch

The Mariners won the AL West for the first time since 2001. And they did it with a little help from some witchy friends.

blogs.fangraphs.com

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