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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 3h

Tighter credit: Something to monitor is the surge in small businesses reporting that credit was harder to obtain along with the decline in those expecting credit conditions to ease

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 3h

Small businesses remain hesitant to hire and invest amidst elevated policy uncertainty, rising cost pressures, supply chain issues (64%), & labor supply constraints

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 3h

"The Uncertainty Index rose 7pts from August to 100, the 4th highest reading in over 51 years"

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 3h

US NFIB #SmallBusiness Optimism Index fell in Sep

Rising #inflation pressures, slower sales expectations & ongoing labor challenges

🔻Expect to economy to improve 23% (-11pt)
🔻Expect stronger real sales 8% (-4pt)
🟠Plans for + employment 16% (+1pt)
🔥Raising prices 24% (+3pt)

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 21h

Final session of the @nabe-econ.bsky.social Annual Meeting with a line up of former Fed presidents: Harper, Evans and Mester moderated by @mckonomy.bsky.social #NABE2025

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 23h

Fed Chair Powell:

« We do our work »

« Consensus is great, but you have to get it right »

Commenting on independence of Fed and debate amongst FOMC members

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 23h

Fed Chair Powell says transmission of monetary policy remains long and variable amidst unusual uncertainty — conditional on economic conditions

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 23h

Fed Chair Powell: « Labor demand weakening a little faster than labor supply »

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 1d

Powell:« Rising downside risks to employment have shifted our assessment of the balance of risks… we judged it appropriate to take another step toward a more neutral policy stance at our Sep meeting. No risk-free path for policy as we navigate the tension between our employment and inflation goals »

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 1d

Powell« In this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market, the downside risks to employment appear to have risen…. available evidence suggests both layoffs and hiring remain low, and that perceptions of job availability and firms' perceptions of hiring difficulty continue downward trajectories »

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 1d

Powell: « Some have questioned whether the interest we pay on reserves is costly to taxpayers. In fact, that is not the case. Fed earns interest income from the Treasury securities that back reserves. Most of the time, our interest earnings from Treasury holdings more than cover the interest paid»

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 1d

Fed Chair Powell: « Our long-stated plan is to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves are somewhat above the level we judge consistent with ample reserve conditions. We may approach that point in coming months, and we are closely monitoring a wide range of indicators to inform this decision »

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Reposted by Gregory Daco

Michael Derby @michaelsderby.bsky.social · 1d

Fed Powell jokes on balance sheet, "a colleague recently compared this topic to a trip to the dentist, but that comparison may be unfair—to dentists." Says on quantitative tightening stopping point: "we may approach that point in coming months."

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 1d

Fed Chair Powell receiving the Adam Smith Award at the @nabe-econ.bsky.social Annual Conference from #NABE2025 President Emily Kolinski Morris

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 1d

Catherine Mann quoting Barry Eichengreen that you could consider a portfolio of multiple reserve currencies even with a dominant one. The erosion of a currency status occurs over time.

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 1d

Lael Brainard suggesting that the dollar’s exorbitant privilege (borrowing cheap & not worrying about fiscal and current account deficit) is particularly importance given the rise in debt, the importance of convenience yield, tap debt market in times of crisis

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 1d

Carmen Reinhart citing Rudi Dornbush on the importance of free capital flow to ensure dollar strength: « People will come to the party only when they know they can leave whenever they want »

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 1d

Catherine Mann with a metaphor saying that while US is not at risk of losing its reserve currency status in near term, there is a termite-like erosion of its fundamental pillars

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 1d

Superstar panel @nabe-econ.bsky.social Annual Meeting: Monetary Policy Divergence & Currency Wars with Catherine Mann, Lael Brainard, Carmen Reinhart & @jc-econ.bsky.social #NABE2025

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 2d

Stronger Growth, Weaker Hiring: Forecasters See a Split-Screen Economy

Forecasters put the probability of recession in the next 12 months at 33%, unchanged from July.

www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 2d

President Donald Trump’s administration signaled openness Sunday to a deal with China to quell fresh trade tensions while also warning that recent export controls announced by Beijing were a major barrier to talks.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 3d

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Trump’s Dealmaking Diplomacy Grows Fragile as China Fires Back

President Donald Trump’s preference to cut one-to-one deals with allies and adversaries has been the hallmark of his self-proclaimed dealmaking magic, but with the China trade truce seemingly teeterin...

www.bloomberg.com

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 4d

🚨September 2025 CPI Release Rescheduled via @BLS_gov

▶️ Friday, October 24, 2025, at 8:30 A.M.

www.bls.gov/bls/092025-c...

Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 5d

Fed Governor Waller sees more rate cuts

“I want to move towards cutting rates, but you’re not going to do it aggressively and fast, in case you make a big mistake on which way that things go,” he said in a @CNBC interview.

cnb.cx/4o6VaiS

Fed Governor Waller sees more rate cuts but says central bank needs to be 'cautious about it'

Waller continues to support lowering rates but said the central bank needs to be careful amid conflicting economic signals.

cnb.cx

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 5d

Trump's Fed chair candidates list narrowed down to five by Bessent after interviews, sources say: Bowman, Waller, Hassett, Warsh & Rieder

cnb.cx/3WjjoLb

Trump's Fed chair candidates list narrowed down to five by Bessent after interviews, sources say

The Treasury plans to hold another round of interviews with all five candidates in the coming weeks and months.

cnb.cx

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